After weakness this morning, the Dec’24 Brent futures flat price recovered this afternoon. Trading a touch above of $71.00/bbl at 12:35 BST, flat price tested the $71.80/bbl resistance level multiple times before finally breaking through around 15:45 BST and reaching $72.25/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). This price action may reflect the increased risk of conflict escalation in the Middle East as Israel threatens a ground invasion in Lebanon. In the news, Libya’s halted oil production is expected to gradually resume on 1 Oct, according to Italian news agency Agenzia Nova. In other news, imports of Iranian crude into China are set to reach a record high of 1.79mb/d for the month of September, according to ship-tracking data by Kpler. Finally, amid a dispute dating back to the 1970s over oil-rich islands in the Gulf of Guinea, a hearing has begun between OPEC members Gabon and Equatorial Guinea at the International Court of Justice to settle maritime boundaries and sovereignty. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.28/bbl and $0.72/bbl, respectively.
