Flux Insight’s CTA positioning model highlights net short CTA positioning across the crude and gasoline benchmarks, while net positions in middle distillates benchmarks (gasoil and heating oil) flipped long. With the z-score of gasoil reaching 45 on 5 Sep, the saturation of long positions raises the likelihood of a mean reversion. Positions in RBOB futures saw the most dramatic decline, falling from +6k to -16k lots over the week. To highlight this, its z-score fell from +40 to -2 over the week, indicating a rapid normalisation. WTI positioning remains the most short, at -21k lots. In contrast, ICE gasoil positioning is the most bullish, at +4k lots.
Overall positioning across the benchmarks is around -50k lots, although at 2-week lows, they remain considerably higher than the lows seen in April-May.
Click below to explore our weekly CFTC COT reports, including a new report detailing historical Onyx COT data for key swap contracts.
