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See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
There has been relentless selling in Brent/Dubai this fortnight – Not just in the front, but a huge amount of selling in the Q1 and Q2’26 differentials too. At the same time, there has been a lot of buying in the Dubai structure, with strong selling, even in backend 2026 boxes. Stopping out from this length drove some weakness. In the past week or two, no one has really bought Brent/Dubai, but prior to this, we had seen quite a lot of buying in the pricing window, between -$1.00/bbl and -80c/bbl.
The Oct’25 Brent Futures contract initially rallied to $68.23/bbl at 15:37 BST before falling to $67.36/bbl at 16:07 BST. Prices have since fallen further to $67.26/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing).In the news, PetroChina has proposed a $5.59 Bn deal to acquire three natural gas storage facilities from its parent company, China National Petroleum Corporation. The acquisition will add nearly 11 Bn cubic meters of gas storage capacity and aims to boost efficiency and support China’s growing reliance on natural gas as it shifts away from coal. In other news, Russia has raised its August crude oil export target from western ports by 200Kb/d to around 2 mb/d after Ukrainian drone strikes shut down refineries, freeing up more crude for export. However, uncertainty remains due to ongoing attacks, shifting repair schedules, and limited vessel availability. Ust-Luga port is operating at half capacity, with some volumes redirected to Novorossiisk and Primorsk. Brazil’s Petrobras could return to Nigeria soon, according to Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, who expressed support during a joint news conference with Brazil’s President Lula da Silva. Petrobras exited Nigeria over a decade ago to focus on domestic priorities, but Tinubu said reforms and improvements in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector now make the country an attractive partner again. Petrobras is reportedly in talks to re-enter Nigerian deepwater exploration and to buy stakes in African assets from ExxonMobil, Shell, and TotalEnergies. Finally, the front-month Oct/Nov spreads are at $0.53/bbl and the 6-month Oct/Apr spread is at $1.49/bbl.
The North Sea physical differential reached a high of $0.70/bbl before falling to $0.49/bbl towards the end of the week. On 22 Aug, BP and Total were on the sell side of WTI Midland. Meanwhile, Gunvor and Petroineos offered Forties. An adequately supplied light sweet crude market offset firming European product cracks.
The Oct’25 Brent crude futures traded between a 50c range from $67.50 to $68/bbl on Friday afternoon. Prices are on track for a weekly rise, but face a technical hurdle at the $68/bbl level, which is where Brent saw support in July and early August. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said only Donald Trump can stop Vladimir Putin as Kyiv’s talks with Washington remain inconclusive, while NATO’s Mark Rutte outlined plans for dual security guarantees to strengthen Ukraine’s defences and deter future Russian aggression. Kazakhstan’s environment ministry has reimposed a $4.4 billion sulphur pollution fine on oil majors at the Kashagan field, giving them 40 days to pay despite a recent court ruling in their favour, with operators calling the penalty “unprecedented” and pledging to appeal. A Ukrainian missile and drone strike on Russia’s Unecha pumping station has temporarily halted Druzhba pipeline oil flows to Hungary and Slovakia for at least five days, prompting protests from Budapest and Bratislava over energy security while Trump expressed anger at the attacks ahead of his talks with Putin. Serbia’s Gazprom-owned oil company NIS has requested a sixth US sanctions waiver to keep securing crude supplies for its Pancevo refinery, as its current exemption expires on August 27. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.50/bbl and $1.45/bbl respectively.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Sep’25 0.5 Bgs Crack and the Sep’25 EBOB Crack
After a painfully sideways start to the week, the M1 (Oct’25) Brent futures contract has seen an uptick, climbing from the $65-66/bbl corridor to printing at $67.55/bbl at the time of writing on 21 Aug. This support materialised alongside an EIA-reported draw of over 6mb in the week ending 15 Aug.
The Oct’25 Brent crude futures traded within a $1 range on Thursday afternoon between $66.80 and $67.60/bbl. Prices are on track to finish the day higher, having broken out of the past fortnight’s trading range, with the 20-day moving average at $68/bbl being the next hurdle to break. President Trump insinuated in a social media post that he’s open to Ukraine launching more attacks on Russia, as the White House looks to pressure Putin to agree to a one-on-one meeting with Zelenskyy. India has pledged to keep buying Russian oil if it remains financially beneficial, signalling closer energy ties with Moscow despite US pressure and looming tariff threats. Two tankers chartered by Chevron carrying Venezuelan crude reached US waters on Thursday, marking the first US imports of the country’s oil following a new license granted by Washington. The Trump administration plans to rule on a backlog of small refinery biofuel exemption requests this week while delaying a decision on whether larger refiners must compensate for waived gallons, a move that could significantly affect fuel, farm, and credit markets. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.51/bbl and $1.43/bbl respectively.
The October Brent Futures contract has seen a mixed afternoon, initially rangebound between $66.35/bbl and $66.70/bbl before selling off post EIA stats release down to $66.18/bbl at 4 pm BST and subsequently rallying back up to $66.75/bbl at the time of writing (17:30 BST). In headlines, South Korea is urging its petrochemicals industry to cut excess capacity and restructure as a global glut has depressed margins, with Asian producers squeezed by China’s cheaper, fast-growing output and European firms hurt by high energy costs. The government said the country’s 10 largest companies will slash naphtha-cracking capacity by up to 25%, curbing production of ethylene, propylene, and other key plastics feedstocks. In other news, global oil demand rebounded in June, rising 1.23mb/d from May, as highlighted in JODI data on Wednesday, the rise was driven mainly by the US, with smaller gains in Canada, Italy, the UK, and South Korea, while supply growth lagged, leaving inventories below the five-year average. At the time of writing, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent Futures spreads are at $0.50/bbl and $1.26/bbl.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
A persistent trend in the Dated Brent complex this month has been one-week rolls selling off into pricing, revealing that the strength implied in the curve fails to materialise in the physical. Aligning with this, we saw significant 18-22 Aug vs Cal Sep buying last week and over the past couple of days; however, the 18-22 Aug one-week roll fell from printing +$0.37/bbl at the end of last week to negative at the start of this week, although it is now bid at +$0.10/bbl.
Oct’25 futures reached resistance at $66.20/bbl this afternoon between 15.00-17.00 BST, but softened to $65.90/bbl at 17.26 BST at the time of writing. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that, after the Washington summit, Ukraine is now working with allies. “We are now actively working at all levels on the specifics, on what the architecture of the guarantees will look like, with all members of the Coalition of the Willing, and very concretely with the United States,” he writes in a post on X. US oil and gas mergers and acquisitions tripled to $206.6 billion in 2024, driven by megadeals from Exxon Mobil, Diamondback Energy, and ConocoPhillips, according to an Ernst & Young report. Companies shifted focus from shareholder payouts to growth and efficiency, with Exxon leading at $84.5 billion in acquisitions, including its $60 billion purchase of Pioneer Natural Resources. Germany said Kazakh oil flows to its Schwedt refinery via Russia’s Druzhba pipeline were briefly disrupted by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure but have since been restored without affecting supply security. Kazakhstan confirmed exports remain unaffected, with shipments to Germany up 38% y/y in Jan-Jul to 1.086 million mt. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused India of profiteering from cheap Russian oil, telling CNBC that Russian crude now makes up 42% of India’s imports, compared with less than 1% before the war. He contrasted this with China, where Russian oil’s share has risen only slightly, to 16% from 13%. He said India was engaging in “arbitrage” by reselling Russian oil as refined products, which he called “unacceptable”. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.49/bbl and $1.18/bbl, respectively.
This afternoon Oct’25 futures reached a low of $65.30/bbl at 14.35 BST but strengthened to $66.18/bbl at 17.52 BST, a level we have seen resistance from around midday yesterday. European leaders are at the White House for Ukraine talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump. Zelensky said Ukraine is ready for a ceasefire and a new security framework, after accusing Vladimir Putin of trying to undermine diplomacy with strikes. Trump’s envoy claimed Putin agreed to strong security guarantees, possibly NATO-style, though Moscow has not commented. China’s refined fuel exports hit 5.34 million mt in July, the highest since June 2024, driven by surging shipments of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel. Strong refinery runs, with crude throughput at 14.85 mb/d, supported the rise despite a slight dip from June’s near two-year high. Brazil’s ANP granted Petrobras and CNOOC an 18-month extension to explore the Aram block in the Santos Basin pre-salt, shifting the deadline to 30 June 2029. The consortium is drilling two deepwater wells after recent hydrocarbon discoveries. Top US and Iraqi officials met to discuss restarting oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region, halted since March 2023 amid disputes over export authority. Before the shutdown, flows averaged over 400kb/d, but disagreements with foreign oil firms and recent drone attacks on oilfields have stalled progress. Ukraine said it hit the Nikolskoye pumping station on the Druzhba pipeline, disrupting oil flows to Hungary and Slovakia. The attack comes as President Zelenskyy visits Washington for talks with Donald Trump, while Moscow has yet to comment. Pakistan is set to roll out a real-time digital tracking system this month to monitor petroleum products from import to retail, aiming to curb smuggling and black marketing. Backed by the Petroleum (Amendment) Act 2025, the system will enable regulators to track fuel across the supply chain and enforce penalties for illegal trade. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.55/bbl and $1.34/bbl, respectively.
This week, we expect oil prices to remain pressured and inch down to between $63.00-65.00/bbl. We focus on the following three drivers of price action this week: President Trump’s meeting with Putin over the weekend caused little splash in the
In the week ending 15 August, refinery margins fell down the forward curve, with M1 Asian Refinery Margins down to $7.78/bbl and M1 European margins to $8.25/bbl.
Weakening across the Dubai cracks were the main driver in Asian Margins, with the GO/Dubai crack falling by $2.14/bbl w/w and the Kero and 380 Cracks falling by $1.55/bbl and $1.50/bbl respectively.
Similarly, in Europe Gasoil Crack fell by $1.60/bbl, and the 3.5 Bgs Crack fell by $1.20/bbl w/w.
Gasoil Cracks saw the largest drop on a Monthly basis, with the M1 Crack in Europe falling by $3.71/bbl, the GO/Dubai Crack fell by $7.47/bbl and the Asian M1 GO/Brent Crack falling by $9.13/bbl.
