This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
Brent structure off on a flyer today, with the prompt spread briefly exceeding $1.30! It fell back by the close at $1.20. By contrast, flat price remained relatively contained. It launched an assault on the $69 mark in the late morning and held that into the afternoon, though slipped to $68.49/bbl by the close.
Mercuria was back in the North Sea window, dangling another Midland offer in there. But they offered a 26-30 July Midland at $2.10 over Dated early in the window and then left it to rest there, though it attracted no interest at all. And finally we saw a bid for Forties! After Totsa cleared out Shell’s Forties offer a couple of days ago, Unipec came in today to bid Forties at Dated +$1.30 – massive! It was also a very wide bid, for 13-31 July… And the physical differential jumped to 64c!
The Officials have asked senior personnel at IFAD (ICE is the majority shareholder and operator of the exchange) some questions regarding operations at the exchange and its delivery mechanism for Murban. Murban crude oil is the flagship powering the IFAD exchange and feeds the deliveries on the physical exchange. Based on agreements between ADNOC, its term lifters and equity producers they will use the monthly average price for Murban as formed on the IFAD exchange to set the Official Selling Price for Murban barrels loading two months forward.
The Sep’25 Brent futures contract initially climbed up to $68.73 at 07:27 BST before falling to $68.35/bbl at 08:34 BST. Prices have since jumped up to $68.95/bbl at 11:32 BST (time of writing). In the news, Russia’s oil and gas revenue dropped 33.7% y/y in June, reaching 494.8 Bn roubles ($6.29 Bn) due to weak oil prices and a stronger rouble. Oil and gas revenue also fell by 3.5% compared to May. In the first half of the year, revenue declined by nearly 17% compared to 2024, totalling 4.73 trillion roubles. The government has revised its oil and gas revenue forecast for the year down to 8.32 trillion roubles, from an initial 10.94 trillion. In other news, the Shandong provincial government in China has increased fuel oil import tax rebates for six independent refineries to help improve profitability as they face low margins and reduced fuel demand. The tax rebate increase, which applies to teapot refiners like Chambroad Petrochemicals and Hongrun Petrochemical, boosts the rebate for gasoline and diesel refined from imported fuel oil by 25%. The move aims to encourage these refiners to process fuel oil and tar-like heavy residue into transportation fuels. BlackRock is in talks with Saudi Aramco to divest its stake in the leasing rights of a natural gas pipeline network back to the state oil major, according to a Bloomberg report. BlackRock acquired the stake in 2021, and it is estimated to be worth billions of dollars. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct spread is at $1.22/bbl and the 6-month Sep/Mar’26 spread is at $3.30/bbl.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
The dust is settling from the Prax collapse. Lindsey Refinery is the epicentre, where the radioactive fallout is most intense. But it’s spreading across the entire country’s infrastructure, as Lindsey supplies numerous key transport hubs, including Heathrow Airport. Repeated calls to suppliers and operators including Heathrow Hydrant elicited refusals to comment and lack of clarity as to what, if anything, the Airport is doing to prevent supply disruption. Stories of fat cats gorging on gluttonous bonuses while the business collapsed made it into mainstream media, fuelling public outrage. Net Zero Brains was quick to stick his oar in, demanding an investigation into directors’ conduct and the “circumstances surrounding this insolvency” – maybe he should also look at his suffocating policies…And remember a company is not run as a social service but to generate profit and yes, returns to its owners. So, if anybody is outraged and thinks the business is too good, buy it and run it! The government is also asking Prax creditors to register to come and feast on the carcass. The vultures are circling to get their just desserts!
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Brent flipped bullish today, breaking out of its recent comfy range. This morning, Brent closed at $67.26 but after the close it leapt up, rallying about 80c on its way to $68. According to traders “the mood became increasingly bullish throughout the morning”, Dated was bid, with the prompt dfl implied up to $1.80/bbl. While the geopolitical fluff and war premium have been cast off, we are now back looking at supply and demand balances and complicated models – plus of course the usual speculation about OPEC shenanigans! But we recognize this is very hard because no one seems to have good fundamental data. In a recent interview we said, ‘throw it all in the bin,’ and start over. We are a little bullish, what can we say.
The Sep’25 Brent futures contracts rallied all morning to $67.96/bbl at 11:30 ST (time of writing). In the news, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 680 kb increase in US crude oil inventories for the week ending June 27, reversing a streak of significant inventory draws in the past five weeks. Gasoline inventories grew by 1.92 mb, Distillate inventories fell by 3.46 mb, and Cushing inventories dropped by 1.42 mb. The Department of Energy also reported a 300kb rise in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). In other news, Chinese refiners are continuing to import high volumes of crude from Iran, with first-half imports estimated at nearly 1.4 mb/d, despite official customs data showing no imports from Iran since 2022. Ports near Qingdao, Dalian, and Zhoushan have been major points of entry, with Kpler tracking 15.5 mb of Iranian crude arriving last month alone. The discounted crude has provided Iran with nearly $1B in revenue. US President Trump recently suggested that China could continue importing Iranian oil. Chevron, TotalEnergies, and Eni are among 37 companies competing in Libya’s first energy exploration tender since 2011. Libya has struggled with production due to over a decade of conflict and political instability. The country currently produces around 1.4mb/d, with a target of reaching 2 mb/d before 2030. The new tender covers 22 offshore and onshore blocks, with contracts expected to be signed by the end of 2025. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct spread is at $0.98 /bbl and the 6-month Sep/Mar’26 spread is at $2.57/bbl.
Brent crude futures have consolidated after last week’s sell-off, trading between a narrow $2 range over the week. Prices stabilised just above the span of the Ichimoku cloud of around $66-67/bbl, which will remain an important psychological level going forward. Should this support falter, the lower bound of the cloud around $64/bbl will be the next line of defence, aligning with the support levels seen in May. A break below this could see prices target the lower Bollinger band at $61/bbl. To conquer the upside, prices must pierce the Bollinger band 20-day midpoint, which aligns with the $70/bbl psychological level. Above this, and $71/bbl would quickly come into view, where Q4’24 prices saw lows. Beyond this, prices could face headwinds at $75/bbl, where prices saw resistance in April 2025 and Q4’24, and was also the congestion zone in February.
Trump loves a good electric vehicle. Except for one flaw… “it explodes”. Or burns or something if made by your EX-BFF. You could say that Elon and Donald have an explosive relationship! Trump said Musk “lost a lot more than” just the EV mandate. The gaping hole in Elon’s heart has been filled by bitterness. Hmm, the sparks. And Musk is launching a vendetta against any Congress members who campaigned to reduce spending and voted in favour of the Big Beautiful Bill. It won’t end well. If he has anything to do with it, they will lose their next election! But if Trump gets his way, Musk might get deported before he can launch any further political stratagem. The law to easily remove nationalized citizens is already in the books.
In this podcast, our Onyx Commodities Head of Trading Desks discuss the latest trends and developments in the oil, gas, power and carbon markets in which Onyx Commodities trades. This episode was recorded on Tuesday, 01 July 2025, at 11:30 a.m. London time. Please listen to the end of this podcast for important disclaimers.
Amidst de-escalating tensions in the Middle East, which saw crude and product prices declining more than 10%; in the week ending 27 June 2025, exchange traded futures volumes in Brent front month declined w/w as it was approaching expiry, with August contract volumes falling 37.58%. Gasoil and Heating Oil exchange traded volumes contracts declined across the board w/w. By contrast, WTI futures volumes marginally increased across the three tenors w/w.
When there was no commitment of traders data, technical analysts looked for a workaround to infer overall position changes in the market. The analysis tests joint changes in a futures contract’s price and open interest to determine whether long or short positions were being added or whether long or short positions were covered. These outcomes are illustrated in Table 1 below.
To build our series, we test the conditions in Table 1 below and then qualify the change as one of the four outcomes. We then count the number of occurrences of each outcome in a lookback period to give the percentage of each outcome. The four outcomes over the lookback period always add up to 100%. The look-back period rolls over daily. Table 2 shows the price implications of the four outcomes. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate Open Interest, Volume and Price relations and Open Interest, respectively.
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
