Apr’25 Brent futures saw a weak beginning to the week ending 4 Feb, trading at $75.20/bbl on 31 Jan, 14:00 GMT. However, the following weekend’s announcement of a slew of tariffs against Canadian, Mexican and later Chinese exports lent significant volatility to the benchmark crude futures contract, taking it up to $77/bbl on 3 Feb. Donald Trump’s subsequent postponement of these tariffs, pushing them by a month, enabled oil prices to quickly correct lower to $74.68/bbl on 4 Feb at 13:00 GMT. Despite seeing some support at this level and jumping to $76.50/bbl later this day, the Apr’25 futures contract fell again to $75.20/bbl on 6 Feb (at 14:00 GMT, time of writing). In line with this price action, Onyx’s CFTC COT predictor expects funds to opt to stay on the sidelines in the midst of this volatility, with money managers predicted to trim 2.4mb from their long positions while liquidating a more muted 265kb from their shorts. Producers/merchants are forecasted to also be risk-off in the week ending 4 Feb, offloading both their longs and shorts.
