Overview
Gasoline Summary
The gasoline complex saw a resurgence of strength over the week, driven mainly by higher cracks, with the strength focused in Asia. The Nov’25 92 crack rallied by over $1 from $9.60 to $10.80/bbl, while the East/West narrowed towards -$1/bbl. The rally was partly driven by the Pengerang refinery CDU outage and supply tightness concerns out of Indonesia. Reflecting the prompt tightness, the Nov/Dec’25 92 spread rallied from $1.15 to $1.50/bbl. However, net positions in Nov/Dec have declined slightly since 8 Oct.
Naphtha Summary
It has been another quiet week in naphtha. The Nov’25 NWE naphtha crack has been fairly rangebound this week, though it climbed to a high of -$3.70/bbl on 13 Oct before easing to -$4.15/bbl at the time of writing. Looking at Flux Insight’s 90-day entry-level assessments, shorts are in the money while longs are exactly on the money, leaving the latter vulnerable to stop-outs in the event of a bearish catalyst. This comes amid a rise in ARA naphtha stocks by 19.1% to 542,000 mt in the week ending 9 Oct – as per Insights Global (formerly PJK International). At the time of writing, 13 Oct’s price action has printed a bearish Marubozu candle, signalling the rising bearish conviction in this market. Moreover, this candle also engulfed the previous day’s bullish candle, adding to the weakness.
