Reports

Industry-leading market insights. Get daily, weekly and monthly reports from Onyx Research, featuring expert analysis and interactive graphs. ​

Naphtha & Gasoline reports

Please note that these reports will now be published every Thursday.

Brent Forecast: 23rd June 2025

Brent crude futures rose by 11% over the past week, reaching 5-month highs as the Iran-Israel conflict worsened, with the market pricing in a higher geopolitical risk premium. In the latest escalation, strikes from the US on Iranian nuclear sites

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CFTC Weekly (ICE COT): Shorts Stop Out?

The M1 Brent futures contract (Aug’25) strengthened during the week ending 17 Jun as geopolitical tensions accelerated between Israel and Iran. The front-month contract climbed from $66.60/bbl on 10 Jun to close above the critical $70/bbl level on 12 Jun,

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European Window cover

European Window: Brent Supported Above $76/bbl

The Aug’25 Brent crude futures rose from $76.02/bbl at 13:29 BST to $76.91/bbl at 14:52 BST and softened to $76.60/bbl at 17:10 BST (time of writing). The UK is withdrawing embassy staff from Iran as a precaution amid ongoing exchanges

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Fuel Oil report cover

Fuel Oil Report – Getting Gassed Up…?

In High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO), Geopolitical headlines initially drove cracks and spreads sharply higher, but the rally was quickly sold off, with the 380-grade structure giving back its gains. Early strength came from reports of stronger Egyptian HSFO demand

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Trader Meeting Notes

Trader Meeting Notes: Strait out of Tehran

On Wednesday, JP Morgan said their estimated Brent fair value stood at $66/bbl, considering the low probability of the Strait of Hormuz entirely shutting down. The M1 Brent futures, however, rallied to $76/bbl this day and now stands at $78.65/bbl

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Naphtha report

Naphtha Report: Hormuz Hassles

Initially, this fortnight was relatively quiet, and we saw a naphtha market saturated with short positions and extremely high open interest in many of the prompt contracts across the complex. In the early morning of 13 Jun, Israel launched 200

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CFTC Weekly cover

CFTC Predictor: Turning down the risk in RBOB

In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s

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LPG Report: Weight of the Freight

The Jul’25 Mont Belvieu TET propane contract (Energy Transfer), C3 LST, rallied from a 5 Jun low of $0.71/gal to $0.82/gal as of June 18. Over that same period, the 30-day correlation between the front-month C3 LST and WTI futures

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Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent up to $75.58/bbl

The August Brent Futures contract softened slightly through the morning, trading down from $76.89/bbl at 04:00 BST to $75.30/bbl at 10:25 BST, before picking up to $75.78/bbl at the time of writing (11:00 BST). In headlines, on the US-Iran front,

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European Window cover

European Window: Brent climbs above $75/bbl

The Aug’25 Brent crude futures saw a bullish performance on Tuesday afternoon, surpassing $75/bbl, peaking at $75.66/bbl at 15:51 BST and traded at $75.30/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). Fears of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have kept

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Technical Analysis report cover

Technical Analysis Report: Chopping Around

The M1 Brent futures contract jumped from a high of nearly $68/bbl on 10 Jun to $70/bbl on 12 Jun. The contract subsequently gapped up to $74/bbl on 13 Jun due to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, but has

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Dubai Market Report – A Quiet Place

Given the return of geopolitical risk and the resulting hysterical volatility in the futures market, it has been a quieter-than-expected period in the Dubai market. In theory, Brent/Dubai was expected to crater on fears of supply disruption in the Middle

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