The Feb’25 Brent futures flat price continued to slide on Monday afternoon, falling from the $72.70/bbl level at 11:00 GMT to $72/bbl by 16:50 GMT, before finding technical support and bouncing up to $72.12/bbl by 17:20 GMT (time of writing). In the news, India’s crude imports in November saw Middle Eastern oil rise to a 9-month high, accounting for 48%, while Russian oil fell to its lowest share in three quarters at 32%, driven by refinery maintenance and adherence to Middle Eastern supply contracts. Efforts to broker a Gaza ceasefire have gained momentum, with progress on key issues like prisoner exchanges and troop deployment, but major sticking points, including the duration of the ceasefire and the broader terms for ending the war, remain unresolved amid dire humanitarian conditions in the region. According to an EIA article, improved operational efficiency and technological advancements have enabled U.S. crude oil production in the Lower 48 states to reach a record 11.3 mb/d in November 2024, despite a declining rig count, with productivity per rig expected to rise further in 2025 due to continued innovation and new pipeline capacity. US SPR crude inventories rose by 0.3mb w/w to 393.3mb last week. Finally, the front (Feb/Mar) and 6-month (Feb/Aug) Brent futures spreads are at $0.29/bbl and $1.55/bbl respectively.
