In our previous report, we anticipated a prolonged period of de‑risking in the Brent/Dubai complex, with prices oscillating within a broad band, and that's exactly what we’ve seen. Over the past fortnight, the Jun'25 Brent/Dubai crack traded between -$0.25/bbl and +$0.80/bbl, settling at $0.55/bbl as of 20 May. There has been a recent void of trade house positioning in Brent/Dubai, with price action driven by smaller screens and hedging flow. Dubai and Murban spreads were also supported this week, which is consistent with the seasonal rally we typically see in spreads as refinery maintenance winds down and summer fuel demand ...

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally to $65.65/bbl at 14:21 BST before falling off to $54.94/bbl at 14:51 BST. Prices then bounced back to $65.53/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Kazakhstan's oil output rose 2% in May to 1.86 mb/d. The increase follows April's 3% drop but still exceeds the country's OPEC+ quota of 1.486 mb/d. Kazakhstan blames its repeated overproduction on the difficulty of curbing output from Western-led projects like Tengiz. The energy ministry insists it remains committed to OPEC+ and will offset excess output by 2026 but prioritizes national interests. In other ...

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally all afternoon to $65.95/bbl at 17:35 BST before falling off to $64.42/bbl at 18:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Indonesia is questioning a number Singapore-based trading firms as part of a $12B corruption probe into oil imports by state energy firm Pertamina between 2018 and 2023. Several Pertamina executives have been arrested, and authorities may question the firms in Singapore after failed summonses. Elliott Investment Management, now holding 5% of BP, is pressing for a quick replacement for outgoing Chair Helge Lund to drive a strategic revamp. The activist fund ...

Turning the vol down Over the week to 13 May, front-month Brent futures rallied to $66.55/bbl, their highest level since 28 April. ICE COT data for that week shows money managers added nearly 50 mb to their net long position, taking it to 145.2 mb, the strongest since the week ending 8 April. Since then, prices ran into resistance and softened to $65.95/bbl at the time of writing on 19 May. Momentum indicators such as the MACD histogram remain positive, though both historical and implied volatility on the M1 contract are declining. We therefore expect a narrower trading range this ...

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The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rangebound between $64.60/bbl and $65.02/bbl in the early afternoon. Prices then rallied to $65.47/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, the first round of talks between Russia and Ukraine conclude. President Zelenskiy dismissed Russia’s terms and coordinated with US President Trump and European leaders for a stronger response. Russia said talks could continue, but President Putin declined a direct meeting with Zelenskiy. In other news, Nigerian oil firm Renaissance Energy has halted production into the Trans Niger Pipeline following an operational incident on May 6 that caused an oil spill ...

In this publication, we leverage Onyx's proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Jun'25 Far East propane Index (C3 FEI) In this edition, we take a look at the Q3'25 Gasoline EBOB Crack.