This morning, the Nov’25 Brent Futures contract has a Doji daily candle reflecting little net change. The contract reached $67.53/bbl at 07.10 BST but softened to $67.14/bbl at 11.37 BST (time of writing). US and Chinese officials, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng, are set to hold their second day of trade talks today. The talks come amid tensions over China’s purchase of Russian oil, with Donald Trump posting on Truth over the weekend that “China has a strong control, and even grip, over Russia, and these powerful Tariffs will break that grip”. Beijing pushed back, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi warning sanctions would “complicate” the Ukraine conflict. The US president, in this post on his Truth Social platform on Saturday, said NATO’s commitment to winning the war “has been far less than 100%” and the purchase of Russian oil by some members is “shocking”. China’s Commerce Ministry launched two new probes into the US chip sector after Washington blacklisted 23 more Chinese entities. Ukraine said it struck the Kirishi oil refinery in Russia’s Leningrad region, sparking explosions and a fire at one of the country’s largest refineries that supplies fuel to the Russian army. The Surgutneftegas-operated plant, producing about 355,000 barrels per day, is among Russia’s top three refineries and was hit amid a wave of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Nayara Energy, majority-owned by Rosneft, has sought Indian government help to secure catalysts and heavy equipment for a February shutdown of its 400 kb/d Vadinar refinery, as EU sanctions restrict access to US and European suppliers. Now reliant solely on Russian crude, the refiner faces difficulties sourcing key items like compressors, pumps, and catalysts, though it may turn to Russian, Chinese, or domestic alternatives. Finally, the front-month Nov/Dec and the 6-month Nov/May spreads are at $0.41/bbl and $1.16/bbl, respectively.
