09 June 2025: 09:30 BST
Some OSPs bring joy, others bring pain. Joy for consumers ready to gobble up cheap crude, against pain of producers squeezed by low prices. The Murban/Dubai debacle had ADNOC up in arms, frustrated its ‘most valuable’ grade was setting the benchmark, pricing below the heavier, sourer Upper Zakum. For July, Murban is set at $63.62/bbl, down over 4 bucks from June pricing, with Upper Zakum set at a 10c premium, Das at Murban -55c and Umm Lulu at Murban +15c. The 10c UZ/Murban inversion is minor stuff compared to the downward flat price correction. This is real money! Imagine you produce 4 mil b/d and export 3 mil b/d, (this is just illustrative) but this would mean $12 million less revenue per day or $360 mil less per month. We’ll be talking billions if the market doesn’t recover and persistent overproduction continues. You cannot overproduce and have no price impact. In other words: you can’t have your cake and eat it!
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
We invite you to read our reports, which will initially be published twice a day, reflecting closing values at 16:30 Singapore time (SGT) and at 16:30 London time (GMT/BST). For any comments, please reach out to us through the emails provided in the signed documents.
