The Jan’25 Brent futures contract continued to weaken this afternoon from $72.85/bbl at 12:00 GMT down to $71.80/bbl at 17:55 GMT (time of writing). This afternoon, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar in Jerusalem has stated there was a “certain progress” in ceasefire talks with Hezbollah. In the news today, Saudi Arabia is projected to deliver 36.5mb of crude to China in December, reduced from an expected 37.5mb for November amid weak Chinese oil demand, according to trade data compiled by Reuters. December would mark the second consecutive month of lower Saudi deliveries to China. In other news, India has become the EU’s largest fuel exporter this year by taking advantage of a refining loophole, as reported by Finland’s Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). This loophole allows non-Russian countries to process crude oil without restrictions on its origin, despite Western sanctions. Between Q1 and Q3’24, this allowed the Jamnagar, Vadinar, and new Mangalore refinery to export 58% more oil products to the EU y/y, while India was the second-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels following China in October. Finally, US national gasoline prices have fallen to a 3-year low today at $3.03/gal, the lowest since May 2021. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.20/bbl and $0.77/bbl, respectively.
