Morning Macro 6th October
More stimulus!!!…. Sanae Takaichi is the new Japanese Prime Minister, Japan’s first-ever female leader and she’s coming in swinging with huge stimulus plans. The Nikkei surges 4.75%, Yen falls -1.8% and the Yen curve steepens aggressively with 2-year yields down 4bp while 30-year rallies 13bp. Precious metals love stimulus too with gold and silver both 1% higher, new all-time highs for gold and silver homing in on $50. Bitcoin also makes new record highs touching $125.7k and the US dollar also rallies another 0.5% and seems to be trending higher having bottomed at 93.30.
With no payrolls data on Friday the Goldman Sachs big data payroll tracker shows a rebound for September. Goldman: “Our updated job growth tracker which combines the signal from still-available Big Data measures of job growth, measures of layoffs, and surveys of households and businesses, rebounded to 80k/month in September after falling to a trough around 0k in April and May.” (Chart 1, Goldman Sachs)
Data this week:
1. NY Fed Inflation Expectations data – Tuesday
2. Fed Meeting Minutes – Wednesday
3. Fed Chair Powell Speaks – Thursday
4. MI Consumer Sentiment data – Friday
5. MI Consumer Expectations data – Friday
