Morning Macro 3rd October
Morning Macro 3rd October
S&P 500 and Nasdaq make new all-time highs with Bitcoin also up +5.7% in 2 days. Meanwhile on the data front weekly jobless claims and factory orders data were postponed and there’s no U.S. payroll data today because of the shutdown.
OIS prices 98% chance of a Fed rate cut at 29th October meeting.
CME to offer 24/7 crypto futures and options trading in 2026
While ADP payrolls data was weak on Wednesday, layoffs on the other hand were weak yesterday, it’s a no hiring no firing economy. Layoffs announcements have decelerated back to rates seen in 2024. (Chart 1, Bloomberg)
Key Economic Data Suspended During Govt Shutdown:
1. Jobless claims (Labor Department)
2. Nonfarm payrolls (BLS)
3. Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index (BLS)
4. Retail sales, factory orders, housing starts, trade data (Census/BEA)
5. Employment Trends Index (Conference Board)
6. GDP data (BEA)
7. New home sales and construction permits (Census Bureau)
8. Export and import trade data (Census/Commerce)
Data today – EZ & UK services PMIs
