Overview
Gasoline Summary
The gasoline complex saw cracks initially correct lower before finding renewed strength at the end of last week, following the news from Dangote. On 28 Sep, Nigeria’s oil workers’ union, PENGASSAN, has ordered members to cut crude and gas supply to Dangote, escalating a labour dispute after hundreds of workers were dismissed. The Oct’25 EBOB crack saw an incredibly bullish reaction, rising to $16.50/bbl, nearly the highest level reached this year for the M1 crack. Dangote issues will likely pull more gasoline exports towards the WAF region, compounding supply tightness concerns from Ukrainian drone attacks and Europe’s loss of refinery capacity this year.
Naphtha Summary
The naphtha market weakened at the end of last week, but saw more support into this week. NWE cracks slid from a high of above -$3/bbl on 22 Sep to -$4.27/bbl on 26 Sep but climbed to -$3.70/bbl at the time of writing on 29 Sep. Shorts are now out of the money on their Nov’25 NWE crack positions, which may encourage new selling. Moreover, we may see speculative players roll their Oct’25 NWE crack shorts to Nov’25 ahead of the new month, which may further pressure the contract in the near-term. On the technical side, prices are meeting resistance at the Ichimoku cloud, which may cap gains in the near term. Naphtha stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub climbed a marginal 0.3% in the week ending 25 Sep to 10.33mb, as per Insights Global data (formerly PJK International).
