Flat Price
The Dec’25 Brent futures contract fell this afternoon, reaching $61.73/bbl at 13:45 BST before falling to $60.37/bbl at 15:00 BST. Prices found support at this level, recovering to $61.35/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Reuters has reported that Chevron and Shell have cut oil and gas exports from a Kazakh field after a Ukrainian drone strike damaged a supporting gas plant in the Orenburg region of Russia. This development makes this the first Ukrainian strike to impact Western oil operations. In other news, LSEG data shows that Russia’s Russneft has shipped its first oil cargo to the new Kulevi oil refinery in Georgia (initial capacity 24kb/d), as part of its attempts to diversity exports amidst Western sanctions. In Spain, gas grid operator Enagas has reported a 37% increase in gas demand between January and September, following a severe blackout in late April. According to Enagas, Spain’s total gas demand has been up 6.6% y/y. In Hungary, MOL oil and gas company reported a fire at its Danube refinery (capacity 165kb/d); no injuries occurred and disrupted crude units have already been gradually restarted. The company is unsure of the extent of damages and is set to begin assessing over the next 24 hours. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.24/bbl and $0.03/bbl, respectively.
Crude
This afternoon we slowly drifted lower, with Nov Brent/Dubai trading down from -$0.34/bbl to -$0.38/bbl. There was some middle eastern physical hedging in the Nov Brent/Dubai, selling -$0.34/bbl to -$0.35/bbl for 740kb. There was a major bidding the Dec Brent/Dubai, which traded -$0.24/bbl, before moving lower once the buying was done, finishing the afternoon at -$0.29/bbl. There was refiner and trade buying of the Dubai spreads, with Nov/Dec trading up from $0.12/bbl to $0.18/bbl.
More bid the afternoon in Dated with Nov trading back up to $0.35/bbl and Dec up to $0.14/bbl. Pre window we saw buying of 21-27 Oct vs 29-4 Nov and selling of 23 vs 30 Oct, both at -$0.18/bbl. We also saw continued 3-7 Nov vs Cal Nov buy side interest, as well as buying of 6-7 Nov vs 13-14 Nov at $0.12/bbl. A major was also selling 2-8 Dec vs Cal Dec at $0.07/bbl.
In the physical window, we saw a trade offering a midland cargo whilst lifting 2 midland cargos in the following week at $1.20/bbl. A major also sold a Brent cargo to a trade, implying the physical diff down to around -35c and marking 16 straight sessions of decline for the diff. Another major had a Forties cargo lifted. In the paper window, 3-7 Nov CFDs traded up to $0.40/bbl, 10-14 Nov CFDs up to $0.34/bbl and 27-31 Oct CFDs traded up to $0.18/bbl. Post window, we continued to see buying out of 3-7 with 3-7 Nov 1w trading at $0.17/bbl and 3-7 2w bid at $0.30/bbl. 17-21 Nov vs 5-12 Dec also traded at $0.10/bbl in smalls.
Fuel Oil
This afternoon in VLSFO, front Euro crack saw buying at the beginning of the afternoon, traded to the highs of $1.70/bbl. Structure in Euro saw little interests, but Nov/Dec was supported at -$0.75/mt. As the afternoon progressed, we saw sell side interests in both front crack, with front Sing crack trading down to $6.05/bbl and front Euro crack traded down to $1.50/bbl. But this did not move structure down both curves, with front Sing spread traded at -$2.75/mt the whole afternoon and front euro spread at -$0.75/mt.
In HSFO, Q1 barge crack saw sell side interests at -$5.45/bbl which pressured the front barge crack down to -$3.30/bbl. As a result, front barge structure also traded down to $8.75/mt. In 380, structure was relatively stable in the afternoon with Nov/Dec traded at -$0.75/mt. Front 380 E/W was a touch stronger traded up to -$2.75/mt post window.
Distillates
This afternoon in distillates, prompt Sing gasoil spreads were mixed, with Nov/Dec moving up to $1.67/bbl, while Dec/Jan weakened from $0.90/bbl to $0.88/bbl before turning better bid and being lifted at $0.93/bbl. The E/W strengthened initially, bidding up to -$20/mt before turning better offered and being hit at -$21.50/mt on screen post-window. Nov regrade traded down to $0.50/bbl, while Nov/Dec kero was rangebound between $1.60/bbl and $1.61/bbl.
Prompt ICE gasoil spreads weakened initially, with Nov/Jan moving down to $16/mt before firming to $17.50/mt post-window, while the Dec crack dipped to $23.50/bbl before recovering to $23.80/bbl. European jet diffs rallied, with Nov rising to $56.50/mt before turning better offered and easing to $55.50/mt, while Q1 traded up to $50/mt. Heating oil spreads were rangebound, while HOGOs sold off, with the Nov HOGO falling from 14.6c/gal down to 14.2c/gal.
Gasoline
This afternoon in gasoline, MOC was well offered with flat price trading at $622.75/mt end of window. RBBRs came off mid-afternoon, dropping around 40c. The arb traded up to -60c/gal and then came off again trading back down at -$1/gal. Nov cracks weakened from this morning, now trading at $13.75/bbl. Front spreads had interest both sides and stayed stable, trading at $22.50/bbl. E/W was offered and further dropped to $1.90/bbl. 92 cracks came off in the afternoon trading $11.75/bbl end of window, while spreads weakened further to $1.54/bbl.
Naphtha
This afternoon in naphtha, flat price traded end window at $503.25/mt with MOC better bid. Naphtha cracks were rangebound, trading at -$4.35/bbl in Nov post window, with Cal 27 bid at -$7.80/bbl. Spreads went bid, as Nov/Dec traded up from -$0.25/mt to $0.50/mt. E/W saw selling in Dec as it softened from $31.50/mt to $31/mt. MOPJ spreads finished the afternoon slightly stronger, firming from $3.75/mt to $4/mt in the front.
NGLs
This afternoon in NGLs, US trade buyside interest of Cal 26 FEI/MOPJ at -$48/mt with buy side interest also in the Nov-June FEI/MOPJ strip with trade buying 19k/mt a month from market makers at -$54/mt. Propane overall well supported this after with Dec/Dec LST trading up from -3c/gal to implied -2.25c/gal with Nov/Dec, Feb/March and Q1/Q2 LST trading up to -0.75c/gal, 1.25c/gal and 2.5c/gal respectively with LST prems up over 1c/gal over the afternoon. Dec/Jan FEI at -$5/mt this afternoon with US trade buying Q1 FEI at $476.5/mt. Bank sell side of Nov C4/C3 ENT this afternoon, with Nov trading up to 20.125c/gal.
