The Aug’25 Brent Futures contract fell off to $75.99/bbl at 15:22 BST before recovering to $77.30/bbl at 17:30 BST. Prices then dropped to $75.18/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). The price drops comes after reports of Iran launching attacks against US bases in Qatar. In the news, US President Donald Trump called for lower oil prices following recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities that stoked fears of a supply disruption. “Everyone, keep oil prices down, I'm watching! You're playing into the hands of the enemy, don't do it,” Trump posted in all caps on Truth Social. ...

Brent crude futures rose by 11% over the past week, reaching 5-month highs as the Iran-Israel conflict worsened, with the market pricing in a higher geopolitical risk premium. In the latest escalation, strikes from the US on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend mark the first time that the US has directly attacked Iranian territory, adding another layer of volatility and risk premiums. The market’s primary focus is the Iran-Israel war and subsequent concerns of supply disruptions. We anticipate Aug’25 Brent crude prices to remain in the high 70s by the end of the week, between $75-80/bbl. We highlight the ...

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The Aug’25 Brent crude futures rose from $76.02/bbl at 13:29 BST to $76.91/bbl at 14:52 BST and softened to $76.60/bbl at 17:10 BST (time of writing). The UK is withdrawing embassy staff from Iran as a precaution amid ongoing exchanges of fire between Israel and Iran, including new Iranian strikes and Israeli attacks on targets in Tehran. British, French, and German foreign ministers are meeting their Iranian counterparts in Geneva to help ease tensions. The Trump administration announced new sanctions targeting Iran and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis, citing efforts to disrupt the supply of sensitive machinery and illicit oil trading networks. ...

In this publication, we leverage Onyx's proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Jul'25 CP (Saudi Aramco) propane

In this publication, we leverage Onyx's proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Jul'25 Naphtha East/West (MOPJ - NWE Naphtha).

On Wednesday, JP Morgan said their estimated Brent fair value stood at $66/bbl, considering the low probability of the Strait of Hormuz entirely shutting down. The M1 Brent futures, however, rallied to $76/bbl this day and now stands at $78.65/bbl (at the time of writing on 19 Jun). While we also see little chance of a complete shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz...