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The Aug’25 Brent futures contract slightly fell off to $67.13/bbl before rallying to $67.95/bbl at 16:35 BST. Prices have since softened to $67.47/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, US-China trade talks continue in London, President Trump described the discussions as positive, fuelling market confidence. Irving Oil has begun a $100 million upgrade of the fluid catalytic cracking unit at its St. John refinery in New Brunswick, Canada’s largest refinery with a capacity of 320kb/d. The project aims to enhance the facility’s ability to produce gasoline and diesel, and is expected to create 675 construction jobs. New permitting guidelines for wastewater disposal wells in Texas are expected to raise costs for oil producers. The rules aim to limit injection pressures and volumes to prevent produced water from contaminating freshwater sources, particularly in the Permian Basin. These changes could increase water disposal costs by 20–30% in parts of the Delaware sub-basin, where water-to-oil ratios are high and seismic activity has grown due to heavy injection volumes. In other news, ADNOC Gas has approved a $5B investment for the first phase of its Rich Gas Development Project, aiming to expand processing capacity and efficiency at its onshore and offshore facilities. Contracts were awarded to UK firms Wood Group, Petrofac, and Kent. Finally the front-month Aug/Sep and 6-monht Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $0.80/bbl and $2.31/bbl respectively.
Well, the bull run did happen, and it was the perfect storm. Peak summer demand. Backwardated prompt spreads. Refineries are back from maintenance. Gold rush. The Dated structure saw a good rally with Total bidding the physical, and the June and July DFLs surpassed $1/bbl, and the bulls were rewarded for their patience, with the recent run likely funding their summer holidays. The rally was well telegraphed, but we do not think the rally has a further leg up, and hold a cautiously bearish view in the short term as the bulls fade out. The 16-20 Jun week is implied at nearly $1/bbl in the physical, but the bulls are in no rush, with the market seemingly happy with the $0.80/bbl level in the physical differential. Despite continued bids from Total and friends, we see this as an attempt to support the physical, rather than to push it higher. Whilst strong buying in the paper was seen on 6 June, it was not by the players with the ability to move the physical. With prompt weeks implying higher than the physical, rolls could roll down and see selling into pricing.
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract fell to $66.32/bbl at 14:36 BST before rallying to $67.06/bbl. Prices have since softened to $66.63/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing). In the news, OPEC’s oil output rose by 150 kb/d in May, reaching 26.75 mb/d, according to a Reuters survey. The rise was limited as Iraq cut production to compensate for earlier overproduction. Saudi Arabia saw the largest increase at 130 kb/d, still 100kb/d below its quota. Overall, the five OPEC nations involved in the May agreement raised output by 180 kb/d, below the planned 310kb/d due to offsetting compensation cuts. In other news, California’s fuel imports surged to 279 kb/d in May, the highest since 2021, as refinery outages and declining in-state capacity drove the state to rely more heavily on imports, especially from Asia and atypical sources like the Bahamas and India. Imports from South Korea and other Asian countries made up nearly 70% of May volumes, while Bahamas shipments hit a record 38kb/d. Refinery closures and supply crunches are shifting California toward long-term import dependency, raising fuel costs. Kenya plans to begin commercial crude oil production and exports in 2026, according to Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi. This development hinges on the finalization of Gulf Energy Ltd’s acquisition of Tullow Oil’s assets in the country, including the long-stalled South Lokichar Basin project. The field is expected to produce between 60kb/d and 100kb/d, with an estimated 560 mb recoverable over a 25-year period. The project could position Kenya as a new oil exporter and boost its standing in the global energy market. Finally the front-month Aug/Sep spread is at $0.73/bbl and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spread is at $1.89/bbl.
Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.
