NGLs

The Jun’25 Brent crude futures climbed steadily on Thursday, from around $66.20/bbl at 08:00 BST to $66.90/bbl by 13:30 BST, surpassing highs reached earlier in the morning. Prices are trading at their highest levels in two weeks, and are on track for their first weekly rise in three. New sanctions on Iranian oil exports have increased supply concerns. In the news, Russian Arctic oil exports to China have surged this month, driven by ship-to-ship transfers off Southeast Asia that help sanctioned cargoes avoid scrutiny, as Chinese refiners continue to buy despite rising costs and logistical hurdles. Russia has warned that new Estonian legislation allowing naval force against foreign vessels threatens Baltic Sea security, following Estonia’s recent seizure of a Russian-sanctioned ship from the so-called shadow fleet. A German heating oil platform saw record-breaking orders on April 9 as consumers rushed to stock up when crude prices plunged to four-year lows, highlighting price-sensitive buying behaviour in Europe’s largest heating oil market. Saudi Arabia’s expansion of refinery-integrated petrochemical units, including a new Aramco-Sinopec project at the Yasref site, is expected to further reduce naphtha exports as more volumes are redirected to steam crackers and aromatics production, with limited immediate impact on gasoline output. Finally, the front (Jun/Jul) and 6-month (Jun/Dec) Brent futures spreads are at $0.92/bbl and $2.80/bbl respectively.

This afternoon the Jun’25 Brent Futures contract saw prices rally to $66.07/bbl at 15:44 BST before coming down to $65.57/bbl at 16:14 BST. Prices have since gained some support and are at $66.09/bbl 18:20 BST (time of writing). In the news, Turkey’s top oil refiner, Tupras, has resumed purchases of Russian Urals crude after a pause earlier this year due to US sanctions, sources told Reuters. The move comes as Urals crude prices dropped below the Western price cap to their lowest since 2023. Tupras was a major importer of Russian oil post-2022, with it making up 65% of Turkey’s oil imports through most of 2024. US crude inventories rose by 515 kb last week to 442.9 mb, despite a sharp increase in exports to 5.1 mb/d. Gasoline and distillate stocks both declined (distillates fell by 1.9 mb and gasoline by 2mb). Crude stocks at Cushing fell by 654 kb , and refinery activity dipped slightly. Crude futures rose about 1.5% following the report. In other news, the US has imposed new sanctions on Iran’s oil sector, targeting a Chinese teapot refinery and several companies and vessels involved in facilitating Iranian crude shipments. The move is part of President Trump’s renewed “maximum pressure” campaign while negotiations over its nuclear program continue. Despite sanctions, China remains Iran’s top oil buyer, using yuan and intermediaries to bypass US restrictions. Finally the front month Jun/Jul and 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $0.89/bbl and $2.60/bbl respectively.

The Jun’25 prompt Brent futures contract saw a volatile afternoon, with prices jumping quickly up to $65.13/bbl at 15:15 BST before dropping down to $ 64.24/bbl at 16:46 BST only to move up to $64.70/bbl at 18:20 BST (time of writing). In the news, Nigeria plans to establish a national strategic petroleum products reserve this year to protect its economy from global supply disruptions, according to the country’s petroleum regulator. It will be supported by expanding domestic refining, especially the 650kb/d Dangote Refinery and five smaller plants, which have already cut fuel imports significantly. India’s average crude oil import price dropped below $70/bbl this month for the first time since 2021, falling 17.87% from March to $69.39/bbl. This decline, driven by global trade and tariff tensions, may lead to lower fuel prices for consumers and increased purchases by refiners. With crude import dependence hitting a record 88.2% in the current fiscal year, India continues to rely heavily on imports amid flat domestic production. However, US trade policies and rising tariffs could dampen future growth. In other news, TotalEnergies expects a nearly 4% rise in Q1 oil and gas production. Its exploration and production division will benefit from higher output and slightly better prices than late 2024, while LNG results should improve year-on-year but fall short of Q4. Refining and chemicals are expected to remain flat due to weaker petrochemical and biofuel margins in Europe. Finally the front month Jun/Jul spreads and 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $0.72/bbl and $1.93/bbl respectively.

The Jun’25 Brent futures contract rallied up to $65.81/bbl at 12:15 BST before falling off to $64.12 /bbl at 17:12 BST and have currently slightly bounced back up to $64.37/bbl at 17:32 BST (time of writing). OPEC cut its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast by 150 kb/d to 1.30 mb/d, citing weaker-than-expected Q1 data and US trade tariffs. It also trimmed its economic growth forecast for 2024 and 2025. Despite the cut, OPEC remains more optimistic than the IEA, which sees demand peaking this decade. Meanwhile, OPEC+ output dipped slightly in March due to lower production from Nigeria and Iraq, though Kazakhstan exceeded its quota again and plans to compensate for the overproduction in April. China’s crude oil imports surged to 12.mb/d in March, the highest since August 2023, driven by a rebound in Iranian and Russian oil flows. Customs data showed total imports at 51.41 million mt, up from early 2025 levels. Seaborne imports hit 10.6 mb/d, boosted by record Iranian crude arrivals in Shandong, while Russian oil also made a comeback via sanctioned and dark fleet tankers using ship-to-ship transfers. In other news, the Keystone oil pipeline, shut last week due to a 3,500-barrel leak near Fort Ransom, North Dakota, is expected to resume service by Tuesday, April 15, pending approval from US regulators. Operator South Bow isolated the affected segment and contained the spill, but authorities required further inspections, testing, and repairs before restart. Finally the front month Jun/Jul spreads and the 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $0.65/bbl and $ 1.92 /bbl respectively.

The Jun’25 Brent Futures contract saw prices dropping to $62.96 at 14:31 BST and have since rallied up to $64.12/bbl at 17:35 BST (time of writing). Two Chevron-chartered tankers carrying Venezuelan crude are stranded after PDVSA revoked their export clearances, following new US secondary tariffs on Venezuelan oil buyers. Chevron, authorized to ship oil until late May, must now get customs approval to return the cargoes. A third tanker was blocked from loading. Chevron’s joint ventures produce 25% of Venezuela’s output and has exported some 250 kb/d to the US in the first quarter under its license, granted in 2022 . Recent US sanctions have disrupted exports with Venezuela calling them an “economic war.” In other news, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the US could stop Iran’s oil exports as part of President Trump’s renewed pressure on Tehran over its nuclear program. Wright noted that halting Iran’s oil flow is “very doable,” pointing to similar efforts during Trump’s first term. While Iran’s oil exports rebounded under President Biden, they have yet to fall in 2025. China remains a major buyer, defying US sanctions. Wright didn’t detail how the US would enforce the new measures but stated that “everything is on the table,” including military options if diplomacy fails. He also predicted a positive outlook for oil markets under Trump’s policies, suggesting stable prices and improved profitability driven by deregulation and innovation. Despite no direct coordination with OPEC+, Wright said Gulf allies share the U.S. view that “the world needs more energy.” Finally, the front month Jun/July and 6-month Jun/Dec Brent future spreads are at $0.73/bbl and $2.10/bbl.

Jun’25 Brent Futures dropped to almost $62.00/bbl around 15.08 BST before recovering to around $63.60/at 16.40 BST and is around $62.75/bbl at 17.35 BST (time of writing). The EIA cut the non-OPEC 2025 supply growth estimate to 1.26mb/d (was 1.43 mb/d), and cut the 2026 estimate to 1.08mpbd (was at 1.27mb/d). Brazil’s government is planning an additional auction of offshore oil stakes this year. In a “worst-case” scenario, the auction, expected by September, will target uncontracted parts of the Tupi, Mero, and Atapu pre-salt fields to raise up to $3.4 billion. The move is seen as a strategic move to offset revenue shortfalls. TotalEnergies EP Namibia, along with partners Namcor and Qatar Energy, plans to produce 160,000 barrels of oil per day from the proposed offshore Venus Field, with storage for two million barrels and a gas separation capacity of 550,000 MMscfd. The US Dollar Index is down 1.7% in the day and USD/CAD is near its lowest level since November. There was a drop of around 5.4mb in Japanese crude inventories last week. The front-month Jun/Jul and 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $0.54/bbl and $1.50/bbl, respectively.

The prompt Jun’25 Brent Futures saw prices rally up to $61.03/bbl at 14:40 BST before falling down to $59.61 around 16:10 BST. Prices have since crawled back up to $60.59/bbl at 17:40 and have jumped up to $64.90 at 18:54 BST (time of writing). Analysts warn US oil companies may slash capital spending and share buybacks to preserve cash. Many producers now face breakeven prices above $62/bbl, factoring in dividends and debt service, with companies like Exxon and Chevron needing up to $95/bbl to fully cover payouts. Analysts expect cautious earnings guidance later this month if prices stay low. US  crude stockpiles rose by 2.6 mb last week, as imports increased and exports fell to their lowest since January, according to the EIA. Exports dropped by 637 kb/d to 3.2 mb/d, while imports rose to nearly 3 mb/d. Reuters report that analysts voiced concerns that falling demand and rising trade tensions, especially with China’s new 84% tariffs on US. goods, may signal broader economic weakness. In other news, Saudi Arabia has discovered 14 new oil and gas fields across the Eastern Province and the Rub’ al Khali, boosting its upstream reserves. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman called it a strategic milestone that reinforces the Kingdom’s energy future. The news follows Saudi Aramco’s sharp price cut for May Arab Light crude to Asia. Finally, the front month Jun/July and 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at  $0.48/bbl and $1.18/bbl respectively.