Worldwide

The Sep’25 Brent futures contract fell to $68.21/bbl at 10:14 BST. Prices have since slightly recovered to $68.59/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, several oilfields in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region have halted production after three consecutive days of drone attacks caused significant infrastructure damage. While no group has claimed responsibility, Iraqi Kurdistan security sources suspect Iran-backed militias. Gulf Keystone Petroleum shut its Shaikan field as a precaution despite no direct damage, while Norwegian firm DNO suspended output at Tawke and Peshkabir following explosions. Kurdistan’s government condemned the attacks as terrorism aimed at damaging economic infrastructure and endangering energy workers. In other news, Reuters reported that China accelerated its crude oil stockpiling in June, with surplus crude reaching 1.42 mb/d the fourth consecutive month above 1 mb/d. Imports hit 12.14 mb/d, the highest in nearly two years, while domestic production was 4.43 mb/d. Refinery throughput rose to 15.15 mb/d, its highest since September 2023. The surge in imports in the second quarter coincided with falling oil prices when the cargoes were purchased, continuing China’s strategy of buying more when prices are low and slowing imports when prices rise. Iran has seized a foreign tanker in the Gulf of Oman for allegedly smuggling 2m litres of fuel, according to Hormozgan province’s chief justice. The report did not specify the tanker’s name or flag. Iran, with some of the world’s cheapest fuel due to subsidies and currency devaluation, faces persistent fuel smuggling to neighbouring countries and Gulf states. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct and 6-month Sep/Mar’26 spreads are at $0.89/bbl and $2.35/bbl respectively.

The M1 (Sep’25) Brent futures contract climbed from around $68.60/bbl at 08:20 BST this morning to a high of $69.35/bbl at 10:25 BST, but retreated to $68.80/bbl by 11:05 BST

The Sep’25 Brent futures rallied to $71.19/bbl at 08.48. Prices fell to $70.76/bbl but bounced back to $71.46/bbl at 11:05 BST (time of writing). In the news, China’s crude oil imports surged to 12.14 mb/d in June, a 7.4% y/y increase, driven by higher deliveries from Saudi Arabia and Iran. The spike was fuelled by refinery restarts and independent refiners capitalising on steep discounts for sanctioned barrels. Saudi crude shipments rose by 845 kb/d to 1.78 mb/d, while Iranian imports climbed by 445kb/d despite US sanctions. These discounted barrels were particularly attractive to China’s “teapot” refineries in Shandong. In other news,  EU envoys are nearing agreement on an 18th sanctions package against Russia, which includes lowering the price cap on Russian oil. The package aims to curb Moscow’s energy revenues in response to its invasion of Ukraine. A floating price cap, set at 15% below the average market price of Russian crude over the past three months, is part of the package, with an initial cap of about $47/bbl. The price will be revised every six months. Slovakia has raised concerns but has agreed to the new measures. A formal approval is expected at a foreign ministers’ meeting on Tuesday. The Cano Limon-Covenas Oil Pipeline in Colombia was bombed by unknown actors, causing a suspension of oil pumping between the northeast oil fields and the Caribbean coast. The operator, Cenit, activated a contingency plan to manage spills and environmental contamination. The military suspects the National Liberation Army (ELN) and FARC dissidents may be behind the attack. No casualties were reported. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Sep/Oct spread is at $1.27/bbl and the 6-month Sep/Mar spread is at $3.65/bbl.

The Sep’25 Brent Futures contract fell to $68.56/bbl at 09:54 BST before rallying up to $69.04/bbl at 11:40 BST (time of writing). In the news, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports to China are set to rise to the highest levels in over two years, with Saudi Aramco planning to ship about 51 mb to China in August, or 1.65 mb/d. This represents a 4 mb increase from July, the highest since April 2023. China’s top refiner, Sinopec, will receive more crude as it ramps up output after plant maintenance. The rise in exports comes as Saudi Arabia raises oil prices for Asian and European buyers, amid expectations of increased domestic demand and Chinese consumption. In other news, Shell has received environmental approval to drill up to five deep-water wells off South Africa’s west coast, targeting the Northern Cape Ultra Deep Block in the Orange Basin. The wells will be drilled at depths of 2,500 to 3,200 metres. However, the company’s previous exploration efforts on the east coast have faced legal challenges over environmental concerns. Russia’s oil revenue fell nearly 14% in June to $13.57B, due to lower global prices and higher OPEC+ output. While Russia’s crude production remained stable at 9.2 mb/d, exports of oil products dropped. The IEA raised concerns about Russia’s ability to sustain its production capacity, noting a decline in exports. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct spread is at $1.09/bbl and the 6-month Sep/Mar’36 spread is at $2.85/bbl.

The Sep’25 Brent Futures contract fell to $69.82/bbl at 09:41 BST before bouncing back to $70.07/bbl. Prices have softened to $69.92/bbl at 11:10 BST (time of writing). In the news, OPEC has revised its global oil demand forecasts for the next four years, reducing them due to slower Chinese growth. However, the group has raised its longer-term outlook, citing rising oil needs in developing countries. OPEC now expects global demand to average 105 mb/d in 2025, growing to 106.3 mb/d in 2026, and reaching 111.6 mmb/d by 2029. In other news, Indian Oil Corp (IOC) plans to shut its 300kb/d diesel desulphuriser unit at its Panipat refinery for an upgrade to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) starting next year. The overhaul is scheduled for late this year or early next year, but it won’t impact diesel output as additional units are available at the refinery. The upgraded unit will process used cooking oil to produce 30 kmt of SAF annually. Indian Oil aims to meet India’s target of 1% SAF in aviation fuel by 2027, with a further increase to 2% in 2028. Equinor has discovered gas in the Skred prospect near the Johan Castberg field in the Barents Sea, with preliminary estimates indicating between 0.3 B and 0.5 B standard cubic metres of recoverable gas equivalent. The licensees, including Equinor (46.3% stake), Vaar Energi (30%), and Petoro (23.7%), will evaluate the discovery for potential integration with the Johan Castberg field. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct spread is at $1.15/bbl and the 6-month Sep/Mar’26 spread is at $3.22/bbl.

The Sep’25 Brent futures contract rallied to $70.71/bbl at 09:41 BST before softening a touch to $70.37/bbl at 11:45 BST. In the news, the UAE’s Energy Minister, Suhail al-Mazrouei, stated that oil markets are absorbing OPEC+’s production increases without a significant rise in inventories, indicating continued strong demand. Despite several months of production hikes, OPEC+ has not seen a major build-up in inventories, suggesting the market is in need of more oil. Mazrouei emphasized the importance of stability in the oil market and highlighted that while price fluctuations are important, the focus should also be on ensuring the right price to encourage future investments. In other news, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has adjusted its forecast, predicting jet fuel consumption to reach 8 mb/d by 2027, surpassing 2019’s level but showing slower growth. US immigration policies and global macroeconomic uncertainties are dampening US-bound travel, while domestic air travel in some regions, like China and Indonesia, shows signs of stagnation. As a result, global jet fuel consumption is expected to grow more slowly in the coming years, with demand in 2025 and 2026 forecasted to rise at a rate of just over 1%. This morning a mission was underway to rescue the crew of the Eternity C cargo ship, which sank in the Red Sea following an attack that killed at least four crew members. The attack on 7 July, attributed to Yemen’s Houthi militia, has heightened concerns about supply security in the Red Sea. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct spread is at $1.20/bbl and the 6-month Sep/Mar’26 spread is at $3.45/bbl.