– In the week ending 11 July, refinery margins declined slightly across all tenors, except for Q1’26 for Asian refineries, which increased by 0.13.
– On a month-on-month basis, all margins have increased, with M1 in Europe and the US showing the largest rises of 2.33 and 2.96, respectively.
– Despite M2 and M3 being slightly higher than M1 on the Asian refinery forward curve, the rest of the curve remains in contango. The higher M2/M3 margins are driven by stronger M2 levels across the cracks, with MOPJ, kerosene, gasoil, and 380 Dubai cracks priced higher over the past month. The M2 92 Dubai crack was priced higher on 11 July.
– The European refinery forward curve similarly showed a higher-priced M2, with prices further along the curve also elevated, as M9 through M12 traded above M8. Both M2 and Q4’25 saw higher prices across naphtha cracks.
– The US refinery forward curve is in contango from M1 through M7, but prices jump at M8 and remain higher than M7 through to M12.