America and Russia have a plan to end Ukraine’s slow grilling, but Europe does not like it. The leaders are so incensed they decided to skip their customary relaxing weekend, went to Geneva -life is tough- and threw a proper tantrum. So, the back and forth begins where the plan. The proposed mutual security guarantees poorer and more impotent you are, the angrier you get.
Looking at Flux Insight’s CTA positioning for the week ending 24 Nov, CTA positioning across all of the listed futures contract reached a peak and net dropped as there was a bearish shift across all products and crude contract. This was most clear in RBOB, and the middle distillate contracts. Heating oil reached a high of +28.5k lots on 19 Nov but dropped to +17.24k lots on 24 Nov, its lowest in 20 days. This pattern was similar in gasoil. RBOB was fairly flat around -4k lots 17-19 Nov before dropping to 21-day lows of -16.8k lots on 24 Nov.
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract eased this morning, from $62.75/bbl at 07:00 GMT to $62.02/bbl at 10:00 GMT (time of writing). According to Reuters calculations, Russian state oil and gas revenues are expected to decline by roughly 35% m/m in November, citing lower oil prices and a stronger local currency. The Russian Finance Ministry is set to publish official estimates on 03 December. Elsewhere, a BP statement has confirmed that its 400-mile Olympic pipeline in the US remains offline, with over 200 feet of the pipeline excavated over the weekend; however, the cause of the leak has yet to be identified. In other news, Mozambique has granted its state firms a 30-year concession to build and operate natural gas facilities at the Port of Belra and Inhassoro site; the concession will be operated in part by the national oil firm ENH. In geopolitics, Russia has stated that it has not received an updated peace plan following talks between the US and Ukrainian officials over the weekend. In a statement made on Sunday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified that the peace proposal will continue to be discussed outside of Geneva. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.61/bbl and $1.03/bbl, respectively.
In the week ending 18 Nov, the M1 ICE Brent futures contract saw little to no change, dropping from closing below $65.05/bbl on 11 Nov to a low of $62.35/bbl on 13 Nov and rose to close at $64.92/bbl on 18 Nov, as it continued to be pressured by the 50-day moving average and down trendline. EIA data for the week to 07 Nov showed a larger than expected 6.41mb build in US crude stocks. In its 12 November report, OPEC shifted to a more balanced 2026 outlook, dropping the deficit it had defended throughout the quarter. Brent quickly pulled back to $62/bbl. The IEA also retreated from its earlier “peak oil” stance, acknowledging that demand will likely continue to rise through the decade.
Friday’s markets were driven by the ‘will they – wont they’ focus on the Fed at the 10th Dec meeting. FEDs Williams comment ‘still sees room for a near-term rate cut’ threw the market solidly into a rate cut expectations, with the overnight index swap (OIS) market jumping from 33% to 77% chance they cut. Equities rallied on that news into the weekend and have started this week stronger. Meanwhile US consumer sentiment, has fallen to one of the lowest levels on record. The final November sentiment index dropped to 51 from 53.6 in October, according to the University of Michigan. Views of personal finances were the dimmest since 2009.
Friday’s flash UK PMI for November signalled a renewed acceleration in job losses in the private sector, largely due to rising labour costs and additional pre-Budget uncertainty (Chart 1, S&P global, ONS, HMRC)
Is Oracle the outlier or the canary in the coalmine? Here is Oracle CDS versus IG spreads (Chart 2, @MichaelMOTTCM)
Investors are DUMPING Bitcoin funds at a RECORD pace. Bitcoin ETF $IBIT saw -$523 MILLION in net outflows on Tuesday, the highest EVER. In 5 days, investors withdrew over $1 BILLION from $IBIT. Over the last 3 weeks, crypto funds have seen $3.2 BILLION in net outflows.
Chart 3, Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg, Charles Henry Monchau)
Key data this week
Monday – German IFO business confidence
Tuesday – US PPI, retail sales, ADP employment
Wednesday – UK budget, US jobless claims, PCE inflation, jobless claims, new home sales, Aussies inflation
Thursday – US holiday, UK budget
Friday – Japan CPI, unemployment & retail sales
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves! The Russians are now playing hard to get, as the Kremlin said it prefers to hold discreet talks and Putin only just said he’s received the US peace plan, but wants to discuss the details and denied the rumours it will sign a peace deal on 27 November. Zelenskyy and Ukraine are under increasing pressure from the US to agree to end the war. Significantly, the German government said Germany, France and the UK agreed the current front line should be the ‘starting point’ for peace talks – while simultaneously rejecting other key points of the plan and working on their own… But they have no money, so no honey.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
It’s the first day of a new era! At least that’s what the sanctioneers would like you to believe, as the new set of sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil comes into force today. At least in part, except that any transactions towards the sale of foreign assets or Lukoil’s foreign retail operations can continue until 13 December. But prices don’t care – Brent is even down today, having done its anxious jumping on the announcement of extra tariffs back in October.
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract has fallen this morning, from $62.83/bbl at 06:35 GMT to $62.29/bbl at 10:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, a Bloomberg report has stated that US sanctions on Russian oil majors Lukoil and Rosneft could leave roughly 48mb of Russian crude afloat at sea. According to Kpler data, 50 tankers carrying Urals and ESPO crude, originally destined for China and India, are seeking new destinations; however, Russian crude export flows remain steady at roughly 3.4mb/d over the past 4 weeks. Elsewhere, Tullow Oil has cautioned that its 2025 production may be at the lower end of its forecast (40-45kb/d) due to efforts to meet its capital goals amid increasing debt and overdue payments from the Ghanaian government; according to Reuters, company shares have fallen by as much as 35% to record lows. In other news, BP has reported that its 400-mile Olympic Pipeline remains shut due to a leak earlier this month near Everett, Washington. No timeline of restoration has been given, and the amount of product released and recovered is still being evaluated. On 19 Nov, Washington Governor Bob Ferguson declared an emergency due to the pipeline shutdown, which has interrupted jet fuel supply to the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.59/bbl and $1.07/bbl, respectively.
A crushing day for equities which collapsed after the huge Nvidia earning report. The S&P500 lost $2 trillion in 5 hours while Nvidia opened +6% and closed -3.15% on the day. In fact, S&P500 gapping up over 1.4% and closing lower down more than -1.5% has only happened twice in history (April 2020, and April 2025). Note also liquidity has collapsed, top-of-book S&P liquidity yesterday was $5mm vs $11mm YTD average. Bitcoin falls again, down -8.9% in 2 days and even gold sells off, unable to rally in ‘risk-off’ environment implies hedge funds are liquidating ALL position across asset markets. And of course, the UK doesn’t want to miss out on the bad news. Softening retail sales and higher-than-expected public borrowing data this morning.
Both S&P 500 and the Nasdaq close below key support, S&P 6,552. (Chart 1, Bloomberg) Let’s, see how today plays out, but remember retail traders have record long positions while hedge funds have been short and will add to shorts here. If equities can’t rally on good news ……..
Also note the next key US data, November payrolls, come out on 16th Dec, AFTER the Fed meeting. With the OIS pricing just 33% chance of a Fed cut on 10th, equites will likely direct the OIS market in the short term.
September jobs report beat on the headline +119k jobs created (+51k expected) but it’s old news and usually revised. Jobless claims also rose to 232,000, above estimated number of 223,000. The key for the Fed is the unemployment rate which rose to 4.4% from 4.3%. Even Powell has said the unemployment rate is now more important than payroll numbers. From a trading perspective the U.S. unemployment rate trends very well! (Chart 2, MacroEdge Research)
Private Equity stocks are imploding. (Chart 3, Topdown Charts, LSEG)
UK retail sales fall -1.1% MoM (est 0%), +0.2% YoY (est +1.5%). UK government current budget deficit tracking £15bn more than projected in March at £84bn ytd.
Bitcoin -23.8% so far in November, worst month since June 2022. Third-worst month this decade. As a “Store of Value” lets look at drawdowns from their recent peak, Gold -7.8%, Bitcoin -34% MicroStrategy -68%. Bitcoin has 0.0% return since March 2024 with the gold +96%. And it’s supposed to be defending investors from fiat currency debasement. Despite regular 70% drawdowns!
SoftBank stock falls over -10% as Asian markets open.
Why are stocks falling? Because if you take the numbers in this chart seriously, the hyperscalers will hold at least $2.5 trillion in AI assets by the end of this decade. Assuming a depreciation rate of 20%, that would generate $500 billion in annual depreciation expense. This is more than their combined profits for 2025. (Chart 4, @PeterBerezinBCA)
Trump talking to Try Sec Bessent about Fed Chair Powell (this rhetoric will only increase as equities fall). “I mean, Scott, you got to work on this guy. He’s got some real mental problems. No, there’s something wrong with him. It’s just, sweetheart. I’ll be honest, I’d love to fire his ass. He should be fine. Guy’s grossly incompetent. And he should be sued for spending $4 billion to build a little building…” “..the rates are too high, Scott. And if you don’t get it fixed fast, I’m going to fire your ass, okay?”……. words from a ‘respectable’ President!
This is where the “debasement trade” comes from. Japan’s debt at 240% of GDP leaves no good options. If Japan stabilizes the Yen by allowing yields to rise, there’s a fiscal crisis. If it keeps rates low, the Yen goes back into a devaluation spiral. Too much debt is a killer. (@robin_j_brooks)
Fearing renewed Israeli strikes, Iran asks Saudi Arabia to mediate US nuclear talks revival. Pezeshkian wrote letter to Crown Prince bin Salman before his White House visit, seeking ‘diplomatic solution’
France November business confidence 98 vs 100 expected
Scary chart of the day, which will presumably get worse as AI replaces low-income jobs. (Chart 5, YouGov Poll)
Data today – Global flash PMIs, UniMich consumer & inflation expectations.
This report has been created by The Officials to cover shipping activity around key Indian ports that serve the country’s 14 refineries. The Officials has tracked all the crude vessels and relevant product vessels within 50 nautical miles around the following list of ports: Vadinar, Paradip, Mumbai, Cochin Anch, and Visakhapatnam. The images reflect ships with operational transponders only. The report has been organised by port, displaying the location vessels, which are colour coded by vessel type
In the week ending 18 Nov, the M1 Brent futures contract traded down from $65.03/bbl on 11 Nov to $63.16/bbl on 13 Nov. Prices found support here, rising to $64.92/bbl by the week’s close. Initial pressure in the contract was seen as an OPEC report suggested that global oil supply will closely match demand in 2026, shifting away from its earlier deficit forecast. Meanwhile, the IEA also shifted away from its ‘peak oil’ narrative on 13 Nov, stating that oil demand will likely increase in the next year. However, prices rose as Iran seized an oil tanker shortly after it passed the Strait of Hormuz, signalling growing geopolitical tensions. Dec’25 RBOB futures crack eased this week, from $16.93/bbl on 12 Nov to $16.30/bbl by week’s close. In contrast, Dec’25 ICE gasoil swap crack prices rose from $32.80/bbl on 12 Nov to $38.42/bbl by week’s close.
This week in Brent and ICE gasoil, money managers are expected to cut length and increase shorts; these players are expected to take the opposite stance in RBOB futures. Producers/merchants are anticipated to be risk-on in Brent, adding exposure across the board while taking the opposite stance in ICE gasoil and RBOB.
Further detailed information on other categories and contracts can be found in the report.
The first batch of Chinese refiner import quotas for 2026 are out! According to sources, Hengli got the biggest allowance of 3 mil tons, while Rongsheng got 750 kt and Shenghong got 500+ kt. The market seemed to find a bullish tinge to that and Brent flat price climbed to over $64 again by late morning in London.
The Jan’26 Brent Futures contract rallied all morning from $63.53/bbl at 07:22 GMT to $64.25/bbl at 10:21 GMT (time of writing). In the news, China’s crude oil imports stayed high in October, with record purchases from suppliers like the UAE, Kuwait, Brazil, and Indonesia, though volumes from Russia and Malaysia declined. Official data showed no imports from Iran, Venezuela, or the United States for the fifth straight month. Despite lower refinery throughput from September’s peak, China maintained strong demand while boosting crude stockpiling, as imports exceeded refinery processing by about 690kb/d. In other news, Saudi Aramco has signed 17 preliminary deals worth over $30 Bn with US companies during a visit to Washington by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, focusing on LNG, financial services, and materials manufacturing. These agreements, building on earlier deals potentially worth up to $90 Bn, aim to strengthen collaboration and support Aramco’s growth in the US, including projects like the Lake Charles LNG investment and partnerships with companies like Baker Hughes, Halliburton, Blackstone, and JPMorgan. Recent surge in oil tanker bookings from the Middle East to India indicates higher upcoming import flows, driven by India’s efforts to replace Russian crude due to upcoming US sanctions. So far, about a dozen vessels, including supertankers and Suezmax ships, have been chartered for late November to December. This activity has pushed freight rates to near five-year highs, reflecting increased demand and tighter regional vessel availability, amid efforts by Indian refiners to secure adequate supplies ahead of sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil. Finally, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 spread is at $0.54/bbl and the 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spread is at $1.38/bbl.
U.S. equities jump overnight (Nasdaq futures +1.9&) as Nvidia Q3 earnings destroy expectations, revenue +22% QoQ, sells out of cloud GPUs, will exceed USD200bn in full year earnings (and not a dime earned from China), while The Federal Reserve minutes moved down the markets’ expectations of a December rate cut to just 30%, driven largely by multiple references to inflation by a deeply divided FOMC. Meanwhile another day of Japanese debt fears, yields continue going vertical with 20Y & 40Y JGB yields both just printing record highs, and yet the currency falls another 1.1%.
Nvidia reports record Q3 FY26 results with $57B revenue (+22% QoQ, +62% YoY).
[RTRS] – WHITE HOUSE ASKS CONGRESS TO REJECT BILL CURBING NVIDIA EXPORTS-BLOOMBERG NEWS…… Huge!!!
If there’s any reason to stay bullish on the AI infrastructure buildout, it’s this chart of planned capacity that still needs to be built. An ‘AI Winter’ will be because of power constraints limit the volume of GPUs purchased as future generations require 2-3x the KW per rack. (Chart 1, Aterio, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research)
BofA says a small percentage of data centres are AI ready. Power needs will only grow as future generations of GPUs are released. (Chart 2, BofA Global Research)
Data today – U.S. September jobs report, Philly Fed manufacturing data, Japan inflation
