Nov’25 Brent futures reached $67.92/bbl at 13.55 BST but softened to $67.50/bbl at 17.23 BST (time of writing). EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said secondary sanctions and energy-related measures would be the most effective tools to weaken Moscow’s ability to wage war in Ukraine. The bloc is preparing its 19th sanctions package, which may target Russia’s energy, financial sectors, and alleged child abductions, while also considering the use of an anti-circumvention tool to stop third countries from helping Russia evade restrictions. At the same time, EU officials discussed long-term security guarantees for Ukraine, including shifting training missions inside the country and supporting its defence industry, while allies continue debating post-war troop deployments. ExxonMobil predicts North American oil production will peak in the 2030s as US hard-to-recover reserves deplete, though technological advances are expected to sustain output. Improved efficiency and productivity could boost production by 0.5 mb/d by 2050, while a lack of innovation may cause a decline of 2.5 mb/d. Meanwhile, regulatory changes in Russia may pave the way for ExxonMobil’s possible return to the Sakhalin-1 project and the Russian market. The EIA reported today that US crude production was at a record 13.580 mb/d in June vs 13.447mb/d in May (revised down from 13.488mb/d. Ahead of elections, Guyana’s opposition candidates vow to renegotiate Exxon’s 2016 oil contract to ease inflation and boost social programs, while President Irfaan Ali resists changes. Rival Aubrey Norton plans broader talks, and outsider Azruddin Mohamed proposes ring-fencing Exxon’s costs. Exxon, investing $55 billion in the Stabroek block, expects output to hit 1.7mb/d by 2030, lifting state revenue from $2.5Bn in 2025 to $10Bn. Finally, the front (Nov/Dec) and 6-month (Nov/May) Brent futures spreads are at $0.56/bbl and $1.39/bbl, respectively.
