The Oct’25 Brent futures contract has been rangebound between $66.90/bbl and $67.30/bbl this morning, now sitting at $67.08/bbl at the time of writing (12:00 BST). US special envoy Steve Witcoff said that he will meet Ukrainian representatives in New York this week and that the US is in talks with Russia regarding ending the war in Ukraine. The market’s focus today will shift to EIA stats on crude and refined fuel oil inventories in the US (in the week ending 22 Aug), due to be announced at 15:30 BST this afternoon. The American Petroleum Institute’s (API) estimate showed a 0.974mb decline in US crude, alongside draws of 2.06mb in gasoline and 1.488mb in distillate fuel oil inventories. In other news, a Reuters exclusive reported that Russia revised up its crude oil export plan from Western ports by 200kb/d in August after Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted refinery operations, freeing up more crude for shipment. In the UK, energy regulator Ofgem has announced a 2% increase in the price cap on gas and electricity prices from October 2025, above analyst expectations. Finally, at the time of writing, the front (Oct/Nov’25) and six-month (Oct/Apr’26) Brent futures spreads stand at $0.55/bbl and $1.55/bbl, respectively.
