In the week ending 29 Jul, the M1 (Sep’25) Brent futures contract broke above the critical $70/bbl barrier, briefly surpassing the $73/bbl handle on 29 Jul, where it met resistance. Prices ultimately revisited the $73/bbl level, hitting $73.65/bbl on 30 Jul before easing slightly to $73.30/bbl at the time of writing on 31 Jul. Meanwhile, the M1 (Aug’25) RBOB futures flat price contract initially noted weakness, with price action declining from $2.15/gal on 21 Jul to a low of $2.09/gal on 25 Jul. However, prices ultimately rallied to $2.23/gal on 29 Jul and stand above $2.26/gal at the time of writing. Nevertheless, the M1 RBOB futures crack (Sep’25) was rangebound around $13-13.50/bbl throughout the week ending 29 Jul amid a stronger Brent futures.
Finally, sentiment has been more subdued with the M1 (Aug’25) ICE LS gasoil, which has consolidated around $700-720 all week, closing at $720/mt on 29 Jul, and now sits at $713/mt. US middle distillates stocks saw a third consecutive build in inventories in the week ending 25 Jul amid a rise in refinery yield to 30.8% on strong diesel cracks. The M1 ICE LS gasoil crack (Sep’25) weakened from $25.65/bbl on 22 Jul to $23.10/bbl on 29 Jul and now stands at $22/bbl.
In line with this positioning change, Onyx’s CFTC predicting model forecasts Brent’s net long positioning to rise in the week ending 29 Jul, although producers/merchants are forecast to be more risk-off. Interestingly, in the products, we forecast a rise in net long positioning in ICE gasoil alongside continued refiner hedging through an increase of prod/merc shorts. However, we predict an exodus of long risk in RBOB futures.
Further information on other categories and contracts can be found in the report.
