Oct’25 Brent futures failed to surpass the $68/bbl level on Thursday afternoon, dropping to lows of $67.40/bbl. Ultimately, prices have traded within a $1 range over the past day. Prices are being buoyed by the 100-day moving average, with $69/bbl acting as short-term resistance. Russia’s Ust-Luga oil export terminal will operate at around 350kb/d in September, around half its usual capacity, following damage to pipeline infrastructure from Ukrainian drone attacks. Phillips 66 will begin shuttering its 139kb/d Los Angeles-area refinery in September, and is expected to lay off most workers (600 employees and 300 contractors) in December. Ukraine said it hit two Russian oil refineries, the Kuibyhsev refinery (140kb/d) and the Afipsky refinery (180kb/d). Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.59/bbl and $1.84/bbl respectively.
