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Brent Forecast: 17th February 2025

The Apr’25 Brent crude flat price has stabilised after last week’s sell-off and is trading at $74.60/bbl as of 12:00 GMT on 17 February (time of writing). While Trump’s tariff threats have raised concerns about their implications for oil demand,

Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 17 Feb 2025

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Over the past week, we saw CTA net positioning briefly flip positive, increasing from -31.7k lots on 10 Feb up to 0.1k lots on 12 Feb, however, positioning fell back down to -17.4k lots by 17 Feb. We saw the most bearish positioning in Brent and WTI crude futures this week, sitting at -13.4k lots and -13.3k lots, respectively, as of 17 Feb. Heating oil remained highest on the model with the most bullish positioning fo 9.5k lots on 12 Feb, tapering off to 7.86k lots on 17 Feb. ICE gasoil moved from -3.8k lots to 2.5k lots amid bullish sentiment this week. RBOB positioning was at -3k lots on 10 Feb and briefly touched above flat on 12 Feb, hitting 1.8k lots, but declined to -1k by 17 Feb. Nevertheless, RBOB remains much higher than its monthly low of -11.4k lots on 03 Feb.

ETFs Report

Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.

Refinery Margins Report

Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.

New Publication – COT Deep Dive

In this new publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Trader’s data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.In this first publication we take a look at the 3.5% HSFO Barge Crack.

Brent Forecast Review: 14th February 2025

Sell Baby Sell? On Monday, we forecast the front-month Brent futures contract to hover between $74 and $77/bbl by the end of this week. As of Friday, at 10:05 GMT, the M1 futures contract is trading at $75.40/bbl. In line

Weekly Oil Inventories Report

This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage

COT Report: Baby, It’s Cold Outside (Again)

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

US EIA Weekly Report

This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 10 Feb 2025

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Over the past fortnight, we saw CTA net positioning become increasingly bearish and flip negative, falling from around 28.7k lots on 28 Jan down to -31k lots on 10 Jan. Brent futures positioning accounted for the majority of this decline, decreasing around 270% over the fortnight down to -15k lots. Meanwhile, WTI saw a similar trajectory, falling from 6.9k lots on 28 Jan down to -13.7k lots as of 10 Feb. Heating oil positioning remained above 0 while the rest of the products dipped below, with ICE gasoil showing the most bearish net positioning at -3.2k lots on 10 Feb. RBOB was the only futures contract where positioning became more bullish this fortnight, rising around 130% up to -2.8k lots, however, still remains the second lowest on the positioning model.

Brent Forecast: 10th February 2025

Tariff-ying Times Ahead  The front-month Brent futures contract jumped from $74.60/bbl at 20:00 GMT last Friday to $75.60/bbl at 12:15 GMT this morning (time of writing). Oil prices face an increasingly uncertain time ahead of the rising possibility of a

Weekly Oil Inventories Report

This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage

New Publication – ETFs Report

Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.

Refinery Margins Report

Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.

Brent Forecast Review: 7th February 2025

Brent crude futures endured a volatile week as prices grind lower and are on track for a third consecutive weekly decline. On 05 February, the Apr’25 contract closed below $75/bbl for the first time since 31 December. Market participants have

US EIA Weekly Report

This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Onyx Global Oil Balance

Update to Onyx Global Oil Balance: this update’s key revision revolves around supply, with lower non-OPEC supply growth in 2025 and an upward readjustment in Iraqi crude production following methodological changes by Petro-Logistics SA. Following a comprehensive review of Iraq’s crude balance, Petro-Logistics SA has reclassified “other” refinery feedstocks as crude oil, accounting for most of the revision in the country’s output.

This report contains Onyx Advisory’s Global Oil Liquids Balance, with projections of world oil supply (including OPEC crude oil production) and world oil demand to derive implied global oil stock changes by quarter.

The report is split into two parts: a detailed global balance on page 3 and a summary balance on page 4, which shows individual OPEC country crude production assumptions over the forecast period. The OPEC crude production level is contrasted with the ‘Call on OPEC’ crude to obtain the implied global stock change.

Historical data are sourced from the IEA, while Petro-logistics SA data are used for OPEC crude production.

Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 03 Feb 2025

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 31 Jan, we observed CTA buying flows tapering off as they reduced their length. Brent futures saw a 95% decline w/w in CTA net length to 775 lots. WTI futures saw a 110% decline in the same week to -1.9k lots, flipping into the negative handle for the first time since 3 Jan. ICE gasoil also dipped below 0 for the first time since 2 Jan, declining by 107% to -863 lots on 31 Jan. While heating oil saw a 40% decline w/w, net length remained above 0 on 31 Jan, at +12.7k lots. Finally, RBOB noted a 205% decline w/w to -10.9k lots.

Brent Forecast: 3rd February 2025

The talk of the market has been Trump’s tariff announcement on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. This week, we expect price action in Brent crude futures to remain rangebound between $75 and $79/bbl in the Apr’25 contract as the

New Publication – ETFs Report

Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, and BOIL. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.

Refinery Margins Report

Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.

Weekly Oil Inventories Report

This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage

Brent Forecast Review: 31st January 2025

Risk off, worry on On Monday, we forecast March Brent futures to end the week between $75-79.00/bbl. At 1600 GMT, March Brent is within this range at $76.75/bbl as it expires today, and April becomes the prompt at $75.75/bbl. This

COT Report: Year of the Snake

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

US EIA Weekly Report

This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Brent Forecast: 28th January 2025

March Brent began the week with a strong correction, down around 2% to close at $76.93/bbl on Monday. The move came with a significant weakening of price structure, as the prompt month-time spread shed some 20 cents to $0.80/bbl. Oil

Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 27 Jan 2025

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 24 Jan, we observed CTA buying flows tapering off as they reduced their length. Net positioning peaked on 17 Jan at 125k lots before falling to 63k lots by 24 Jan. From a product basis, heating oil is currently the most bullish product at 20k lots, as its pace of decline was exceeded by both Brent and WTI. Meanwhile, US gasoline (RBOB) futures remains the weakest segment, as its net position fell below 0 down to -6k lots.

Refinery Margins Report

Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.

Brent Forecast Review: 24th January 2025

Taking Off Risk On Monday, we forecast that the M1 Brent futures contract will be between $78 and $81/bbl at the end of the week. At 12:45 GMT (time of writing), the contract is around the lower end of this

Edge Updates

The Officials: Liquidity report Vol 1 Issue 2

The Officials Team is launching a Liquidity Report covering major futures markets and also key swap instruments. The Report contains average daily traded volumes for five working days periods and compares them with the previous five working days giving an indicator of liquidity flows into major instruments from week to week. You may consider this, as we do, as a momentum financial indicator into or out of an instrument. In addition, we also provide comparison with the previous year which gives an indication of a discrepancy year on year. These are indicators that are used to market practitioners.

Dated Brent Report – All Eyes On Midland

This week, we have seen a good example of the dichotomy between Brent’s futures and the physical market that underpins it. In the physical, it seems that the market has found a floor this week. Equinor and Gunvor were running down the physical premium with good offering, but this has been met with better buying now. On 17 Feb, Glencore, PetroIneos, and Totsa were bidding for Forties and Midland, and we expect some better support here with good refiner buying seen with decent margins. Our view is that for this month, there is not a lot of crude left in loading cycles for the North Sea grades. This leaves Midland’s availability key to the strength of Dated. The cold weather in the US, along with fog issues at ports, could cause some issues here, from what has been some strong export levels from the States.

European Window: Brent Fluctuates Around $75/bbl

The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price saw a choppy afternoon, swinging by a dollar from $76 to $75/bbl before rising to $75.70/bbl by 17:00 GMT. According to a Bloomberg report, privately-run terminals in China, particularly in Shandong, Yangshan, and Huizhou, have become key hubs for receiving sanctioned Russian and Iranian crude, allowing independent refiners to circumvent U.S. restrictions while shielding major state-owned operators from scrutiny. Diamondback Energy is expanding its Permian Basin footprint with a $4.1 billion acquisition of Double Eagle IV, paid through $3 billion in cash and stock, adding 27kb/d of production while prioritising efficiency and free cash flow amid a wave of industry consolidation. The G-7 is considering tightening the Russian oil price cap to curb Moscow’s war revenues and push for a negotiated peace in Ukraine, though details remain unclear and the plan faces diplomatic hurdles amid shifting U.S. foreign policy under Trump. Turkey’s largest oil refiner, Tupras, has halted Russian crude purchases due to U.S. sanctions, with final shipments arriving in February, marking a significant shift after Russian oil made up 65% of Turkey’s imports in 2024. Finally, the front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent futures spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $2.56/bbl respectively.

The Officials: Redrawing the map

Who knew? Talking can resolve conflicts. The Russians said talks with the US had gone well and they had covered a wide array of issues. Rubio said the end of the Ukraine war must be acceptable to all – but does he just mean those who are present in Riyadh? As the wordsmiths and silver-tongued diplomats got busy charming and schmoozing, Brent cooled from its peak over $76 to fall back towards $75, soothed by Lavrov’s revelation there should be some moratorium on attacks on energy facilities in the conflict – too late for Kazakhstan . An afternoon recovery saw Brent close at $75.62/bbl.

Onyx Alpha: Arb We There Yet?

Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in gasoline, NGL, and distillates swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.

Gasoline Report: Volatility Dials Down

The Mar’25 RBOB futures contract has consolidated in the $2.10/gal region and is supported by the 34-day moving average. It may find resistance at $2.17/gal, a high seen in October 2024 and January 2025. Momentum is neutral, while Onyx’s CTA model shows a near-flat position in RBOB futures. This contrasts with the lagged data of the CFTC COT report for the week ending 11 Feb that showed that money managers were getting longer in RBOB futures.

The Officials: No gun, no seat at the table

Rubio and Lavrov sitting across a table from each other, mediated by the Saudis – 30% of global oil production in one room! These are the really big players on the world stage, gathered to carve up the almost expired Ukraine. So sick it is in the infirmary attended by European doctors about to be judged not so good at their job. The US, who has guns, wants its money back and the Russians aren’t prepared to cede any territory they’ve seized. It’s been a 3-year slog, why would they?!
While the world is divided, anyone for $76? After the window closed at $75.18/bbl, Brent went on an adventure, clambering up beyond $76 by 10:45 GMT. Maybe those OPEC rumours are stickier than we thought or not everyone’s as optimistic as us about the prospect for peace in Ukraine – neither Lavrov nor Rubio looked especially happy during their meeting ☹.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Supported Above $75/bbl

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract was supported above the $75/bbl handle this morning, climbing to $75.85/bbl at 09:40 GMT, where it initially met resistance, before ultimately climbing to $75.95/bbl at 10:40 GMT (time of writing).

The Officials: The big guns gather

The Riyadh meeting represents the three biggest oil producers in the world: US, Saudi Arabia and Russia, with an output of over 31 mil b/d! Around one third of total global oil production. Lavrov, Rubio and MBS are the big wigs drawing out new lines on the map and energy must be at the centre of this new world order. Zelenskyy is also apparently going to visit Saudi Arabia this week – we wonder whether the others will stick around to wait for him or if he’ll be Mr Lonely. He’s busy as he needs a new home. He is also going to visit Turkey tomorrow, according to Erdoğan’s office. Maybe the Turkey Riviera beckons him.

Technical Analysis Report

The front-month Brent futures contract softened from an intraday high of $77.30/bbl on 11 Feb to $75/bbl the next day, following which it drifted sideways and now stands at $74.85/bbl on 17 Feb (at 16:20 GMT). The contract appears to be consolidating around the $75/bbl handle, with the 10-day (white line on the chart) and structural 100-day moving averages (purple line on the chart) converging towards each other just above $75/bbl, potentially establishing short-term resistance at this level. The 50-day MA (blue line on the chart) is above these two lines, although only slightly at $75.90/bbl. We expect to see short-term support at $74/bbl, having first been a significant resistance level in Q4’24. We could also see support at the $72/bbl handle, which the contract tested at the end of 2024. In the case that the contract breaks out to the upside, it would need to successfully surpass resistance at $77/bbl.

European Window: Brent Strengthens To $75.10/bbl

After softening this morning, the Apr’25 Brent futures contract saw steady strength this afternoon, rising from $74.45/bbl at 1215 GMT up to $75.10/bbl at 1750 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have ultimately remained rangebound today as markets await further developments toward potential Russia-Ukraine peace talks. In the news today, while OPEC+ is considering pushing back a series of monthly supply increases due to begin in April, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that OPEC+ producers are not looking to delay the April production hikes, Russia’s RIA news agency reported. In other news, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) reported a drone attack on its largest crude oil pump station in Russia, known as PS Kropotinskaya. The CPC operates a pipeline from northwest Kazakhstan to the Novorossiysk port on Russia’s Black Sea coast, which carries around 80% of Kazakh crude exports. Currently, PS Kropotkinskaya is out of service and the CPC pipeline is operating at reduced flow rates. Finally, Iraq’s Minister of Oil, Hayan Abdulghani, said in a statement that no obstacles remain to the resumption of oil exports from Kurdistan, with expectations for exports to take place by early March, according to Kurdistan24. After almost two years since the start of the dispute between Iraq and Kurdistan, Iraq’s Minister of Oil claims that Baghdad could now receive 300kb/d from the region. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.29/bbl and $2.28/bbl, respectively.

CFTC Weekly: Bearish Contemplation

In the week ending 11 Feb, combined open interest (OI) across both Brent and WTI futures increased by 67mb (+1.6%), following two consecutive weeks of declines. We saw a proportionately greater increase in Brent futures OI, which rose 44mb w/w, almost double compared to a 23mb w/w increase in WTI futures OI. Money managers added risk this week but were hesitant to add significant length, increasing their combined long positions across Brent and WTI by only 2mb (+0.4%). Meanwhile, we saw bearish sentiment among speculators start to pickup as money managers added 15.4mb (+10.5%) to their combined short positions. Net positioning has become increasingly bearish over the past few weeks, currently sitting at 415mb, the lowest level seen since December 2024. This rise in bearish sentiment may have been an ongoing reaction to US tariffs delays in addition to news of negotiations toward a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.

The Officials: Safe landing!

Trump wants rent (or get paid back) but Zelenski said no. We think he’s gone imminently. And UK Starmer is ready to send 25,000 troops to the Ukraine Starmer has to take the biscuit, He is offering to send a peacekeeping force to Ukraine, but it is not numerically possible. This costs loads of money and Reeves wants to hold defence spending at 2.3% of GDP for as long as possible. Starmer’s set to visit the White House next week, he’ll need to provide some grovelling form of
appeasement and Reeves might have to dig up $5-6 billion extra needed to raise that to 2.5%! Great use of tax money! Let’s be blunt here, NATO lost again and this means that an accommodation between Russia and the US will be ironed out in ‘Trump’s time’ as one of his envoys said. This means quick time in the Riyadh meeting. Note Switzerland was bypassed.

The Officials: Cat among the pigeons!

Europe has been cast off as JD Vance calls Europe’s leaders Kommisars and accused the politicians of ignoring the will of the people, cancelling elections, curtailing freedom of speech and incarcerating people for expressing their beliefs in a peaceful manner. He ruffled some of the grey-suited Europeans’ feathers with his barrage of criticism against Europe’s leadership. We hope the Munich Conference leads to a more lasting peace than the 1938 Agreement. Whatever Starmer says, insisting Ukraine’s momentum towards NATO is “irreversible”, it’s obvious Europe is relegated to the children’s table. They scream and shout for attention, but the grown-ups are busy talking among themselves. Scholz didn’t get a Valentine’s hug from Vance, who ignored him. ☹ Vance also told the Europeans to take care of themselves.

European Window: Brent Dips Below $75/bbl

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract increased from $75.45/bbl at 1200 GMT this afternoon up to $75.80/bbl at 1330 GMT, where prices sold-off to $74.85/bbl at 1750 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US aims to squeeze Iran’s oil exports to less than 10% of current levels, Bloomberg reported. “We are committed to bringing the Iranians to going back to the 100kb/d of oil exports” shipped during the first Trump administration, Bessent said in a Fox Business interview. In other news, ADNOC Drilling plans to borrow $1 billion from banks in 2025 to refinance expiring debt, the company’s CFO Youssef Salem told Bloomberg Television. Salem said “We expect to be refinancing and up-sizing to fund our growth”, stating the company has roughly $750 million in debt maturing in the fourth quarter. Finally, China has begun drilling ultra-deep oil and gas wells in the Taklimakan Desert, located in China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. One well, the Manshen 72-H6 in Xayar County is planned to reach a depth of 8,735 metres. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.31/bbl and $2.33/bbl, respectively.

Fuel Oil Report – Fuelled Up February

In High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO), the 3.5% barge complex weakened into the new year. The Feb/Mar’25 3.5% barge spread dropped from $4/mt on 27 Dec to a contango of -$1/mt on 14 Jan. While this contango was short-lived, the spread remains pressured and was seen at $1.25/mt on 17 Jan (at the time of writing). Coupling this with a stronger crude, the Feb’25 3.5% barge crack fell from -$5.60/bbl on 27 Dec to -$7.70/bbl at the time of writing. The crack has also seen significant sell-side interest from trade houses (who flipped from being net buyers on 8 Jan), end users, hedge funds and banks. In Asia, the Feb/Mar’25 Singapore 380 cst spread softened at the start of the year but rallied from $2/mt on 7 Jan to $7.50/mt on 17 Jan amid increased trade house and major buying. Accordingly, the Feb’25 380 East/West (380 vs 3.5% barges) surged up to $25.75/mt on 17 Jan. The differential between 180 cst and 380 cst fuel oil (Visco) in Feb’25 declined from $8.25/mt on 3 Jan to $6.50/mt on 17 Jan (at the time of writing).

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Supported Above $75/bbl

Apr’25 Brent futures strengthened from around $75.10/bbl at 0630 GMT this morning up to $75.55/bbl at 0835 GMT, before tapering off to $75.25/bbl at 1055 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, a Russian drone has caused significant damage to the radiation containment shelter at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant overnight, President Zelenskyy has stated. The attack caused a fire which has since been extinguished, while the UN’s energy watchdog said radiation levels remain normal, as per Reuters. In other news, India has agreed to boost oil and gas imports from the US in order to reduce the trade imbalance and avoid retaliatory tariffs, Bloomberg reported. India was once the top buyer of US crude, accounting for 14.5% of total US exports in 2021, however, the US accounted for less than 5% of India’s total imports in the first 11 months of 2024. Finally, the Nigerian government has signed agreements with Algeria and the Republic of Niger to advance the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) and enhance gas supplies to European markets, according to Nigeria’s BusinessDay. The pipeline is projected to stretch approximately 4,400km, connecting Nigerian gas fields in the Niger Delta to Europe. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.38/bbl and $2.50/bbl, respectively.

The Officials: How the mighty are fallen

Peace is coming even if the old and feeble European empires are still resisting, in words because they have no swords. American realism is clashing with the old, wounded German, British and French egos, but if you have no money and no swords all that you can do is moan – and moan they will! America has realized that dumping material and money into Ukraine will turn out more financially disastrous that the $3 trillion consumed in Afghanistan.
If there’s any doubt of the outcome look at the markets; they have no emotion, they just react to conditions. TTF shed 18% in three working days and is now trading at €48.58/MWh. The German Dax index is up 3.7% in five days and 8% in a month; the economy likes peace even if Scholz doesn’t. The expiring German Chancellor won’t be seen by Vance in his own country at the Munich conference because, as an American official said; “We don’t need to see him, he won’t be chancellor long.” So true. Rollover Beethoven. 😊 And Macron, all he can do is take a stab with his mighty pen and write whatever in the FT about a response to the American ‘electroshock’. He also has no money and is on borrowed time. The war’s over.

The Officials: Losing never felt so good!

The German stock market likes the developments, with the Dax up over 2% today to a record high! Losing has never felt so good. NATO chief, Rutte, insisted that Ukraine will be involved in any peace talks and, apparently, the Kremlin agreed that its foe should be involved “in one way or another”. European leaders also chirped up a chorus that they will not be ignored or disregarded. A show of force or more likely a lunge for some kind of relevance. Zelenskyy said Ukraine won’t accept any deals made between the US and Russia in its absence, like he has any option. Just make it end!

European Window: Brent Recovers To $75/bbl

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract has made a recovery after weakness this morning, trading from around $74.10/bbl at 1300 GMT up to $75.00/bbl at 1730 GMT. In the news today, President Zelenskyy said that Ukraine would not accept any bilateral agreement reached by Russia and the US without Kyiv’s involvement. The Kremlin responded that Ukraine would “of course” be involved in peace talks but that there would be a separate US-Russian channel for negotiations, as per Reuters. In other news, Hamas stated it is willing to proceed with the Gaza ceasefire deal, agreeing to release the next three Israeli hostages this weekend in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. This came as the 42-day Gaza ceasefire appeared close to failure this week with Israel and Hamas accusing the other of violating the peace deal. Finally, Syria is struggling to secure crude and refined oil products through public tenders as shipowners remain cautious about sending vessels to the country in case they are detained, according to an Argus report. In January, Syria’s transitional government issued tenders seeking 4.2mb of crude oil, 80kt of 90 RON gasoline, and 100kt of fuel oil and gasoil, all of which closed earlier this month. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.36/bbl and $2.48/bbl, respectively.

Trader Meeting Notes: Sell Baby Sell

This week reminded the market that we do not know what will happen next. The whipsaw of news seemed to pull the rug from under you as soon as you believed it. So what can we say really happened this week?

The Officials: The grind goes on…

Don’t blink, folks, you’ll miss it! Things are moving so fast now. Lethargic Europe may be apprehensive about coming peace, but Asian trading took it as a bearish sign! As they should have of course! The entire complex is bearish from oil to aluminium via gas and power! We rejoice for beaten down Europeans even if they can’t see how good losing is sometimes. From the open at almost $75, Brent quickly sold off, dumping 50c. The Asians seemed content with a good day’s work and let Brent hover near $74.50 for the remainder of the session. Europe’s entry naturally led to some choppiness and Brent closed at $74.67/bbl. Look at page 2 for a rundown of key contracts’ dump– gas, fuel oil, gasoline and diesel all got hit!

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Declines To $74.10/bbl

Apr’25 Brent futures initially saw small strength this morning, increasing from $74.50/bbl on 0600 GMT up to a touch under $74.90/bbl at 0910 GMT, but has since fallen to $74.10/bbl at 1025 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have continued to face bearish pressure after President Trump’s peace deal talks between Russia and Ukraine on Wednesday. In the news today, Russia’s commercial revenues from the sale of crude oil and oil products in January rose by $900 million m/m to $15.8 billion, with export volumes stable despite US sanctions, according to the IEA. In other news, Norwegian oil and gas investments this year are projected to exceed the record levels of 2024, a national statistics office industry survey showed. The survey forecast 2025 investment at 253.8 billion crowns, up from 251.2 billion crowns last year, driven by plans to invest more in producing fields, new developments and onshore facilities. Finally, Chevron is set to reduce up to 20% of its global workforce by the end of next year, which could affect 8000 jobs. Chevron is looking to reduce costs after the megadeal that will see the company combine with Hess Crop, as per Reuters. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.28/bbl and $2.22/bbl, respectively.

CFTC Predictor: Back In Business?

In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.

The Officials: Speedy Gonzales races for peace!

Trump did it and is ending the Ukraine/Russia war!!!! Our joy! Senseless deaths of young sent to fight by old will stop and Europe can stop its economic bleed. Details are being worked out but Russian molecules, gas, liquids and solids will flow back into Europe. A shot in the arm to moribund Germany! This is bearish for crude; it’ll be shipped normally. For diesel, fuel and lighter products too. Shipping routes will be cut again so instead of going from Russia to India for refining and back to Europe, it’ll flow direct to Europe. Bad for shippers, good for consumers. We feel bullish Europe again. Trump’s soliloquy on Truth Social stated in no uncertain terms the mutual respect with Putin and how well their phone call went. They spoke about all sorts of stuff. Including (among other things): Ukraine, the Middle East, Energy and AI. Putin apparently echoed Trump’s “COMMON SENSE” campaign slogan and Trump said the war must end and that “our respective teams [will] start negotiations.” An end to the needless campaign of destruction is in sight! At last! It’s just debilitatingly sad it’s taken 3 years to get here… US Secretary of Defense, Hegseth, said returning to the 2014 borders is “unrealistic”. This is huge! Everything’s changing fast.

European Window: Brent Futures Weakens To $75.35/bbl

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract weakened this afternoon, declining from $76.35/bbl at 1200 GMT down to $75.35/bbl at 1720 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw bearish sentiment this afternoon, with EIA stats released today at 1530 GMT for the week to 07 Feb showing a larger-than-expected 4.07mb build in US crude oil inventories. In the news today, OPEC has released its February oil market report, forecasting global oil demand in 2025 to grow by 1.4mb/d y/y, largely unchanged from January’s assessment. OPEC projects OECD oil demand to grow by 0.1mb/d y/y and by 1.3mb/d In the non-OECD region, mostly driven by Chinese demand. Total world oil demand is anticipated to average 106.6mb/d in 2026. In other news, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said the country complied with its OPEC+ output quota in January and February so far, quoted by Russian news agency Interfax. Meanwhile, Indian refiners are reconfiguring insurers and vessel owners to continue receiving cheaper Russian oil without violating US sanctions on Russian oil exports, anonymous industry executives told Bloomberg. Finally, CNPC and Kazakhstan’s KazTransGas have signed an agreement increasing the contracted gas volume for the 2024-25 supply year by one-third, according to Xinhua news agency. CNPC also finalized a crude oil spot purchase agreement with Tengizchevroil, though specific contract volume figures were not disclosed, as per S&P Global. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.32/bbl and $2.47/bbl, respectively.

LPG Report: Middle East going South?

US Mont Belvieu (TET) propane found support in the fortnight ending 11 Feb, climbing from 84.50c/gal on 28 Jan to above 89c/gal on 11 Feb. Expectations of colder weather in the coming two weeks have supported expectations of heating demand in the US, with the National Weather Service predicting colder-than-normal temperatures across the US Eastern coast, Gulf Coast and the US Midcontinent between 17 and 25 February.

The Officials: The steady grind…

Our sources in China report that one cargo ready to discharge to the account of PetroChina was affected by the prompt enactment of the 10% tariff on crude imports from the US. Including the freight cost, PetroChina would face a tariff bill around $8.00/Bbl. This would force PetroChina to redirect the cargo elsewhere. But separately our sources in Beijing say, not too many cargoes are scheduled to ship in from the US. So, regarding tariffs, one source says, “ready steady, go”. The Dubai window has really settled into a pattern for February: lots of bidders outnumbering the sellers, but nobody stepping up to set the pace, all afraid to pick up the Totsa mantle. On the sellside, only Chevron and Reliance actually got involved today, while the buyside was awash with bidders – the usual suspects, Vitol, Equinor, PetroChina being some of the most active – raising bids, but they seemed largely to concur that sellers were asking for too much.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent falls to $76.30/bbl

The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price came off on Wednesday morning, falling from $76.90/bbl at 07:15 GMT to the low $76/bbl region, trading at $76.30/bbl at 10:30 GMT (time of writing). Price action retreated as the macro environment weighed on sentiment, with Jerome Powell indicating that the Fed was not in a rush to lower rates, while the 9mb build in crude stocks as reported by the API weighed on sentiment. In the news, an oil tanker that loaded from Novorossiysk carrying 1mb of Urals crude from US-sanctioned Russian producer Surgutneftegas has been idling off India’s west coast, as Indian authorities signal they will not accept cargoes loaded after the Jan. 10 sanctions deadline. Fuel oil stocks at the UAE’s Port of Fujairah surged 25% in a week, driving total oil product inventories to an eight-month high, while ship fuel demand remained sluggish despite the end of the Chinese New Year holidays in China. TotalEnergies and Aker BP have initiated an independent review of their stakes in Equinor’s Johan Sverdrup oilfield, aiming to increase their shares in the North Sea’s largest producing field. Finally, the front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent futures spreads are at $0.33/bbl and $2.56/bbl respectively.

European Window: Brent Inches Up To $75.85/bbl

Apr’25 Brent futures failed to maintain strength above $77.00/bbl this afternoon and softened to $76.46/bbl at 15:22 GMT before recovering to around $76.94/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). Russian oil production fell below its OPEC+ quota in January, alleviating fears of oversupply. Output dropped to 8.962 mb/d, coming in at 16 kb/d under the approved level set by the production agreement. Petro-Victory Energy, in a 50/50 partnership with Azevedo & Travassos Petroleo, acquired 13 oil fields spanning 38,301 acres in Brazil’s Potiguar Basin. The deal adds 125mb of oil in place, boosting production capacity and proven reserves by 50%. The US Dollar stays flat for a second day, with the DXY holding above 108.00. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled no rush to adjust rates, while the Greenback remains fairly unfazed by Trump’s 15% steel and aluminium tariff, set for March 12. Chinese retaliatory tariffs targeting US coal and LNG came into play today. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.41/bbl and $2.86/bbl, respectively.

Dubai Market Report – Hitting The Brakes

After the M1 Brent/Dubai contract fell to all-time lows in our last report, down to an intraday low of almost -$2.60/bbl on 28 Jan, there almost seemed no limit to bearish sentiment. However, the contract has found some momentary respite, recovering from a weekly low of around -$0.70/bbl on 07 Feb up to an intraday high of -$0.34/bbl on 11 Feb amid support in Brent crude. This resurgence was also a function of weakness in Dubai spreads, with the prompt Mar/Apr falling from over $1/bbl on 16 Jan to $0.70/bbl at the time of writing. Notably, trade houses were seen buying the front Dubai spreads against Onyx this week, buying almost 1.4mb and 500kb in the Mar/Apr and Apr/May Dubai spreads, respectively.

Naphtha Report: Strength Surges

The naphtha complex rebalanced amid mass stop-outs and heavy selling into the cracks, which saw huge pressure in both regions. Stronger crude pressured the cracks alongside weaker demand estimates in the East and clear refiner selling in MOPJ flat price which spooked the market. The East retained strength slightly more as the E/W saw a huge rally in January. The physical market in Europe has been very weak, but both regions seem to have reached a bottom. Keep an eye out for better support here for something for bulls to bite on to.

The Officials: Who wants a sweetener?

And when we thought we had seen it all, some compliance folks are now set to lose their jobs while others have permission to loosen the purse strings. Just as the inimitable Trump swishes in and stops the enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act to Further American Economic and National Security. In other words ! Here is the link: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/pausing-foreign-corrupt-practices-act-enforcement-tofurther-
american-economic-and-national-security/. He adds: “overexpansive and unpredictable FCPA enforcement against American citizens and businesses — by our own Government — for routine business practices in other nations not only wastes limited prosecutorial resources that could be dedicated to preserving American freedoms, but actively harms American economic competitiveness and, therefore, national security.” No need to carry brown bags it’s routine, and it is ok!

Dated Brent Supplementary Report – Silence of the Bulls

The North Sea Dated Brent physical differential continued to be pressured in the week ending 7 February, with Equinor and Gunvor on the sell side. The physical reached a low on 5 February at -$0.22/bbl before rising to $0.06/bbl by 10 February, with Glencore bidding for four cargoes of WTI Midland in the window.