Morning Macro 7th October
Another day, same headline. Gold, S&P500, Nasdaq & Bitcoin make new all-time highs, maybe, just maybe the Fed doesn’t need the 102bp cuts priced by the OIS over the next 12 months, but beware rising yields is what killed to 2022 rally. Adding fuel to the fire we’re getting some wile equity predictions for 2026 including the chance that the S&P500 reaches 9,000 (currently 6,740). Meanwhile in the real world we have weak German data this morning, and China increasing its strategic oil reserve facilities.
GERMANY AUG. FACTORY ORDERS FALL 0.8% M/M; EST. +1.2% – BBG
GERMANY AUG. FACTORY ORDERS RISE 1.5% Y/Y; EST. +3.1%
CHINA PLANS 11 NEW STRATEGIC OIL RESERVE FACILITIES BY 2026
AMD closes +23.7% on news of a deal with OpenAI setting it on a path to challenge Nvidia. In response Nvidia falls -1.1%. Yet Nvidia represents 5.04% of the MSCI All Country World Index. The MSCI ACWI Index captures ~85% of global equity markets, including large and mid-cap stocks. Nvidia’s weight now significantly surpasses Japan’s 4.78% share, the world’s 3rd-largest stock market. By comparison, China, the UK, and Canada account for 3.33%, 3.23%, and 2.92%, respectively.
Gold futures officially closed above $4,000 as The People’s Bank of China has reported that its gold reserves rose by 1 tonne in September – now 11 consecutive months that its gold holding have increased. Gold reserves now total 2,304 tonnes, 24 tonnes higher than at the end of 2024.
At silver’s historic peaks, the silver/gold ratio hit 5.8% (1980) and 3.0% (2011). Today? Just 1.2%. (Chart 1, @yuriymatso)
Trilogy Metals stock, TMQ, surges over +210% after the US government announces it will be taking a 10% stake in the company.
The trump administration now holds strategic equity positions including:
• 10% stake in Intel ($INTC)
• 15% stake in MP materials ($MP)
• 10% stake in Lithium Americas ($lac)
• 10% stake in Trilogy Metals ($TMC)
• a “golden share” in U.S. Steel corporation and has floated taking equity in major defence contractors as part of its national industrial policy.
Goldman raises its “Dec2026 gold price forecast to $4,900/oz (vs. $4,300 prior) because the inflows driving the 17% rally since August 26th – Western ETF inflows and likely central bank buying – are sticky in our pricing framework”……….. a very brave call, LOL, even I could do that!!
Paul Tudor Jones said today on CNBC right now feels a lot like 1999 and that he thinks we could be heading for a blow off top……. While YARDENI LIFTS S&P 500 TARGET TO 7,000 ON ECONOMIC STRENGTH Yardeni Research raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,000, citing a resilient U.S. economy and improved sentiment after Trump’s trade resolution……. And even more bullish EVERCORE: S&P 500 COULD HIT 9,000 BY 2026 IN ‘BUBBLE’ SCENARIO… Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel says the S&P 500 could reach 9,000 by 2026 under a bubble scenario, up from the firm’s base target of 7,750.
You probably don’t own enough copper stocks (Charet 1, @minenergybiz)
UK September Halifax house prices -0.3% vs +0.2% m/m expected
Data today – NY Fed Inflation Expectations data
