Edge Updates
Dubai Market Report: No Celebrating…Yet
Despite limited flows since our last report on 03 Dec, there has finally been an introduction of some volatility in the M1 (Jan’26) Brent/Dubai contract as prices surged 38c d/d from -$0.66/bbl on 08 Dec to -$0.28/bbl on 09 Dec (time of writing). The overall Dubai market has continued to trade at extremely low volumes. However, in deferred Brent/Dubai, the Q2, Q3, and Q4'26 contracts appeared to have found a floor this week. Funds and refiners were on the buy-side of these deferred contracts in decent size, which also injected support in the front. Thus, the outright box structure has remained largely unchanged this week, with Jan/Feb rising from -$0.08/bbl on 02 Dec to -$0.04/bbl on 09 Dec. Dubai spreads have been quiet, with some selling seen in the Jan/Feb/Mar Dubai fly and the Dec/Jan spread. There has been some bank buy-side interest in the deferred boxes, though this has not been particularly aggressive. Combined exchange-traded open interest in the Jan'26 Brent/Dubai has eased from 55.4mb on 02 Dec to 55.3mb on 04 Dec; this sits more than 25% below the 5-year high of 74.7mb, signalling room for fresh longs. However, net positioning against Onyx turned negative on 05 Dec, as trade houses shifted to selling and refiners trimmed their length. Despite this flow, the entire Brent/Dubai curve has moved higher this week. However, we are in an environment where positioning is low in Brent/Dubai, and thus, will need sustained buy-side interest to maintain this week’s upward move. If no fresh buying comes in, it is likely that we will see the curve revert lower once again. To this point, the low speculative volume and the prolonged lack of any particular trend in Brent/Dubai suggest that a mean reversion is likely in the near term.
Dated Brent Report: All I Want For Christmas… Is 8-12 Dec
Christmas is just around the corner, and Dated bulls are making a last-minute bid to get on Santa's 'nice' list. Total have consistently been on the buy side of WTI Midland over the past week, and paper flows this week have been bullish so far, reigniting the bulls' optimism
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Edge Updates
Dubai Market Report: No Celebrating…Yet
Despite limited flows since our last report on 03 Dec, there has finally been an introduction of some volatility in the M1 (Jan’26) Brent/Dubai contract as prices surged 38c d/d from -$0.66/bbl on 08 Dec to -$0.28/bbl on 09 Dec (time of writing). The overall Dubai market has continued to trade at extremely low volumes. However, in deferred Brent/Dubai, the Q2, Q3, and Q4'26 contracts appeared to have found a floor this week. Funds and refiners were on the buy-side of these deferred contracts in decent size, which also injected support in the front. Thus, the outright box structure has remained largely unchanged this week, with Jan/Feb rising from -$0.08/bbl on 02 Dec to -$0.04/bbl on 09 Dec. Dubai spreads have been quiet, with some selling seen in the Jan/Feb/Mar Dubai fly and the Dec/Jan spread. There has been some bank buy-side interest in the deferred boxes, though this has not been particularly aggressive. Combined exchange-traded open interest in the Jan'26 Brent/Dubai has eased from 55.4mb on 02 Dec to 55.3mb on 04 Dec; this sits more than 25% below the 5-year high of 74.7mb, signalling room for fresh longs. However, net positioning against Onyx turned negative on 05 Dec, as trade houses shifted to selling and refiners trimmed their length. Despite this flow, the entire Brent/Dubai curve has moved higher this week. However, we are in an environment where positioning is low in Brent/Dubai, and thus, will need sustained buy-side interest to maintain this week’s upward move. If no fresh buying comes in, it is likely that we will see the curve revert lower once again. To this point, the low speculative volume and the prolonged lack of any particular trend in Brent/Dubai suggest that a mean reversion is likely in the near term.
Dated Brent Report: All I Want For Christmas… Is 8-12 Dec
Christmas is just around the corner, and Dated bulls are making a last-minute bid to get on Santa's 'nice' list. Total have consistently been on the buy side of WTI Midland over the past week, and paper flows this week have been bullish so far, reigniting the bulls' optimism
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