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Dubai Market Report: Du-Boring…

It has been an extremely quiet week in Brent/Dubai, with risk appetite extremely low. The basic structure of the market has changed very little week by week. Volumes have dropped off again since our last report on 11 Nov, and there has been very little speculative positioning. From the small spec positioning we have seen, there have been some banks and small funds buying and selling, but this has not been unidirectional, and it is quite hard to build a narrative from.

European Window: Brent Eases to $64.01/bbl

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract eased this afternoon, from $64.25/bbl at 14:00 GMT to $64.01/bbl at 16:45 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters has reported that Rosneft’s Ryazan oil refinery (capacity 340kb/d) has halted its crude processing after a Ukrainian drone strike last weekend. According to Reuters sources, the refinery is expected to be offline until the end of the month, and no oil loadings are scheduled until after 01 December. Elsewhere, Reuters has also reported that crude loadings at Russia’s Novorossiysk port are 2-3 days delayed due to damage on a key jetty at the facility from a Ukrainian attack. Damages were reported at berth 1 and 1A, which both handle 140kt Suezmax tankers; the former continues to remain idle. In a Bloomberg report, Chinese imports of Russian and Iranian oil are set to drop this month as sanctions continue to disrupt global flows. Estimates by Rystad Energy, as cited by Bloomberg, suggest that imports from Russia could drop 800kb/d in November, while Chinese imports of Iranian crude could drop by roughly 30% in November compared to previous months. In other news, Ukrainian private energy firm DTEK announced that it delivered its first US LNG shipment via the northern route from Lithuania, as Ukraine seeks to diversify its gas import sources. Once re-gasified, the gas will then head to Eastern European markets, including Ukraine and Poland. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.40/bbl and $0.93/bbl, respectively.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Rises to $64.05/bbl

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract rose this morning, from $63.65/bbl at 07:15 GMT to $64.05/bbl at 10:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters trade sources have stated that India’s Reliance has purchased 1mb of heavy crude from Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC). This follows KPC’s tender to sell crude oil that its Al-Zour refinery cannot process due to unplanned maintenance following a fire in late October. Loading of 500kb of Kuwait crude is expected on 06-07 December, while the remaining barrels are of Eocene crude for 08-09 December loading. In related news, KPC has also signed a deal for a $4.89bn syndicated loan from the National Bank of Kuwait and Kuwait Finance House to boost its oil output, targeting 4mb/d by 2035. KPC CEO Sheikh Nawaf Saud Al-Sabah stated that the loan will support the company’s efforts to diversify its funding sources. Elsewhere, China’s crude oil storage is estimated to have increased in October, by roughly 690kb/d (+570kb m/m), according to Reuters calculations based on official data. October crude imports (11.39mb/d) and domestic output (4.24mb/d) appear to have outweighed an increase in refinery processing (14.94mb/d, +6.4% m/m), per Reuters. Finally, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.42/bbl and $0.89/bbl, respectively.

Gasoline Report: End of an Era?

There continued to be great support in the gasoline complex this week, with the strength especially pertinent, and arguably disconnected, in Europe. Prompt cracks in the US, Asia, and Europe are at seasonal highs. The M1 RBOB swap crack has reached resistance as it failed to reach $18.00/bbl this week, although price and the lagging line are above the Ichimoku cloud, showing an overall bullish regime, with the 100-day moving average providing little resistance. There was an EIA-reported 945kb draw in US gasoline inventories in the week ending 07 Nov. This was less than the estimated draw of 2.5mb forecast. However, US gasoline stock levels still lie at 5-year seasonal lows, 1% below last year’s levels and over 4% lower than the 5-year average level.
The Dec’25 EBOB crack failed to maintain strength above $17.00/bbl this week, easing from $17.20/bbl on 12 Nov to $16.69/bbl on 17 Nov. Open interest increased this week, reaching 18mb on 12 Nov amid selling by trade houses and refiners. These players trimming their length indicates waning confidence in the persistent strength throughout the past month. From a technical perspective, bullish momentum remains strong, with the ADX at 62; however, the daily drops in the MACD indicate waning positive momentum.
The Dec’25 92 crack climbed to $14.75/bbl on 13 Nov before meeting resistance and settling to $14.25/bbl on 17 Nov. Open interest remained relatively flat this week, while net positioning experienced some inconsistencies amid trade houses vacillating between buy- and sell-side flows.
The Dec’25 transatlantic arb fell to a low of 1.50c/gal on 14 Nov, before meeting resistance and rising to 1.10c/gal on 17 Nov. Open interest saw a good increase this week, as trade houses and refiners exhibited strong sell-side flows. From a technical standpoint, prices are testing the support from the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud. The M1 stochastic momentum indicator shows the fast line above the slow, following a bullish crossover on 14 Nov.
The Dec’25 NWE gasnaph saw an increase in prices, rising to $142.19/mt on 12 Nov. However, resistance was seen here as levels eased to $136.83/mt on 17 Nov. Open interest rose this week, reaching just 9% below the 5-year maximum. Flows were driven by refiners adding to shorts this week, though trade houses were on the buy-side. Technically, stochastic lines in this contract are in overbought territory, but lines remain flat, signalling a pause in momentum, though not yet reversing.

Naphtha Report: Weaker tides ahead

The naphtha swaps market remains largely lacklustre as market players seek direction in the market. A drone attack on the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk took the second-largest exporting terminal of Russian naphtha offline briefly….

European Window: Brent Eases to $64.37/bbl

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract eased this afternoon, from $64.70/bbl at 14:00 GMT to $64.37/bbl at 17:15 GMT (time of writing). In the news, the BBC has reported that a Turkish LPG tanker was struck by Russian drones in the Odesa port of Izmail. Civilian vessels were reportedly damaged, and the nearby village of Plauru has been ordered to evacuate. The tanker, Orinda, carried 4kt of gas; exact damages and impacts have yet to be officially reported. In other news, Reuters has reported that Iraq is seeking a 6-month waiver from US sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil to delay the selling of its stake in the West-Qurna-2 oilfield. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has met with Vagit Alekperov, the former CEO of Lukoil, according to the Prime Minister’s office, to discuss the waiver request. No further details were given. In the US, Chevron is reportedly considering options to acquire Lukoil’s foreign assets, according to Reuters’ sources. Chevron looks to purchase assets where the companies overlap, though no official comment has been made from the US major. In other news, Gulf Keystone Petroleum has announced that international oil firms in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region have loaded their first export shipment from Turkey’s Ceyhan terminal. The company anticipates payment for its share of the first cargo within 30 days and a second lifting at the end of this month. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.44/bbl and $0.99/bbl, respectively.

Brent Forecast: 17th November 2025

View: Bearish   Target Price: $62.5-64/bbl Government shutdown to momentum shutdown Volatility is dropping, and M1 Brent futures hit firm resistance on 11 Nov as the contract met the 50-day moving average and downtrend line from late-September. The contract has continued

CFTC Weekly: Gas-oi-l losing the OI

In the week ending 11 Nov, the M1 ICE Brent futures contract continued to follow the downtrend from the start of October, seeing a slightly weekly net improvement, from closing at $64.30/bbl on 04 Nov, to just over $65.00/bbl on 11 Nov. $65.00/bbl has proven resistance since. The market awaited IEA, OPEC, and EIA reports, and there was movement towards the longest-ever US government shutdown coming to a close, which supported some demand narrative. EIA data for the week to 31 Oct showed a 5.2mb build in US crude oil stocks, as well as a build in Cushing, OK.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Rises to $64.43/bbl

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract has risen this morning, from $63.70/bbl at 07:00 GMT to $64.43/bbl at 10:00 GMT (time of writing). According to LSEG data, loadings have resumed at Russia’s Novorossiysk port on Sunday, following a two-day suspension due to a Ukrainian attack last week. Over the weekend, the Ukrainian military confirmed hits on Russia’s Ryazan and Novokuibyshevsk oil refineries. Damages to primary processing units at Ryazan have been reported, though disruptions to Novokuibyshevsk are still being assessed, according to the Kyiv Independent. Elsewhere, China and India have ramped up their crude oil purchases, particularly of Middle Eastern cargoes. According to a Bloomberg report, these cargoes were sold at a discount, with China being the primary buyer. In other news, the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has extended its deadline for completing transactions and entering contracts for the sale of international assets under Russia’s Lukoil until 13 Dec. Meanwhile, Reuters reported that India has exported its first jet fuel cargo to the US West Coast for Chevron, due to supply shortages in Los Angeles following an earlier fire at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery (capacity 285kb/d). According to Reuters’ shipbroker sources, roughly 473kb of aviation fuel was loaded at Reliance’s Jamnagar port and is expected to arrive in the first half of December. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.44/bbl and $1.05/bbl, respectively.

European Window: Brent Rises to $64.60/bbl

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract rose this afternoon, from $63.70/bbl at 13:30 GMT to $64.60/bbl at 16:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters has reported that Russia’s Saratov oil refinery (capacity 147kb/d) has halted operations following Ukrainian drone attacks. Per Reuters’ sources, the refinery could remain down until the end of this month. Elsewhere, a Bloomberg report states that Iran has seized an oil tanker shortly after it passed the Strait of Hormuz; the Marshall Island-flagged tanker, Talara, was seized in the Gulf of Oman. On board is high-sulfur gasoil from the UAE’s port of Hamriyah, which was loaded in October. Iran has yet to acknowledge or officially comment on the incident. In Britain, the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation has paused sanctions that will permit Bulgaria’s Burgas refinery (owned by Russia’s Lukoil) to resume business with firms and banks. The granted special license allows payments and economic resources to pass between two Bulgarian entities under existing or new contracts and is set to expire on 14 February 2026. A Reuters source has reportedly claimed that the US is expected to issue a similar license later today, though no official statements have been made. In other news, Russia’s Lukoil has stated that it is in talks with potential buyers of its foreign assets, saying that the “specific deal will be announced after the final agreements have been reached and the necessary regulatory approvals have been obtained.” No information on the potential buyer(s) was detailed in the Reuters report. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.41/bbl and $1.01/bbl, respectively.

European Window: Brent Softens to $63.15/bbl

The Jan’26 Brent Futures contract fell this afternoon to $63.02/bbl at 16:06 GMT, before recovering to $63.30/bbl at 16:59 BST. At 17:30 BST (time of writing) prices had softened to $63.15/bbl. In the news, Lukoil faces US sanctions pressure, forcing quick action as deals risk being blocked before the 21 November deadline. Sanctions have disrupted operations in Iraq, Finland, and Bulgaria, with a planned asset sale to Gunvor blocked. Bidders are circling foreign assets, including KazMunayGas’s interest in Karachaganak and Shell’s bid for deepwater blocks in Ghana and Nigeria. Egypt and Moldova are also involved targets. Reuters analysts warn proceeds could be frozen or assets seized under trusteeship if sold now. In other news, Russia’s oil processing fell 3% this year as refineries used spare capacity to offset Ukraine’s drone attacks, which targeted 17 major refineries. Even with 20% offline at the peak, refining volume dropped about 6% to 5.1 mb/d. Refineries operated below capacity, restarting spare units and repairing damaged ones quickly. Western sanctions hinder spare parts, but Russia pursued domestic production and Chinese imports to keep repairs moving, though at higher costs and longer timelines. South Sudan’s petroleum ministry says it has asked for $2.5 Bn in oil-backed loans from two international firms, a sum larger than the government’s annual budget and about the UN’s estimate of loans received since 2011. The letters were sent late last month; no funds have been transferred. The requests propose repaying the loans within 54 months of disbursement, with $1 Bn from ONGC Nile Ganga B.V. and $1.5 Bn from CNPC, tied to crude oil entitlements controlled by the national oil company. Finally, the front-month Jan/Feb and 6-month Jan/Jul spreads are at $0.36/bbl and $0.66/bbl respectively.

Trader Meeting Notes: Shutdown Ends, Cracks Ascend

The US government shutdown is finally over! Everyone, mind your manners and say welcome back; the journey was not easy. It has been 43 tense days, and the Democrats will be tending to their wounds for the time being. As for oil, things initially seemed to be looking up. The return of a functioning US government injected some optimism into demand, and Brent prices caught a nice lift from the Senate’s funding bill earlier this week, briefly breaking past $65/bbl. But unfortunately for Brent, what goes up must come down, and an OPEC report made sure that the landing hurt. In its 12 November report, OPEC revised its projections to show a more balanced market by 2026, effectively abandoning the deficit forecast it had defended all quarter. In response, Brent saw itself out and retreated back to its $62/bbl handle. The IEA also could not hold the line this week, as it conceded that demand will likely rise through this decade, letting go of its previous ‘peak oil’ narrative. But you know what else went up and hasn’t come down? Gasoline. Gasoline cracks have been on a relentless tear this month, leaving traders scratching their heads and wondering just how high is too high. Refinery margins are soaring too, hitting fresh yearly highs this week. Refiners, it seems, have a nice thing going for them on cloud nine. Now, just for a reality check, we must say that the North Sea isn’t doing so hot. The Dated physical differential collapsed this week, as Vitol did a 180 and offered heaps of cargoes in the window; naturally, the herd followed and resulted in the front three CFDs falling into contango.

Fuel Oil Report – Is the Rally HSF-Over…?

The HSFO market has been under pressure over the fortnight, although both regions continue to hold at, or near, seasonal highs. The Dec’25 3.5% barges crack fell from -$3.20/bbl to around -$5.10/bbl by mid-November but remains at seasonal highs. Open interest rose 30% over the fortnight, with stronger daily volumes, though still below the five-year average. Net positioning has shifted from heavily short to nearly flat as traders took profits, while end-user buying adds support. Together, these signs point to a bullish outlook.
The Dec’25 3.5% barges and 380 cracks rallied early in the week before retreating, with both seeing rising open interest and increased short activity from trade houses. The HSFO E/W flipped into negative territory as European strength pressured the East, though some short covering and profit-taking in the Visco spread suggest the downside may be slowing. Overall sentiment in the East is mixed to cautiously bullish, with potential for short covering to lend support.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Down to $62.50/bbl

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract saw a little support in the early morning, from $62.34/bbl at 01.11 GMT, to $62.80/bbl at 07.10 GMT. The contract has softened since, to $62.50/bbl at 09.21 GMT (time of writing). The API reported a rise of 1.3mb in US crude stockpiles in the week to 07 Nov. They saw a 1.4mb w/w draw in gasoline stocks and a 944kb build in distillates. The US Department of Energy (DOE) announced that contracts have been awarded for the acquisition of approximately one million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The contracts awarded on 12 Nov are for deliveries beginning in December 2025 through January 2026 to the Bryan Mound site. Pakistan’s OGDCL has been provisionally awarded exploration rights for eight offshore blocks in Pakistan’s Indus and Makran basins after an October bidding round. The company will operate two Indus Basin blocks and partner with PPL, Mari Energies, and Prime Global Energies on the rest, holding stakes of 23–32%. Egypt’s Petroleum Minister Karim Badawi met with Indian officials, including Minister Jagat Prakash Nadda and Ambassador Suresh K. Reddy, to discuss expanding cooperation and investment in petrochemicals and mining. The talks built on the progress made during the recent Egypt–India Strategic Dialogue, focusing on enhancing fertilizer production and exploring joint ventures targeting regional markets. India has introduced a new royalty scheme for critical minerals, shifting to percentage-based payments on sales for graphite and setting new rates for caesium, zirconium, and rubidium. The move aims to boost local production and cut reliance on Chinese imports. It follows a $1.9 billion government plan to expand domestic supplies for key industries like electronics, defense, and batteries. At the time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are $0.26/bbl and $0.37/bbl, respectively.

CFTC Predictor: Collecting Risk in Brent

In the week ending 11 Nov, the M1 Brent futures contract traded down to $62.84/bbl on 06 Nov before meeting support and rising to $65.29/bbl on 11 Nov. Prices were initially pressured by growing concerns of an oil surplus. However, optimism surrounding an end to the US government shutdown grew as a Senate funding agreement was passed, providing some support to prices. Lukoil’s declaration of force majeure at its West Qurna-2 field in Iraq, alongside tightness in the diesel and gasoline markets, further lent support. RBOB futures prices saw steady strength in the week ending 11 Nov, rising from $14.13/bbl on 04 Nov to $17.05/bbl on 11 Nov. Similarly, the ICE gasoil swap crack rose from $28.16/bbl on 04 Nov to $34.78/bbl on 11 Nov.
This week in Brent and RBOB, money managers are expected to add length and cut their shorts, while producers/merchants are anticipated to increase their overall exposure. In ICE gasoil, both players are anticipated to take the respective opposite stances.
Further detailed information on other categories and contracts can be found in the report.

European Window: Brent Falls to $62.80/bbl

The Jan’26 Brent futures contract slipped this afternoon, from $64.50/bbl at 13:00 GMT to $62.80/bbl at 16:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, an OPEC report has forecast that global supply in 2026 will match demand, marking a shift from its previous projections of a supply deficit. The report details that the producer group expects global oil demand to rise by 1.3mb/d this year and at a slightly faster rate in 2026. Elsewhere, President Rumen Radev of Bulgaria has vetoed legislation that would enable the government to seize Lukoil’s Burgas refinery and sell it to shield it from US sanctions. In a statement, Radev has said that the application of the law has been expanded dangerously, though parliament may override his veto. In Russia, seaborne oil product exports remained largely unchanged this month compared to September, as refineries completed their seasonal maintenance, according to a Reuters report. While overall volumes were steady this month, particular flows were disrupted due to US sanctions and continued drone attacks. In other news, Reuters has reported that Russia and Kazakhstan have agreed to strengthen their partnership in the oil sector following talks between the nations’ respective presidents. However, no particular details were given during Kazakh President Tokayev’s televised remarks. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.25/bbl and $0.44/bbl, respectively.

Broadcaster Lisa Aziz appointed as permanent Host of Flux News

London, Monday 10th November 2025 – Flux News is proud to announce the appointment of veteran TV and Radio journalist, Lisa Aziz, as the official Host of Flux News, bringing her unparalleled broadcasting experience to the network’s flagship programming. With

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