ICE TTF futures have held steady through mid-October, despite a brief decline from softened perceived geopolitical risk, with concerns over supply tightening as the Gazprom-Ukraine transit deal ends. Meanwhile, the Dec’24 Basis dropped from $0.70/MMBtu to $0.50/MMBtu before stabilising, with a cautious short-term outlook amid potential supply risks. Henry Hub futures have stabilised between $2.80 and $3/MMBtu, though bearish sentiment continues due to high inventories and lower-than-expected heating demand. EIA data shows US storage at 3,785 bcf as of mid-October, up 2.9% year-on-year, and warmer winter forecasts alongside increased production could pressure prices further.
