test - Flux News
Dated v Brent:
Loading graph...

Edge Updates

Dubai Market Report: No Celebrating…Yet

Despite limited flows since our last report on 03 Dec, there has finally been an introduction of some volatility in the M1 (Jan’26) Brent/Dubai contract as prices surged 38c d/d from -$0.66/bbl on 08 Dec to -$0.28/bbl on 09 Dec (time of writing). The overall Dubai market has continued to trade at extremely low volumes. However, in deferred Brent/Dubai, the Q2, Q3, and Q4'26 contracts appeared to have found a floor this week. Funds and refiners were on the buy-side of these deferred contracts in decent size, which also injected support in the front. Thus, the outright box structure has remained largely unchanged this week, with Jan/Feb rising from -$0.08/bbl on 02 Dec to -$0.04/bbl on 09 Dec. Dubai spreads have been quiet, with some selling seen in the Jan/Feb/Mar Dubai fly and the Dec/Jan spread. There has been some bank buy-side interest in the deferred boxes, though this has not been particularly aggressive. Combined exchange-traded open interest in the Jan'26 Brent/Dubai has eased from 55.4mb on 02 Dec to 55.3mb on 04 Dec; this sits more than 25% below the 5-year high of 74.7mb, signalling room for fresh longs. However, net positioning against Onyx turned negative on 05 Dec, as trade houses shifted to selling and refiners trimmed their length. Despite this flow, the entire Brent/Dubai curve has moved higher this week. However, we are in an environment where positioning is low in Brent/Dubai, and thus, will need sustained buy-side interest to maintain this week’s upward move. If no fresh buying comes in, it is likely that we will see the curve revert lower once again. To this point, the low speculative volume and the prolonged lack of any particular trend in Brent/Dubai suggest that a mean reversion is likely in the near term.

Dated Brent Report: All I Want For Christmas… Is 8-12 Dec

Christmas is just around the corner, and Dated bulls are making a last-minute bid to get on Santa's 'nice' list. Total have consistently been on the buy side of WTI Midland over the past week, and paper flows this week have been bullish so far, reigniting the bulls' optimism

Brent v Dubai:
Loading graph...

Edge Updates

Dubai Market Report: No Celebrating…Yet

Despite limited flows since our last report on 03 Dec, there has finally been an introduction of some volatility in the M1 (Jan’26) Brent/Dubai contract as prices surged 38c d/d from -$0.66/bbl on 08 Dec to -$0.28/bbl on 09 Dec (time of writing). The overall Dubai market has continued to trade at extremely low volumes. However, in deferred Brent/Dubai, the Q2, Q3, and Q4'26 contracts appeared to have found a floor this week. Funds and refiners were on the buy-side of these deferred contracts in decent size, which also injected support in the front. Thus, the outright box structure has remained largely unchanged this week, with Jan/Feb rising from -$0.08/bbl on 02 Dec to -$0.04/bbl on 09 Dec. Dubai spreads have been quiet, with some selling seen in the Jan/Feb/Mar Dubai fly and the Dec/Jan spread. There has been some bank buy-side interest in the deferred boxes, though this has not been particularly aggressive. Combined exchange-traded open interest in the Jan'26 Brent/Dubai has eased from 55.4mb on 02 Dec to 55.3mb on 04 Dec; this sits more than 25% below the 5-year high of 74.7mb, signalling room for fresh longs. However, net positioning against Onyx turned negative on 05 Dec, as trade houses shifted to selling and refiners trimmed their length. Despite this flow, the entire Brent/Dubai curve has moved higher this week. However, we are in an environment where positioning is low in Brent/Dubai, and thus, will need sustained buy-side interest to maintain this week’s upward move. If no fresh buying comes in, it is likely that we will see the curve revert lower once again. To this point, the low speculative volume and the prolonged lack of any particular trend in Brent/Dubai suggest that a mean reversion is likely in the near term.

Dated Brent Report: All I Want For Christmas… Is 8-12 Dec

Christmas is just around the corner, and Dated bulls are making a last-minute bid to get on Santa's 'nice' list. Total have consistently been on the buy side of WTI Midland over the past week, and paper flows this week have been bullish so far, reigniting the bulls' optimism

Upcoming events

Most Popular

European Window: Brent Eases to $61.93/bbl

6h ago
The Feb’26 Brent futures contract eased from $62.78/bbl at 12:15 GMT to $61.93/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters reported that Russia's Syzran oil refinery (production 90kb/d in 2024) ceased processing on 05 December after being damaged by a Ukrainian drone attack. According to Reuters sources, drones damaged the plant’s CDU-6, which is expected to undergo repairs for about a month. Elsewhere, OxyVinyls, a subsidiary of Occidental Petroleum Corporation, has reported a fire at its La Porte, Texas, facility. The company stated that it was collaborating with local officials to address the situation and had received ...

Dubai Market Report: No Celebrating…Yet

6h ago
Despite limited flows since our last report on 03 Dec, there has finally been an introduction of some volatility in the M1 (Jan’26) Brent/Dubai contract as prices surged 38c d/d from -$0.66/bbl on 08 Dec to -$0.28/bbl on 09 Dec (time of writing). The overall Dubai market has continued to trade at extremely low volumes. However, in deferred Brent/Dubai, the Q2, Q3, and Q4'26 contracts appeared to have found a floor this week. Funds and refiners were on the buy-side of these deferred contracts in decent size, which also injected support in the front. Thus, the outright box structure has ...

Dated Brent Report: All I Want For Christmas… Is 8-12 Dec

7h ago
Christmas is just around the corner, and Dated bulls are making a last-minute bid to get on Santa's 'nice' list. Total have consistently been on the buy side of WTI Midland over the past week, and paper flows this week have been bullish so far, reigniting the bulls' optimism

European Window: Brent Trades Rangebound at $62.81/bbl

2d ago
The Feb’26 Brent futures contract has traded relatively rangebound this afternoon, between the $62.80/bbl and $63.00/bbl handles. Levels are at $62.81/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters reported that Iraq has halted all oil production at Lukoil’s West Qurna-2 oilfield (capacity 460kb/d), following a leak on an export pipeline. Elsewhere, Reuters also reported that Kazakhstan intends to supply 50kt of crude oil directly from the Kashagan field to China in December, via the Atasu-Alashankou pipeline. This marks the first since a Ukrainian drone attack damaged the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's (CPC) Black Sea terminal. The CPC reportedly ...

Brent Forecast: 8th December 2025

2d ago
View: Bearish Target Price: $61-63/bb Critical Resistance Ahead The M1 Brent futures contract remains rangebound between $62 and $63/bbl, with a strong resistance level at the 50-day moving average (blue line on the chart below). Despite the bullish optics of a prolonged war between Ukraine and Russia, momentum has yet to be strong enough to break above the 50-day MA successfully. We expect this trend to continue this week and anticipate prices to slip lower, targeting $61-63/bbl as our price target. G7 countries mull over a full maritime services ban for Russian exports While the oil market was bracing for ...

Refinery Margins Report

2d ago
In the week ending 05 December, Refinery Margins fell across all regions: Asian M1 Margins down to $10.77/bbl (-$0.71/bbl w/w), European M1 Margins down to $8.70/bbl (-$0.73/bbl w/w), and US Margins down to $14.73/bbl (-$0.46/bbl w/w). Asian margins were driven down by Sing Gasoil cracks, which fell by -$0.89/bbl w/w. The 380 Crack also fell on the week by -$0.52/bbl. Dubai Cracks also saw weakness, with Gasoil Dubai Cracks falling by -$3.42/bbl. In Europe Gasoil crack was also the biggest mover, falling by -$1.42/bbl w/w, while 3.5 Barges Cracks also weakened, falling by -$1.16/bbl.

European Window: Brent Eases to $63.60/bbl

5d ago
The Feb’26 Brent futures contract failed to maintain strength above the $64.00/bbl handle this afternoon, easing from $64.08/bbl at 15:30 GMT to $63.60/bbl at 16:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, local Russian emergency centres have reported a fire at Russia's Azov Sea port of Temryuk, due to a Ukrainian drone attack. The fire occurred at the Maktren-Nafta LPG transhipment terminal, which handles LPG exports from Russian and Kazakh producers. According to Reuters, between January and October 2025, the terminal handled roughly 220kt of LPG. Elsewhere, according to The Officials sources, Kuwait’s Al Zour refinery will be in maintenance ...

COT Deep Dive – C3 LST

5d ago
In this edition, we take a look at the Jan'26 C3 LST.

Events

Dec 10, 2025
08:00 UTC+0:00
Fujairah Inventories
in 7h
Fujairah Inventories
in 7h
21:30 UTC+0:00
API Stats Release
in 21h
Dec 11, 2025
12:00 UTC+0:00
Dec25 ICE Gasoil Expiry
in 2d
13:00 UTC+0:00
OPEC OMR
in 2d
OPEC OMR
in 2d
15:15 UTC+0:00
ARA Product Inventories
in 2d
ARA Product Inventories
in 2d
Dec 17, 2025
08:00 UTC+0:00
Fujairah Inventories
in 8d
Fujairah Inventories
in 8d
21:30 UTC+0:00
API Stats Release
in 8d
Dec 18, 2025
15:15 UTC+0:00
ARA Product Inventories
in 9d
Dec 19, 2025
19:30 UTC+0:00
Jan26 WTI Expiry
in 10d
Dec 24, 2025
08:00 UTC+0:00
Fujairah Inventories
in 15d
Fujairah Inventories
in 15d
21:30 UTC+0:00
API Stats Release
in 15d
Contact Us
First
Last
Flux News
Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies so that we can provide you with the best user experience possible. Cookie information is stored in your browser and performs functions such as recognising you when you return to our website and helping our team to understand which sections of the website you find most interesting and useful.