Dated v Brent:
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Edge Updates

Dated Brent Report – I Feel It Fading

Well, the bull run did happen, and it was the perfect storm. Peak summer demand. Backwardated prompt spreads. Refineries are back from maintenance. Gold rush. The Dated structure saw a good rally with Total bidding the physical, and the June and July DFLs surpassed $1/bbl, and the bulls were rewarded for their patience, with the recent run likely funding their summer holidays. The rally was well telegraphed, but we do not think the rally has a further leg up, and hold a cautiously bearish view in the short term as the bulls fade out. The 16-20 Jun week is implied at nearly $1/bbl in the physical, but the bulls are in no rush, with the market seemingly happy with the $0.80/bbl level in the physical differential. Despite continued bids from Total and friends, we see this as an attempt to support the physical, rather than to push it higher. Whilst strong buying in the paper was seen on 6 June, it was not by the players with the ability to move the physical. With prompt weeks implying higher than the physical, rolls could roll down and see selling into pricing.

Dated Brent Report – Back to Homeos-Dated

The Dated physical differential feels more supported after a choppy time last week, as it was not easily settled at the lower levels. There was strong buying in the front end, which allowed the differential to be priced at around +35c/bbl at the time of writing, which is more within the 'normal' range. In the physical, there was mostly WTI Midland being traded by a slew of different players, although a major filled a VLCC with Forties to send East. This is interesting considering how high the Dated/Dubai differential is. M1 Dated/Dubai is almost $2.00/bbl at the time of writing on 27 May, which is around its highest level since August 2024.

Upcoming events

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Trader Meeting Notes: Strait out of Tehran

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COT Report: Geopolitical Risk Readjustment

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Dated Brent Supplementary Report – Resurgence

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Jun 25, 2025
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ARA Product Inventories
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