The Officials

As crude structures weaken almost universally, the market feels as many of the big wigs are busy at ADIPEC. Even so, Brent recovered somewhat from its drop to $64 and seems to be happy in its post-sanctions range. In the meantime, the ADIPEC chatter is united in consensus. Hopefully it’s not just an echo chamber. It’s all about rebutting the ‘peak demand’ and ‘sub-100 mil b/d’ stories coming from the illustrious forecasting agencies, with the pack led by the IEA.

If you push your rival away, don’t complain if he makes friend with your enemy. After the US spanked Russia with sanctions, President Xi rolled out the red carpet for Russia’s PM Mikhail Mishustin in Beijing, doubling down on the “no-limits” partnership. They lambasted “illegal” Western sanctions and are busy getting cosy. If you hear from the market that China will or has already stopped purchasing Russian crude, think again! There are rumours knocking around that big Chinese refiners are trimming purchases of Russian crude but this united front looks rather contradictory!

In the week ending 31 October 2025 as traders were rolling their positions due to expiry, exchange traded futures volumes were largely down w/w across all instruments for the December tenor. In the following two futures contracts, volumes were up across all instruments, except Brent and WTI. Brent volumes in January and February tenors were down 4.79%

Of course, it didn’t take long for the ADIPEC chatter to turn to Russian sanctions. The talk is all about how much flows will be redirected as a result, with some expecting as much as 1.5 mil b/d lost to India, as the most inclined to switch things up seem to be Reliance – they’ve bought nearly 20 Middle Eastern cargoes! – Mangalore and HPCL. That could see the market up to the low-$70s according to some – though remember they have until 21 November for the US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil to really come into force. But for now, it’s dropping. This morning Brent fell to $64.31/bbl by the Asian close, before continuing its downtrend to even below $64!

A new month for the market to sink its teeth into and the North Sea started November with a bang! Midland bids and offers were flying around right from the start, with a couple of CIF Ekofisks bids and offers thrown in for good measure, plus some Forties bids too. Phillips, Vitol and Mercuria were all over the window like charging antelopes (bidding or offering).

Dear readers, this issue of The Officials is a free taster – attendees at ADIPEC, read on! The loudest noises we’ve detected from the conference so far are that demand remains strong, despite the increasingly noisy super glut narratives being pushed from all angles.

October is at an end! It’s been a hectic month with chopping and changes of market direction and narratives. The super glut narrative is still doing the rounds, though this month it took a new shape: oil on water. Some very wonky-looking data was floating around, suggesting a huge surge in exports but no corresponding surge in imports… Some of the barrel counters and ship trackers are even openly admitting their data should be raising eyebrows!

October is at an end! It’s been a hectic month with chopping and changes of market direction and narratives. The super glut narrative is still doing the rounds, though this month it took a new shape: oil on water. Some very wonky-looking data was floating around, suggesting a huge surge in exports but no corresponding surge in imports…

$65 is back! Briefly at least, before markets fell back again, slipping just by a cent $64.99/bbl by the close. The prompt spread recovered somewhat again, reaching the European close at 64c. However, the Brent structure is struggling further down the curve again, dipping into contango in the May/Jun’26 spread.

The broader market was waiting for the outcome of the Trump and Xi negotiations as the impact is far and wide. The meeting was a 12 out 10 said Trump, but the details said it was a 3. The two nations essentially agreed to play sort of nice for another year and see then how things are going. Trump said the Chinese agreed to buy anything American but the price of soya beans fell by about 1.5%. If it was s such a good meeting why would the American farmers be so disappointed, we wondered. Regardless, even a fake agreement is better than actual shooting, so we are happy.

The physical fizzes up! And the flat price also jumps! Oh, and EIA inventory data is all bullish with inventories for crude and products falling by nearly 16 million bbls! If you listen to the narrative makers the world is awash in oil…except inventories are falling. Wake up, please. The North Sea kicked into life today with a plethora of bids across grades. Midland, Brent, Ekofisk and Johan Sverdrup were all in the frame and the physical differential surged!

A battering for markets! Flat price and spreads both got hit hard this morning, with December Brent barely hanging onto the $64 handle as the prompt spread falls into the mid-50c range. But the storm passed later in the day. It is hurricane season, what can we say?

Kuwait in refinery turmoil! The Al Zour refinery fire has everyone running around in a fluster, as crude tenders are rapidly issued, product is tight but sources tell us diesel was loaded today – though obviously from storage tanks. Pakistan seems particularly exposed, as a source pointed out 150kt of their 200kt monthly gasoil purchases come from KPC…

In the week ending 24 October 2025, exchange traded futures volumes were largely up w/w across most instruments due to the imposition of the Russian sanctions, which saw a major uptick in market activity.

A lot of fun and games in the spot partials trading but let’s start first with the funny mentals. China’s sanctioned terminal is reportedly going full Russian because a) they are sanctioned and all they can get is Russian and Iranian and b) nobody will touch with a barge pole except the Russians and the Iranians. This is the real effect of the sanctions. And the Indians are playing a two-sided game buying some non-Russian while not fully rejecting it. Sources say Tatneft will be busy selling loads of Russian crude. And the mechanical issues are huge. A Kuwait unit essentially burned down and runs dropped so much that they need to sell extra crude in tenders. And the Indians are also facing acidity issues -not just with Trump but at one of the HPCL units. Messy…end result gasoil goes up and is also worrying Pakistan and others who are short.