As of 13 Jan, the M1 Brent futures contract has now breached the $80/bbl mark for the first time since August 2024, with Mar’25 Brent futures climbing to an intraday high of just over $82.50/bbl on 15 Jan, moderating to $81.80/bbl at 0900 GMT on 16 Jan (time of writing). Bullish sentiment in Brent crude has soared after the Biden administration toughened sanctions on Russia on 11 January, targeting Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftgaz along with more than 180 vessels. In line with this recent strength, Onyx’s weekly CFTC COT predictor anticipates speculative players to add risk in Brent, while seeing a small reduction in short positions for the week ending 14 Jan. Managed-by-money long positions are expected to increase by almost 4.8mb, compared to a much larger increase of 42.5mb (+15% w/w) for the week ending 07 Jan, while decreasing their short positions by a further 900kb, after removing 800kb the week prior. Finally, prod/merc players are projected to add 34mb and 40mb to their long and short positions, respectively.
