Jun’25 Brent futures collapsed in the week ending 08 April, falling by over $10 and closing at a low of $61.55/bbl, its lowest level in four years. Prices capitulated as market participants reacted to the tit-for-tat tariff escalation in the trade war between the US and China. The bearish sentiment was reinforced by OPEC+ accelerating its oil output hikes, amounting to 411kb/d in May. In line with this, Onyx’s weekly CFTC COT predictor forecasts money managers to reduce their net length across Brent, Gasoil, and RBOB futures, by trimming their length and adding shorts. Meanwhile, we anticipate a risk-on week for physical players (producer/merchants).
