Onyx Research

Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.

CFTC Predictor: Bulls rise in crude

In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday.

CFTC Weekly cover

The M1 Brent futures contract saw support climb towards the end of the week ending 10 June. Price action moved up from a low of $64.50/bbl on 3 Jun to a high of nearly $68/bbl on 10 Jun, its highest level since 23 Apr. We eventually saw the M1 futures contract breach past the $68/bbl handle on 11 Jun and climb to nearly $70/bbl, where it met resistance and eased to $68.90/bbl at the time of writing on 12 Jun. In oil products, the M1 RBOB gasoline crack and the M1 ICE LS gasoil crack moved relatively sideways this week, with the RBOB crack continuing to see sell-side interest above the $20/bbl handle. This week’s support for Brent futures emerged alongside ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China in London. Moreover, tensions rose between the US and Iran following an IAEA report claiming that Iran has not complied with its commitment to international nuclear safeguards. Still, while US crude oil inventories reported a 4.3mb draw in the week ending 30 May (announced on 4 Jun), gasoline and distillate fuel oil stocks saw significant builds of 5.2mb and 4.2mb, respectively, pressuring prices. We also saw product builds the following week, albeit to a relatively smaller degree. However, changes to positioning on the back of this will only be reflected in 20 June’s CFTC report.

In line with these price movements, Onyx’s weekly CFTC COT predictor forecasts that money managers will add to their net length in Brent futures while trimming long positions and adding to shorts in ICE LS gasoil futures and the US RBOB gasoline futures. We predict muted shifts in speculative RBOB positioning as the market remains relatively risk-off.

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.