In the week ending 5 Aug, the M1 (Oct’25) Brent futures contract initially ticked up above the $70/bbl handle, but met resistance in the high $73/bbl region and subsequently eased to $67.67/bbl at the close on 5 Aug. The futures contract softened further into the week and sits at $66.80/bbl at the time of writing on 7 Aug. In the products, a similar weakness was seen in the M1 (Sep’25) ICE gasoil futures contract, which fell from $720/mt on 30 Jul to $665/mt on 5 Aug, while the Oct’25 crack has moved sideways through this week. In RBOB, the Sep’25 futures fell from $2.20/gal on 30 Jul to $2.08/gal on 5 Aug, but have seen more support here. The Oct’25 RBBR has seen more support into August, ticking up from below $12/bbl on 1 Aug to $12.20/bbl on 5 Aug, and continuing to rise to $12.80/bbl at the time of writing on 7 Aug.
In line with these price movements, Flux Insight’s CFTC Predictor anticipates an unwinding of long managed-by-money positioning and rise in speculative shorts in ICE Brent futures and ICE gasoil futures in the week ending 5 Aug. Meanwhile, RBOB futures are expected to see muted changes in speculative long positioning alongside an exodus of shorts. Producers/merchants are expected to be risk-off this week.
Further detailed information on other categories and contracts can be found in the report.
