In the week ending 12 Aug, the M1 (Oct’25) Brent futures contract was under pressure, dropping from opening at $68.76/bl on 05 Aug to pass below $66.00/bbl, although this level acted as support from 08-12 Aug. In the products, a slightly weaker pressure was seen in the M1 (Sep’25) ICE gasoil futures contract, which dropped from $683/mt to $655/mt over the same time frame. The contract broke through the 100-day moving average but has failed to pass this level in the days following meaningfully. The Oct’25 crack has moved sideways through this week, reaching above $22.50/bbl but dropping to close to the level at the start of the week, at $21.90/bbl on 12 Aug. The RBOB Sep’25 contract has seen support at the 100-day moving average over the week, seeing quite a flat net change as it slumped from $2.091/gal on 06 Aug to $2.071/gal on 12 Aug’s close. There was better support in the crack, with the Oct crack rising from seeing slightly better support at the 100-day moving average at $12.43/bbl on 05 Aug to close just below $13.00/bbl on 12 Aug.
In line with these quite weak outright price movements, Flux Insight’s CFTC Predictor anticipates an unwinding of long managed-by-money positioning and a rise in speculative length in ICE Brent futures and RBOB futures in the week ending 12 Aug. On the other hand, ICE gasoil futures are expected to see more bullish changes in speculative long positioning alongside a removal of shorts. Producers/merchants are expected to be risk-on in Brent and risk-off in products this week.
Further detailed information on other categories and contracts can be found in the report.
