Onyx Research
Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.
Energy futures correlation with the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index
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The Officials: AD-nocking the prices down!
June 9, 2025
Some OSPs bring joy, others bring pain. Joy for consumers ready to gobble up cheap crude, against pain of producers squeezed by low prices. The Murban/Dubai debacle had ADNOC up in arms, frustrated its ‘most valuable’ grade was setting the benchmark, pricing below the heavier, sourer Upper Zakum. For July, Murban is set at $63.62/bbl, down over 4 bucks from June pricing, with Upper Zakum set at a 10c premium, Das at Murban -55c and Umm Lulu at Murban +15c. The 10c UZ/Murban inversion is minor stuff compared to the downward flat price correction. This is real money! Imagine you produce 4 mil b/d and export 3 mil b/d, (this is just illustrative) but this would mean $12 million less revenue per day or $360 mil less per month. We’ll be talking billions if the market doesn’t recover and persistent overproduction continues. You cannot overproduce and have no price impact. In other words: you can’t have your cake and eat it!
Energy futures correlation with the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index
June 9, 2025
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Above $66.50/bbl
June 9, 2025
The Aug’25 Brent crude futures opened at $66.40/bbl on Monday morning, found support at $66.10/bbl and climbed to $66.60/bbl by 11:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Venezuela plans a 50% fuel price hike to $0.75/litre as it scrambles to offset lost oil revenue following the exit of Chevron and other foreign operators. China’s daily crude oil imports fell to their lowest level in four months during May, following increases in March and April mid a downward price trend. Iran is set to respond to a new US nuclear proposal on Monday, amid heightened tensions following an IAEA report on Iranian implosion tests and Tehran’s claims of acquiring sensitive Israeli intelligence. The U.S. expects Russia’s full retaliation for Ukraine’s recent drone attack to be a large-scale, multi-pronged strike involving missiles and drones, with symbolic targets likely. The U.S. and China are set to resume trade talks in London focused on rare earths and advanced tech, aiming to revive stalled agreements and ease tensions amid mutual economic pressures and strategic rivalry. Finally, the front (Aug/Sep) and 6-month (Aug/Feb) Brent futures spreads are at $0.73/bbl and $1.89/bbl respectively.
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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.
