Crude prices pulled back initially as resumed Kurdistan exports reinforced bearish prices early during the week ending 23 Sep. However, renewed tensions between Russia and Ukraine pushed prices upward amid ongoing drone attacks on Russian refineries as well as US President Trump warning of tariffs if Moscow refuses peace with Ukraine.
In the week ending 23 Sep, M1 Brent futures prices lifted, reaching $68.62/bbl before dropping to $66.12/bbl on 22 Sep and rallying to $66.18/bbl at the week’s close. Prices rallied further in the following week, breaking $70/bbl on 26 Sep, their highest level since the start of August. Open interest saw a third consecutive increase this week, climbing 0.48% to 2,988mb despite de-risking by producers/merchants and money managers. Open interest currently sits 10% above the 2020-24 maximum, highlighting an oversaturation of positions, which could make it challenging to add fresh longs.
M1 WTI futures peaked at $64.71/bbl in the week ending 23 Sep with a low of $62.09/bbl seen on 22 Sep.The following week saw increased bullish sentiment, with WTI futures reaching $66.82/bbl on 26 Sep. Open interest in WTI futures sat at 1.936mb in the week ending 23 Sep (-1.32% w/w), around -23% above the 5-year average.
