Morning Macro Wednesday 10 October 2025
Precious metals are all trading down – except silver! With a steep move shown in Figure 1, beware of a correction coming soon once logistical tightness unwinds. ETFs added 621,684 troy ounces of silver to their holdings in the last trading session. The one-month silver lease rate jumped to an all-time high of 35%. That compares with close to or below zero in the years prior to 2025. That’s tightness in the physical, giving whiffs of the LME gold squeeze earlier this year
While silver breaks above $50, gold fell from its all-time high and is now well below the $4000 mark. Gold has now gained 52% YTD and the selloff was likely due to stops being triggered after exceeding the $4k mark and now has broken below its trend line (Figure 2, TradingView). Gold-backed ETFs trimmed 55,669 ounces from holdings in the latest session, about $221 million at spot prices, bringing net purchases this year to 14 million ounces, according to bbg. Total ETF holdings are up 17% in 2025 to 97.4 million ounces. Despite a 52% year-to-date surge to $3,976.86 an ounce, gold slipped 1.6% in the latest session.
Senate Republicans are weighing the cancellation of next week’s recess if the current stalemate continues, according to a person familiar with the discussions. Meanwhile, some House Republicans are questioning Speaker Mike Johnson’s decision to keep the chamber out of session during the impasse, highlighting growing frustration within the party. The BLS is working to get data out for the CPI report due to be released Wednesday 15 October. Polymarket is pricing a 92% chance the shutdown lasts to 15 October or later!
Japan’s cost pressures remain sticky! Producer prices rose 2.7% y/y in September, matching August’s pace but exceeding forecasts of 2.5%. Gains were broad-based, with stronger increases in non-ferrous metals (9.6%) and food and beverages (4.7%), offsetting weaker momentum in transport equipment and machinery. Prices rose 0.3% m/m, reversing August’s 0.2% fall and beating expectations. Overall, the data reinforce the view Japan’s upstream inflation is still running hotter than markets, and the BoJ can’t fully relax.
AMD continues to rally, up to record high yesterday, now up nearly 45% from open of October trading! More broadly, equities continue to hit record highs, with the S&P 500 setting new intraday ATH for 3 consecutive sessions.
Argentine markets rallied after the US stepped in with a $20 billion financial rescue package, including peso purchases and a currency swap aimed at stabilizing the economy ahead of midterm elections. The move marks a rare US intervention in foreign exchange markets and underscores Washington’s concern over Argentina’s recent currency slide.
Data today: Michigan Consumer sentiment
