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Weekly Oil Inventories Report
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Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent at $67.25/bbl
The Aug’25 Brent crude futures reached a daily low of $66.95/bbl at 08:45 BST before it was more supported to $67.25/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). The European Commission is planning to propose a fresh set of sanctions against Russia, which includes a reduction in the oil price cap and a prohibition on using the Nord Stream infrastructure, according to a report by the Financial Times. The proposed sanctions package will see the current oil price cap, from $60/bbl, to $45/bbl. Nigeria and Saudi Aramco are struggling to reach an agreement on a record $5 billion oil-backed loan after a recent decline in crude prices sparked concern among banks that were expected to back the deal, four sources told Reuters. The facility would be Nigeria’s largest oil-backed loan to date and Saudi Arabia’s first participation of this scale in the country, although the decline in oil price could shrink the size of the deal, the sources said. Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu, two of the sources said, first broached the loan in November when he met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh at the Saudi-African Summit. Iraq’s total oil exports to Greece surpassed $5 billion in 2024. Iraq supplied almost nine million tons of crude oil to Greece, valued at $5.41 billion, with a 21% annual growth rate between 2020-24, Shafaq News reported. According to the figures, Iraq exported 8.2 million mt of crude oil to Greece, totalling $4.59 billion. It also exported 1.52 million mt of oil derivatives, totalling $812 million. Japanese refinery, Taiyo Oil, announced that it has purchased its first batch of Sakhalin Blend crude oil from Russia in over two years. Finally, the front (Aug/Sep) and 6-month (Aug/Feb) Brent futures spreads are at $0.81/bbl and $2.26/bbl, respectively.
The Officials: Steady as she goes!
It’s allocation day! And no huge surprises in the July allocations; the Saudis held pretty steady from their June provision to send 47 mil bbl to Chinese refiners in July. Within that, there was some chopping and changing as Unipec and PetroChina got slightly larger allotments, while Rongsheng lost 1 mil bbl – but the ‘teapot’ (bigger than most global refineries) by far the largest share! Allocations for May hit a record since the start of The Officials at 48 mil bbl – the highest since July 2024 allocations – while the June and July allocations occupy second and third spots, respectively.
The Officials: 67 is teasing us!
Flat price keeps going! $67 was a tempting target as Brent climbed this morning, stretching out its fingers to reach that elusive level. It brushed $67 at 13:45 BST and another during the window, but failed to gain a toehold and came to the European close at $66.92/bbl. We’ve been bullish for a few weeks now and the market’s finally waking up to the fact OPEC quota hikes don’t equate to supply increases.
Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.
