The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally to $62.78/bbl at 17:17 BST before slightly coming off to $62.20/bbl at 18:20 BST (time of writing). In the news, Saudi Arabia is considering shifting towards a market share strategy in a bid to punish OPEC+ members defying quotas, but weakening global demand could blunt its strategy. OPEC+ has already agreed to unwind nearly 1mb/d of cuts by June. While Riyadh can afford short-term losses, a prolonged slump could destabilize OPEC+ and threaten Saudi Arabia’s grip on oil markets. In other news, US shale producers in the Permian Basin are cutting spending and reducing rig counts amid a sharp decline in crude prices below $60/bbl. Diamondback Energy and Coterra Energy announced over $500 million in combined budget cuts this week, joining peers like EOG Resources and Matador Resources in scaling back operations. Nabors Industries projects a 4% drop in US shale rigs by year-end. This retreat comes as US oil futures have fallen 17% year-to-date, driven by escalating tariffs under President Trump and OPEC+’s surprise decision to accelerate production increases. Argentina expects to post an $8B energy trade surplus in 2025, up from $5.7B last year, driven by strong performance in its Vaca Muerta shale formation and new government policies, Deputy Energy Secretary Federico Valler said in Houston. Vista Energy echoed the bullish outlook, while YPF (Argentina’s state owned company) and partners like Shell and Chevron are ramping up infrastructure projects. Finally, the Jul/Aug front month spread is at $ 0.40/bbl and the Jul/Jan’26 6-month spread is at $ 0.62/bbl.
