Post-US election, several asset classes including equities and cryptocurrencies have seen significant upward momentum. In contrast, crude oil markets have shown minimal reaction and even ebbed slightly, as traders may be awaiting further clarity on the Trump administration’s domestic and foreign oil policies. After trading at almost $76/bbl on 5 Nov, the Jan’25 Brent futures contract has since fallen down to $72.25/bbl at the time of writing on 14 Nov (08:30 GMT). We saw a sell-off in crude oil prices this week from around $75.95/bbl on 7 Nov to $71.75/bbl on 11 Nov, with a brief dip to the $71.00/bbl level on 13 Nov, however, prices did not break through this psychological support. This week, the unveiling of China’s $1.4 trillion stimulus package disappointed markets, as Chinese officials neglected to announce additional measures to boost domestic demand, while the weakening and movement of Hurricane Rafael away from the US Gulf Coast eased concerns of supply disruption. In line with this lack of strength in Brent crude, Onyx’s weekly CFTC COT predictor anticipates a withdrawal of speculative long positions in Brent alongside a moderate increase in shorts for the week ending 12 Nov. Managed-by-money players against Onyx are expected to reduce their long positions by just over 14mb, while increasing their short positions by 5.3mb.
