Reports

Dated Brent Report – All Eyes On Midland

This week, we have seen a good example of the dichotomy between Brent’s futures and the physical market that underpins it. In the physical, it seems that the market has found a floor this week. Equinor and Gunvor were running down the physical premium with good offering, but this has been met with better buying now. On 17 Feb, Glencore, PetroIneos, and Totsa were bidding for Forties and Midland, and we expect some better support here with good refiner buying seen with decent margins. Our view is that for this month, there is not a lot of crude left in loading cycles for the North Sea grades. This leaves Midland’s availability key to the strength of Dated. The cold weather in the US, along with fog issues at ports, could cause some issues here, from what has been some strong export levels from the States.

European Window: Brent Fluctuates Around $75/bbl

The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price saw a choppy afternoon, swinging by a dollar from $76 to $75/bbl before rising to $75.70/bbl by 17:00 GMT. According to a Bloomberg report, privately-run terminals in China, particularly in Shandong, Yangshan, and Huizhou, have become key hubs for receiving sanctioned Russian and Iranian crude, allowing independent refiners to circumvent U.S. restrictions while shielding major state-owned operators from scrutiny. Diamondback Energy is expanding its Permian Basin footprint with a $4.1 billion acquisition of Double Eagle IV, paid through $3 billion in cash and stock, adding 27kb/d of production while prioritising efficiency and free cash flow amid a wave of industry consolidation. The G-7 is considering tightening the Russian oil price cap to curb Moscow’s war revenues and push for a negotiated peace in Ukraine, though details remain unclear and the plan faces diplomatic hurdles amid shifting U.S. foreign policy under Trump. Turkey’s largest oil refiner, Tupras, has halted Russian crude purchases due to U.S. sanctions, with final shipments arriving in February, marking a significant shift after Russian oil made up 65% of Turkey’s imports in 2024. Finally, the front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent futures spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $2.56/bbl respectively.

Onyx Alpha: Arb We There Yet?

Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in gasoline, NGL, and distillates swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.

Gasoline Report: Volatility Dials Down

The Mar’25 RBOB futures contract has consolidated in the $2.10/gal region and is supported by the 34-day moving average. It may find resistance at $2.17/gal, a high seen in October 2024 and January 2025. Momentum is neutral, while Onyx’s CTA model shows a near-flat position in RBOB futures. This contrasts with the lagged data of the CFTC COT report for the week ending 11 Feb that showed that money managers were getting longer in RBOB futures.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Supported Above $75/bbl

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract was supported above the $75/bbl handle this morning, climbing to $75.85/bbl at 09:40 GMT, where it initially met resistance, before ultimately climbing to $75.95/bbl at 10:40 GMT (time of writing).

Technical Analysis Report

The front-month Brent futures contract softened from an intraday high of $77.30/bbl on 11 Feb to $75/bbl the next day, following which it drifted sideways and now stands at $74.85/bbl on 17 Feb (at 16:20 GMT). The contract appears to be consolidating around the $75/bbl handle, with the 10-day (white line on the chart) and structural 100-day moving averages (purple line on the chart) converging towards each other just above $75/bbl, potentially establishing short-term resistance at this level. The 50-day MA (blue line on the chart) is above these two lines, although only slightly at $75.90/bbl. We expect to see short-term support at $74/bbl, having first been a significant resistance level in Q4’24. We could also see support at the $72/bbl handle, which the contract tested at the end of 2024. In the case that the contract breaks out to the upside, it would need to successfully surpass resistance at $77/bbl.

European Window: Brent Strengthens To $75.10/bbl

After softening this morning, the Apr’25 Brent futures contract saw steady strength this afternoon, rising from $74.45/bbl at 1215 GMT up to $75.10/bbl at 1750 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have ultimately remained rangebound today as markets await further developments toward potential Russia-Ukraine peace talks. In the news today, while OPEC+ is considering pushing back a series of monthly supply increases due to begin in April, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that OPEC+ producers are not looking to delay the April production hikes, Russia’s RIA news agency reported. In other news, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) reported a drone attack on its largest crude oil pump station in Russia, known as PS Kropotinskaya. The CPC operates a pipeline from northwest Kazakhstan to the Novorossiysk port on Russia’s Black Sea coast, which carries around 80% of Kazakh crude exports. Currently, PS Kropotkinskaya is out of service and the CPC pipeline is operating at reduced flow rates. Finally, Iraq’s Minister of Oil, Hayan Abdulghani, said in a statement that no obstacles remain to the resumption of oil exports from Kurdistan, with expectations for exports to take place by early March, according to Kurdistan24. After almost two years since the start of the dispute between Iraq and Kurdistan, Iraq’s Minister of Oil claims that Baghdad could now receive 300kb/d from the region. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.29/bbl and $2.28/bbl, respectively.

Brent Forecast: 17th February 2025

The Apr’25 Brent crude flat price has stabilised after last week’s sell-off and is trading at $74.60/bbl as of 12:00 GMT on 17 February (time of writing). While Trump’s tariff threats have raised concerns about their implications for oil demand,

CFTC Weekly: Bearish Contemplation

In the week ending 11 Feb, combined open interest (OI) across both Brent and WTI futures increased by 67mb (+1.6%), following two consecutive weeks of declines. We saw a proportionately greater increase in Brent futures OI, which rose 44mb w/w, almost double compared to a 23mb w/w increase in WTI futures OI. Money managers added risk this week but were hesitant to add significant length, increasing their combined long positions across Brent and WTI by only 2mb (+0.4%). Meanwhile, we saw bearish sentiment among speculators start to pickup as money managers added 15.4mb (+10.5%) to their combined short positions. Net positioning has become increasingly bearish over the past few weeks, currently sitting at 415mb, the lowest level seen since December 2024. This rise in bearish sentiment may have been an ongoing reaction to US tariffs delays in addition to news of negotiations toward a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.

European Window: Brent Dips Below $75/bbl

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract increased from $75.45/bbl at 1200 GMT this afternoon up to $75.80/bbl at 1330 GMT, where prices sold-off to $74.85/bbl at 1750 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US aims to squeeze Iran’s oil exports to less than 10% of current levels, Bloomberg reported. “We are committed to bringing the Iranians to going back to the 100kb/d of oil exports” shipped during the first Trump administration, Bessent said in a Fox Business interview. In other news, ADNOC Drilling plans to borrow $1 billion from banks in 2025 to refinance expiring debt, the company’s CFO Youssef Salem told Bloomberg Television. Salem said “We expect to be refinancing and up-sizing to fund our growth”, stating the company has roughly $750 million in debt maturing in the fourth quarter. Finally, China has begun drilling ultra-deep oil and gas wells in the Taklimakan Desert, located in China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. One well, the Manshen 72-H6 in Xayar County is planned to reach a depth of 8,735 metres. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.31/bbl and $2.33/bbl, respectively.

Fuel Oil Report – Fuelled Up February

In High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO), the 3.5% barge complex weakened into the new year. The Feb/Mar’25 3.5% barge spread dropped from $4/mt on 27 Dec to a contango of -$1/mt on 14 Jan. While this contango was short-lived, the spread remains pressured and was seen at $1.25/mt on 17 Jan (at the time of writing). Coupling this with a stronger crude, the Feb’25 3.5% barge crack fell from -$5.60/bbl on 27 Dec to -$7.70/bbl at the time of writing. The crack has also seen significant sell-side interest from trade houses (who flipped from being net buyers on 8 Jan), end users, hedge funds and banks. In Asia, the Feb/Mar’25 Singapore 380 cst spread softened at the start of the year but rallied from $2/mt on 7 Jan to $7.50/mt on 17 Jan amid increased trade house and major buying. Accordingly, the Feb’25 380 East/West (380 vs 3.5% barges) surged up to $25.75/mt on 17 Jan. The differential between 180 cst and 380 cst fuel oil (Visco) in Feb’25 declined from $8.25/mt on 3 Jan to $6.50/mt on 17 Jan (at the time of writing).

Brent Forecast Review: 14th February 2025

Sell Baby Sell? On Monday, we forecast the front-month Brent futures contract to hover between $74 and $77/bbl by the end of this week. As of Friday, at 10:05 GMT, the M1 futures contract is trading at $75.40/bbl. In line

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Supported Above $75/bbl

Apr’25 Brent futures strengthened from around $75.10/bbl at 0630 GMT this morning up to $75.55/bbl at 0835 GMT, before tapering off to $75.25/bbl at 1055 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, a Russian drone has caused significant damage to the radiation containment shelter at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant overnight, President Zelenskyy has stated. The attack caused a fire which has since been extinguished, while the UN’s energy watchdog said radiation levels remain normal, as per Reuters. In other news, India has agreed to boost oil and gas imports from the US in order to reduce the trade imbalance and avoid retaliatory tariffs, Bloomberg reported. India was once the top buyer of US crude, accounting for 14.5% of total US exports in 2021, however, the US accounted for less than 5% of India’s total imports in the first 11 months of 2024. Finally, the Nigerian government has signed agreements with Algeria and the Republic of Niger to advance the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) and enhance gas supplies to European markets, according to Nigeria’s BusinessDay. The pipeline is projected to stretch approximately 4,400km, connecting Nigerian gas fields in the Niger Delta to Europe. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.38/bbl and $2.50/bbl, respectively.

European Window: Brent Recovers To $75/bbl

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract has made a recovery after weakness this morning, trading from around $74.10/bbl at 1300 GMT up to $75.00/bbl at 1730 GMT. In the news today, President Zelenskyy said that Ukraine would not accept any bilateral agreement reached by Russia and the US without Kyiv’s involvement. The Kremlin responded that Ukraine would “of course” be involved in peace talks but that there would be a separate US-Russian channel for negotiations, as per Reuters. In other news, Hamas stated it is willing to proceed with the Gaza ceasefire deal, agreeing to release the next three Israeli hostages this weekend in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. This came as the 42-day Gaza ceasefire appeared close to failure this week with Israel and Hamas accusing the other of violating the peace deal. Finally, Syria is struggling to secure crude and refined oil products through public tenders as shipowners remain cautious about sending vessels to the country in case they are detained, according to an Argus report. In January, Syria’s transitional government issued tenders seeking 4.2mb of crude oil, 80kt of 90 RON gasoline, and 100kt of fuel oil and gasoil, all of which closed earlier this month. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.36/bbl and $2.48/bbl, respectively.

Trader Meeting Notes: Sell Baby Sell

This week reminded the market that we do not know what will happen next. The whipsaw of news seemed to pull the rug from under you as soon as you believed it. So what can we say really happened this week?

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Declines To $74.10/bbl

Apr’25 Brent futures initially saw small strength this morning, increasing from $74.50/bbl on 0600 GMT up to a touch under $74.90/bbl at 0910 GMT, but has since fallen to $74.10/bbl at 1025 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have continued to face bearish pressure after President Trump’s peace deal talks between Russia and Ukraine on Wednesday. In the news today, Russia’s commercial revenues from the sale of crude oil and oil products in January rose by $900 million m/m to $15.8 billion, with export volumes stable despite US sanctions, according to the IEA. In other news, Norwegian oil and gas investments this year are projected to exceed the record levels of 2024, a national statistics office industry survey showed. The survey forecast 2025 investment at 253.8 billion crowns, up from 251.2 billion crowns last year, driven by plans to invest more in producing fields, new developments and onshore facilities. Finally, Chevron is set to reduce up to 20% of its global workforce by the end of next year, which could affect 8000 jobs. Chevron is looking to reduce costs after the megadeal that will see the company combine with Hess Crop, as per Reuters. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.28/bbl and $2.22/bbl, respectively.

CFTC Predictor: Back In Business?

In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.

European Window: Brent Futures Weakens To $75.35/bbl

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract weakened this afternoon, declining from $76.35/bbl at 1200 GMT down to $75.35/bbl at 1720 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw bearish sentiment this afternoon, with EIA stats released today at 1530 GMT for the week to 07 Feb showing a larger-than-expected 4.07mb build in US crude oil inventories. In the news today, OPEC has released its February oil market report, forecasting global oil demand in 2025 to grow by 1.4mb/d y/y, largely unchanged from January’s assessment. OPEC projects OECD oil demand to grow by 0.1mb/d y/y and by 1.3mb/d In the non-OECD region, mostly driven by Chinese demand. Total world oil demand is anticipated to average 106.6mb/d in 2026. In other news, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said the country complied with its OPEC+ output quota in January and February so far, quoted by Russian news agency Interfax. Meanwhile, Indian refiners are reconfiguring insurers and vessel owners to continue receiving cheaper Russian oil without violating US sanctions on Russian oil exports, anonymous industry executives told Bloomberg. Finally, CNPC and Kazakhstan’s KazTransGas have signed an agreement increasing the contracted gas volume for the 2024-25 supply year by one-third, according to Xinhua news agency. CNPC also finalized a crude oil spot purchase agreement with Tengizchevroil, though specific contract volume figures were not disclosed, as per S&P Global. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.32/bbl and $2.47/bbl, respectively.

LPG Report: Middle East going South?

US Mont Belvieu (TET) propane found support in the fortnight ending 11 Feb, climbing from 84.50c/gal on 28 Jan to above 89c/gal on 11 Feb. Expectations of colder weather in the coming two weeks have supported expectations of heating demand in the US, with the National Weather Service predicting colder-than-normal temperatures across the US Eastern coast, Gulf Coast and the US Midcontinent between 17 and 25 February.