Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
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The Aug’25 Brent futures contract fell to $66.32/bbl at 14:36 BST before rallying to $67.06/bbl. Prices have since softened to $66.63/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing). In the news, OPEC’s oil output rose by 150 kb/d in May, reaching 26.75 mb/d, according to a Reuters survey. The rise was limited as Iraq cut production to compensate for earlier overproduction. Saudi Arabia saw the largest increase at 130 kb/d, still 100kb/d below its quota. Overall, the five OPEC nations involved in the May agreement raised output by 180 kb/d, below the planned 310kb/d due to offsetting compensation cuts. In other news, California’s fuel imports surged to 279 kb/d in May, the highest since 2021, as refinery outages and declining in-state capacity drove the state to rely more heavily on imports, especially from Asia and atypical sources like the Bahamas and India. Imports from South Korea and other Asian countries made up nearly 70% of May volumes, while Bahamas shipments hit a record 38kb/d. Refinery closures and supply crunches are shifting California toward long-term import dependency, raising fuel costs. Kenya plans to begin commercial crude oil production and exports in 2026, according to Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi. This development hinges on the finalization of Gulf Energy Ltd’s acquisition of Tullow Oil’s assets in the country, including the long-stalled South Lokichar Basin project. The field is expected to produce between 60kb/d and 100kb/d, with an estimated 560 mb recoverable over a 25-year period. The project could position Kenya as a new oil exporter and boost its standing in the global energy market. Finally the front-month Aug/Sep spread is at $0.73/bbl and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spread is at $1.89/bbl.
London Calling Last week, the front-month Brent futures contract recorded its first w/w increase in three weeks, with the contract closing above $66/bbl for the first time since 26 April. At the time of writing, the M1 Brent futures contract
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.
