The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices continue rallying up to $62.90/bbl at 16:59 BST (time of writing). In the news, the US and UK have agreed on a deal to lower tariffs on some goods. Key points include: cars, steel, planes, and agricultural tariffs. Both sides will continue negotiations on broader trade topics, including pharmaceuticals and remaining tariffs. In other news, OPEC+’s oil output slightly declined in April by 30kb/d to 26.60 mb/d, despite planned production increases. The drop was mainly due to reduced exports from Venezuela and smaller cuts in Iraq and Libya. Iran, meanwhile, raised its output, ...

Prompt Brent futures dropped sub-$60/bbl this week after OPEC+ decided to increase oil production hikes for a second consecutive month, raising output in June by 411kb/d. There was no OPEC-mageddon, and the market absorbed the news pretty well, for the time being anyway. President Trump has been making huge, mysterious promises ahead of his trip to the Middle East next week. Trump is set to make Saudi Arabia his first stop on an international trip next week, saying bluntly he’s going for the money. Earlier in the year, he claimed the Saudis agreed to spend $1 trillion on US deals, ...

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices falling from $62.72/bbl at 12:56 BST down to $61.35/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, US crude oil inventories fell by 2mb in the week ending May 2, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), contrasting with the American Petroleum Institute’s report a day earlier of a 4.49mb build. Gasoline inventories rose by 200kb amid increased production, while distillate stocks declined by 1.1mb, with production also ticking up. Distillate inventories remain 13% below the five-year average. Overall, US petroleum demand rose, with total products supplied averaging 19.8mb/d over the ...

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

This week saw a significant reversal in Brent/Dubai, with the M1 contract sliding from 5 May’s high of $0.75/bbl to $0.12/bbl (at the time of writing on 6 May). This decline marked a shift from the rally building up ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on 3 May. Nevertheless, this support did not have substantial participation backing it up, with flows on screen primarily driving the price strength. However, price action suggests we may have seen short covering by players. Meanwhile, the OTC market was quieter, with majors short covering and trade houses becoming less active.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally to $62.78/bbl at 17:17 BST before slightly coming off to $62.20/bbl at 18:20 BST (time of writing). In the news, Saudi Arabia is considering shifting towards a market share strategy in a bid to punish OPEC+ members defying quotas, but weakening global demand could blunt its strategy. OPEC+ has already agreed to unwind nearly 1mb/d of cuts by June. While Riyadh can afford short-term losses, a prolonged slump could destabilize OPEC+ and threaten Saudi Arabia’s grip on oil markets. In other news, US shale producers in the Permian Basin are cutting spending ...

The Dated market suffered from the broader sell-off in crude markets, with OPEC news having a larger impact than initially thought. Supply overhang fears have inverted the Brent futures forward curve, which is in contango from Oct'25 onwards. Nonetheless, front spreads remain resilient, given the perceived prompt strength, with spreads also selling off from a high baseline, hence still backwardated. Liquidity conditions have worsened amid the holiday period, with structure being implied lower. We think the spread sell-off is overdone, and there has been good support at the start of the week, with spreads rebounding after the initial gap lower ...

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices initially move up to $62.16/bbl at 14:09 BST only to quicky fall to $60.74/bbl at 15:04 BST. Prices have since gained some support at $61.37/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing). In the news, China is reportedly considering ways to address the Trump administration's concerns over its role in the fentanyl trade, as per WSJ, potentially offering a way to allow for trade talks to begin. OPEC+ has moved its key meeting to Saturday, 3 May, to finalise plans for a June potential output hike of 411kb/d. Saudi Arabia appears ready to tolerate ...