Front-month Brent futures really did go from hanging on to the $70/bbl handle for dear life to soaring up to $74/bbl all in the same month. Before we bid farewell to the big box of uncertainty that March has been for oil prices, April starts with America’s “liberation day”, i.e., what President Trump has labelled his big tariff distribution day. A 25% tax on cars and car parts appears on the menu, with Trump promising it would lead to “tremendous growth” for the US. The world isn’t too convinced due to the danger this poses to a fully blown trade war, the threat which has dampened US customer confidence, increased inflation expectations, and led to the IMF forecasting a slowdown in the US, albeit ruling out a recession. Before we begin panicking, nothing can be said for sure – we might see a mysterious deal push all these tariffs into the distant future. Speaking of deals, the US is also dealing with an increasingly fragile ceasefire in the Black Sea. After reportedly agreeing to a maritime truce, Russia demanded the removal of sanctions on some of its banks, providing them access to Swift. This request was swiftly (sorry) rejected by Ukraine and the EU. It’s a bit unclear who is wielding the carrot and who is wielding the stick in this deal anymore, and it will be interesting to see what the US decides to do about this – maybe we’ll find out in a Signal chat next week.
