Distillates

Sep’25 Brent futures contract continued to rally this afternoon to $70.25/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing). US Gulf Coast fuel oil imports dropped to a record low of 213 kb/d in June. Reuters reported that refiners chose cheaper heavy sour crude, like Mexico’s Maya, over high-priced high-sulphur fuel oil. This shift reduced imports and stocks, with Gulf Coast fuel oil inventories falling to 10.63 mb, their lowest since March 1996. According to its SEC filing, ExxonMobil warned that lower crude, NGL, and gas prices may cut Q2 earnings by $1.1–1.9 Bn. Despite the outlook, ExxonMobil shares rose 2% in Tuesday morning trading. Officials have set a provisional two-week deadline to find a buyer for Prax Lindsey refinery, which supplies 10% of the UK’s fuel and remains operational under a temporary crude supply deal with Glencore, amid insolvency proceedings and an investigation into its owners over £250 million in tax debts. Restructuring specialists FTI Consulting have begun canvassing interest in the 400-employee site and may also market other Prax Group assets. JODI reported that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production increased by 48 kb/d in April, while crude exports jumped by 412 kb/d. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct and the 6-month Sep/Mar spreads are at $1.17/bbl and $3.30/bbl, respectively.

The Sep’25 Brent futures contract continued rallying all afternoon to $69.54/bbl at 17:37 BST (time of writing). In the news, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney expressed strong confidence that a proposed oil pipeline to the Pacific coast will likely be included in Canada’s list of national interest projects. Carney emphasised that the private sector will drive the pipeline proposal, with the federal government aiming to fast-track such projects. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith indicated that a private company could soon propose the pipeline, with a target of transporting 1 mb/d. The Trans Mountain expansion remains the only active pipeline for exporting Alberta’s crude to the West Coast. In other news, ExxonMobil, leading a consortium with QatarEnergy, has discovered a natural gas reservoir off Cyprus’ coast. Drilling at the Pegasus-1 well revealed a gas-bearing layer of 350 meters at a depth of 1.9 km. Further evaluation will be conducted in the coming months to assess the discovery. This marks the second gas find in Block 10, following the Glaucus-1 discovery in 2019. While Cyprus has found gas in several areas, it has yet to commercialise the resources. Ecuador’s private OCP pipeline, which transports heavy crude, resumed operations on today after a precautionary suspension on 1 July due to heavy rains. The restart followed the completion of a bypass built to address erosion along the Loco River in the Amazon region, the company reported. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct and the 6-month Sep/Mar spreads are at $1.16/bbl and $3.23/bbl respectively.

The Sep’25 Brent crude futures saw a quiet Friday afternoon, trading between $68 and $68.50/bbl. Prices are on track for a weekly gain after seeing sideways action following last week’s rout. The UK’s insolvent Lindsey oil refinery faces shutdown within 3 weeks with the current 1.8mb of crude it has in storage. According to Woodmac analyst Emma Howsham, crude throughputs are likely scaled back with yesterday’s FCC shutdown, operating in the less profitable hydroskimming configuration. Nonetheless, the Official Receiver (officer of the Insolvency Service of the UK) reached a deal with Glencore overnight for the trade house to continue to supply crude oil to the refinery. In other news, Trump and Zelenskyy discussed boosting Ukraine’s air defences and joint military cooperation amid escalating Russian strikes, following Trump’s call with Putin and a major drone attack on Kyiv. Finally, the front (Sep/Oct) and 6-month (Sep/Mar) Brent futures spreads are at $1.07/bbl and $2.77/bbl respectively.

The Sep Brent Futures contract has seen a choppy afternoon session, trading gradually down from $69.07/bbl at 13:00 BST to $68.64/bbl where it prints at the time of writing (17:25 BST). In headlines, the Arabian Gulf Oil Company (AGOCO), a subsidiary of Libya’s National Oil Corporation, has completed repairs on the Hamada-Zawiya crude oil pipeline after a leak was detected in late May, temporarily halting crude flows. The pipeline supplies Libya’s largest refinery in Zawiya, which processes up to 120kb/d and is linked to the 300kb/d Sharara oilfield. Meanwhile, India has voiced concerns over a proposed US bill by Senator Lindsey Graham that would impose a 500% tariff on imports from countries buying Russian oil. Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said the issue has been raised with US lawmakers, noting that President Trump appears to support the bill. Finally, at the time of writing, the front (Sep/Oct) and 6-month (Sep/Mar’26) Brent spreads were at $1.16/bbl and $3.05/bbl.

The Sep’25 Brent futures contract fell off to 67.24/bbl at 15:32 BST. Prices then rallied to $68.35/bbl at 16:56 BST before softening to $68.25/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, India is considering building three new sites to expand its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which currently has a capacity of about 39 mb equivalent to eight days of the country’s oil consumption. The proposed new sites include locations in Mangalore, Bikaner (Rajasthan), and Bina (Madhya Pradesh). The move aims to increase India’s reserves to 90 days’ worth of oil consumption (current reserves are 75 days worth including private) , allowing the country to meet International Energy Agency (IEA) requirements. In other news, Kazakhstan’s energy ministry announced the cancellation of plans to build a gas processing plant at the Karachaganak field, which was initially set to be developed with foreign shareholders. The field, operated by the Karachaganak Petroleum Operating consortium, had previously agreed to build a gas processing plant, set to start operations in 2028. The ministry did not explain the reason behind halting the project, though some industry sources suggested it was linked to ongoing legal disputes with the foreign companies. A group led by Vitol has submitted a bid of over $10B in the final phase of the court-organized auction for shares in PDV Holding, the parent company of Citgo Petroleum. This auction aims to compensate creditors seeking to recover nearly $19B after Venezuela expropriated assets and defaulted on debt. Vitol had previously participated in earlier bidding rounds, but new bidders have emerged with improved offers. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct and 6-month Sep/Mar’26 spreads are at $1.05/bbl and $2.78/bbl respectively.

The September Brent Futures contract has seen a mixed afternoon, peaking at $67.50/bbl at noon, before being sold off following the US open to a low of $66.70/bbl, and rebounding up to $67.08/bbl at the time of writing (17:30 BST). In headlines, Kazakhstan’s crude oil production surged by 7.5% in June to 1.88 mb/d, matching its record high from March and significantly exceeding its OPEC+ quota of 1.5 mb/d, reflecting a continued trend of noncompliance, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, Norway’s Equinor and its partners announced a $1.3 billion (13 billion NOK) investment in Phase 3 of the Johan Sverdrup oilfield, adding two subsea templates and new pipelines to boost recoverable volumes by 40–50 mboe, with production expected by late 2027. In Asia, Indonesia has introduced new regulations to attract oil drilling technology providers to help revive idle wells and raise national oil output from under 6 kb/d to 1 mb/d by 2029–2030, according to Deputy Energy Minister Yuliot Tanjung. At the time of writing, the front (Sep/Oct) and 6-month (Sep/Mar’26) Brent spreads are at $0.90/bbl and $2.22/bbl, respectively.

The Sep’25 contract dropped to $67.49/bbl at 14:10 BST before rallying up to $67.78/bbl at 14:48 BST. Prices are at $67.64/bbl at 17:55 BST (time of writing). In the news, Kazakhstan is set to exceed its 2025 oil production forecast by about 2%, with output now expected to reach 97.7mt (2 mb/d), up from 96.2 mt. This increase comes from higher output at major oilfields like Tengiz, Kashagan, and Karachaganak. Kazakhstan has consistently exceeded its OPEC+ quotas. KazMunayGaz raised its projections for Tengiz by 900 kt, Kashagan by 200 kt, and Karachaganak by 360kt. In other news, the US Supreme Court has agreed to hear Enbridge’s bid to move Michigan’s lawsuit, which seeks to stop the operation of its Line 5 pipeline beneath the Straits of Mackinac, to federal court. The dispute centres on the ageing Line 5 pipeline, which carries 540kb/d of crude and refined products from Wisconsin to Ontario, with a four-mile section running underwater through the Straits of Mackinac. Environmentalists are concerned about the risk of oil leaks. Analysts slightly raised their oil price forecasts after tensions in the Middle East, but rising OPEC+ supply and a cautious demand outlook continue to weigh on prices, according to a Reuters poll. The poll expects Brent crude to average $67.86/bbl in 2025, up from $66.98/bbl last month. While the Iran-Israel conflict caused price fluctuations, analysts view any price spikes as temporary unless the situation escalates. Rising OPEC+ output and comfortable inventories should keep prices in check. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $0.88/bbl and $2.95/bbl, respectively.