The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally all afternoon to $65.95/bbl at 17:35 BST before falling off to $64.42/bbl at 18:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Indonesia is questioning a number Singapore-based trading firms as part of a $12B corruption probe into oil imports by state energy firm Pertamina between 2018 and 2023. Several Pertamina executives have been arrested, and authorities may question the firms in Singapore after failed summonses. Elliott Investment Management, now holding 5% of BP, is pressing for a quick replacement for outgoing Chair Helge Lund to drive a strategic revamp. The activist fund ...

Turning the vol down Over the week to 13 May, front-month Brent futures rallied to $66.55/bbl, their highest level since 28 April. ICE COT data for that week shows money managers added nearly 50 mb to their net long position, taking it to 145.2 mb, the strongest since the week ending 8 April. Since then, prices ran into resistance and softened to $65.95/bbl at the time of writing on 19 May. Momentum indicators such as the MACD histogram remain positive, though both historical and implied volatility on the M1 contract are declining. We therefore expect a narrower trading range this ...

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The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rangebound between $64.60/bbl and $65.02/bbl in the early afternoon. Prices then rallied to $65.47/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, the first round of talks between Russia and Ukraine conclude. President Zelenskiy dismissed Russia’s terms and coordinated with US President Trump and European leaders for a stronger response. Russia said talks could continue, but President Putin declined a direct meeting with Zelenskiy. In other news, Nigerian oil firm Renaissance Energy has halted production into the Trans Niger Pipeline following an operational incident on May 6 that caused an oil spill ...

In this publication, we leverage Onyx's proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Jun'25 Far East propane Index (C3 FEI) In this edition, we take a look at the Q3'25 Gasoline EBOB Crack.

The Jul'25 Brent futures contract climbed from $65.80/bbl at circa 12:20 BST to $66.50/bbl at 14:55 BST, where it met resistance. Price action attempted to breach this level thrice this afternoon but failed to breach past it, softening to $65.90/bbl at 16:35 BST. Finally, at the time of writing (17:45 BST), the futures contract stands at $66.28/bbl. US crude oil inventories increased by 3.45mb w/w in the week ending 9 May to 441.8mb (15.19mb lower y/y). The EIA also reported a muted 0.19mb build in US gasoline inventories to 225.7mb (-2.27mb y/y) and a 3.16mb decline in distillate fuel oil ...

Prompt Brent futures rallied this week, to the surprise of many, but failed to maintain strength above $66.60/bbl and softened on 14 Weds. EIA inventory stats on 14 May pressured price action with an unexpected 3.5mb jump in US crude inventories, despite forecasts predicting a draw. Prices gapped down further this morning due to renewed hopes for a US-Iran nuclear deal. Iran has signalled it’s open to limiting uranium enrichment in return for the US lifting economic sanctions, a move that’s gaining support from Saudi Arabia, which says it’s hopeful for a positive outcome from the talks. In the US, ...