The Nov’25 Brent futures contract has been fairly rangebound between $67 and $67.50/bbl this morning, sitting at $67.07/bbl at the time of writing (11:15 BST). In its Oil Market Report for September 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said it expects world oil supply to rise more rapidly than expected in 2025 as OPEC+ Members increase output further while non-OPEC supplies also increase. The IEA expects world oil supply to rise by 2.7mb/d in 2025 (prev forecast: +2.5mb/d) and by 2.1mb/d in 2026. The IEA further expects oil demand to lie well below supply in both years, with supply expected to exceed demand by about 3.3mb/d in 2026. The IEA’s previous forecast implied a 2026 surplus of around 3mb/d. Still, the group has stressed that market balances could be altered by a “number of potential twists and turns ahead – including geopolitical tensions, trade policies and additional sanctions on Russia and Iran”. In other news, Saudi Aramco has reportedly asked Asian buyers to lift more crude in October amid growing supply in the Kingdom. This may have led to the delay in Saudi Arabian crude oil allocations for October, as per a Reuters report. Meanwhile, in Japan, the corporate goods price index (CGPI) increased by 2.7% in the year-to-August, up from a revised 2.5% increase in July. Food and beverage prices increased by 5% y/y in August (prev: +4.7% y/y), although electricity, gas and water bills fell 2.9% y/y in August due to government subsidies to cap utility prices. Finally, at the time of writing, the front spread (Nov/Dec’25) and the six-month (Nov/May’26) Brent futures spreads stand at $0.36/bbl and $1.07/bbl, respectively.
