The Aug’25 Brent futures contract strengthened from $65.25/bbl around 13:00 BST this afternoon to $66.48/bbl at 14:40 BST, where it met resistance. Despite finding resistance at this level again at around 15:40 BST, the M1 futures contract ultimately climbed to $66.60/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing). This support in the futures contract may have emerged from players being reluctant to leave short risk over the weekend. US non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May (Apr’25: downwardly revised 147,000), slightly above forecasts of 130,000. Despite the m/m decline in job growth, the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month as 625,000 people dropped out of the labour force. Jobs in the federal government declined by 22,000 in May, marking a decline of 59,000 since January 2025. In other news, Spain’s imports of Venezuelan oil reportedly dried up in April amid a 27 May US sanctions deadline set by the Trump administration. HSBC expects OPEC+ to accelerate supply hikes in August and September 2025 by 411kBrent/Dubai and 274kBrent/Dubai, respectively. Finally, at the time of writing, the Aug/Sep’25 and the Aug/Feb’26 Brent futures spreads were trading at $0.75/bbl and $1.90/bbl.
