The front-month (Nov’25) Brent futures contract traded around the $67/bbl handle this afternoon, climbing from $67/bbl at noon today to a peak of $67.80/bbl at 15:53 BST, where it met resistance before stabilising around $67.30/bbl at 17:17 BST (time of writing). We continue to see a floor in oil prices amid Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, with Russia reporting an attack with at least 361 drones on Sunday, sparking a fire at the Kirishi oil refinery in Northwest Russia. The refinery processes about 355kb/d of crude oil, 6.4% of Russia’s total capacity. In other news, as Chinese and US officials meet in Spain to try to resolve trade disputes, China’s commerce ministry has opposed Washington’s request that the Group of Seven and NATO countries impose secondary tariffs on Chinese imports over its purchases of Russian oil, calling it “a classic example of unilateral bullying and economic coercion”. Meanwhile, oil prices may have hit a ceiling amid softer economic data from China, with retail sales at 3.4% y/y in August (prev: 3.7%) and industrial production softening to 5.2% y/y in August (prev: 5.7%). Further clarity in price is likely to come after the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at its FOMC meeting on 16-17 Sep, where it is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate. Lower borrowing costs tend to support risk assets such as oil. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Nov/Dec’25) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads stand at $0.40/bbl and $1.22/bbl, respectively.
