Onyx Research
Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.
OECD Oil Inventories held by industry
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The Officials: North Sea snooze!
June 6, 2025
On the 81st anniversary of D-Day, the North Sea was sombrely quiet and there was not a great battle among the traders. But the longs were definitely winning in the flat price front. Brent hit triple six for a while, $66.6+ something. The window players look fatigued after a busy week; Totsa and Mercuria were back, bidding for Midland yet again, bringing bids of +$1.45 and +$1.65 over dated. The sellside was also populated by the usual suspects, as BP and Phillips offered again, bringing +$2.00 and +$2.10 over dated to the table. But neither side wanted to budge much further, and no one traded.
Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Above $65/bbl
June 6, 2025
Aug ’25 Brent futures slumped overnight to reach $64.90/bbl at 08.30 BST before rising to $65.35/bbl at 11.30 BST (time of writing). Prices are on track for the first weekly gain in three weeks. Equinor has announced Norway’s Mongstad oil refinery is ramping up its output following an outage. China’s consumer inflation eased in March, with the CPI down 0.1% y/y, an improvement from February’s 0.7% drop, and core CPI rose 0.5%, hinting at recovering demand. Food prices fell less sharply, and the monthly CPI decline was linked to ample food supply, off-season travel, and lower oil prices. However, factory-gate prices continued to weaken, as the Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped 2.5%y/y, pointing to ongoing pressure on industrial demand. Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) has reportedly signed at least nine new agreements with foreign service providers, including two Chinese companies, to maintain oil production and sustain foreign currency inflows following the exit of Chevron due to US sanctions. The companies involved include Aldyl Argentina, Anhui Guangda Mining Investing and China Concord Resources, according to internal PDVSA documents reviewed by Bloomberg. According to the document, PDVSA predicts that the nine blocks under these 20-year contracts will yield a combined 600kb/d with $20bn (1.97trn bolivars) in capital expenditure. In April, Spain halted crude oil imports from Venezuela ahead of the US sanctions deadline set by the Trump administration. Repsol had been receiving Venezuelan oil from PDVSA as debt repayment but was ordered to wind down operations by May 27. The move followed a surge in imports earlier in 2024. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep spread is $0.61/bbl, and the 6-month Aug/Feb ’26 spread is $1.50/bbl.
The Officials: Knives out!
June 6, 2025
Rome is burning! Brutus, Cassius, Judas… they’re all out for revenge. The knives are out and everything’s fair game! Reality TV soap operas can’t come close to this level of drama. We wouldn’t blame the US’ global rivals for warming their feet by the fire with a massive bucket of popcorn watching this one go down. The political schism is of monumental scale and could rip the American political scene asunder! As chaos engulfs the US political scene, oil remains largely unchanged, with August Brent still firmly anchored to $65, on a steady downtrend through today’s Asian session.
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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.
