Flux Insights

Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Flux's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.

LIVE: EIA Stats Commentary

  • Markets are currently affixed on to this afternoon’s EIA stats for the week ending Jan 05. The announcement is due today at 15:30 GMT.
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Flux Insights

Price action after the EIA report came out (15:30 GMT) was as follows:

  • Brent fut: dropped 0.5% in the min and 0.99% in the hour
  • WTI fut: dropped 0.54% in the min and 1.27% in the hour
  • RBOB fut: dropped 0.94% the min and 2.3% in the hour
  • ICE Gasoil fut: dropped 1.2% in the min and 1.1% in the hour
  • Flux Insights

    Prompt prices post stats (as of 16:00 GMT)

  • Brent fut: $77.43/bbl
  • WTI fut: $72.03/bbl
  • RBOB fut: $2.07/gal
  • ICE Gasoil fut: $776.5/mt
  • C3 LST: 76.45c/gal
  • Flux Insights

    EIA inventory report also shows these changes for last week:

    o PADD 1B gasoline +541kbbls

    o PADD 1 Distillates +2,574kbbls

    • Cushing crude -506kbbls

    • PADD 3 crude +803kbbls

    • Refinery utilization -0.6ppt vs est. -0.7ppt

    • Refinery crude inputs -161kbbls/d

    • Crude imports -654kbbls/d

    • Crude production unchanged

    Flux Insights

    EIA Stats

  • Crude: 1.338mbbls vs median est. -0.15mbbls
  • Distillates: 6.528mbbls vs est. 1.764mbbls
  • Gasoline: 8.029mbbls vs est. 2.128mbbls
  • Flux Insights

    The EIA stats tend to be used as a bellwether for oil demand, and in turn crude sentiment. Brent has seen a tumultuous week with both bullish and bearish factors affecting such as:

  • Soon-to-be published US jobs data
  • Signs of poor demand coming out of Germany with its industry production 15% below pre-pandemic levels in November
  • Ongoing supply disruption in the Red Sea
  • Force majeure declared by Libya and closure of its largest oil field
  • Flux Insights

    Prompt prices pre stats (as of 15:15 GMT)

    Brent fut: $78.55/bbl

    WTI fut: $73.39/bbl

    RBOB fut: 2.12c/gal

    ICE Gasoil fut: $786/mt

    C3 LST: 77.15c/gal

    Flux Insights

    Last week, oil products saw significantly bearish stats with both gasoline and distillates witnessing builds of over 10mbbls each. This saw gasoline record its highest w-o-w build in over 30 years

    Flux Insights

    In line with the API stats, EIA forecasts currently stand at:

  • Crude: -0.675mbbls
  • Distillates: 2.382mbbls
  • Gasoline: 2.489mbbls
  • Flux Insights

    API stats from yesterday showed draws in crude (-5.215mbbls) and Cushing (-0.625mbbls) while distillates and gasoline saw builds at 6.873mbbls and 4.896mbbls. The crude draw exceeded forecasts of a 1.2mbbls draw

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    Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Flux's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.